Statistics Analysis Suicide rate (group3)

Suicidal Incidents in South KoreaAnna Kim, Elham B., Ho Jun Paik, Jun Young Park, Jung Hoon Lee

SOS!!!

DEPRESSION

GRADES

Such

a

borin

g

topic

1. THE CONTENT OF THE PRESENTATION

Introduction

Literature review

Analysis, research findings

Variables (IV, CV, DV) and descriptive statistics and hypothesis

Regression

Conclusion

what we need to

learn

about SUICIDE?

SUICIDE PERMANENT solution for a TEMPORARY problem

KOREA HAS ONE OF THE HIGHEST SUICIDE RATES

IN OECD COUNTRIES FOR

11 YEARS *

also graying (aging) Korean

society…

Urgency for South Korean

society

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3284587/Learn-dead-day-Suicidal-people-locked-coffins-bizarre-death-experience-schools-South-Korea-40-people-kill-day.html

SUICIDE is 3rd leading cause of DEATH among young people*CAN SUICIDE BE PREVENTED?

a) Never, it is impossible

b) May be sometimes

c) Yes, it is possible but only in ADVANCE of acute risk

d) Yes, even up to the last moment

SUICIDE is 3rd leading cause of DEATH among young people*CAN SUICIDE BE PREVENTED?

a) Never, it is impossible

b) May be sometimes

c) Yes, it is possible but only in ADVANCE of acute risk

d) Yes, even up to the last moment

According to NATCOM Conference 2015*

Most suicides are planned They are not just impulsive events

When people are depressed they are NOT thinking, feeling normally. They need HELP

Suicide is preventable

DEPRESSION

GRADES PRESSURE

FROM

PARENTS,

OTHER

PEOPLE

SO

UNHA

PPY

!

NO

SOLUTION,

what

should I

DO?!

I DON’T NEED ANYONE ANYMORE NOBODY

CAN HELP

ME I HATE

THEM ALL

SOS!!!

SOS!!! DEPRESSION GRADE

S PRESSURE

FROM

PARENTS,

OTHER

PEOPLE

SO

UNHA

PPY

!

NO

SOLUTION,

what

should I

DO?!

I DON’T NEED ANYONE ANYMORE

NOBODY

CAN HELP

ME I HATE ALL

DEPRESSION

DEPRESSION

DEPR

ESSI

ON

DEPR

ESSIO

N

DEPRESSION

DEPRESSION

DEPRESSION

DEPRESSION

DEPRESSION DEPRESSION

DEPRESSION

PEOPLE at higher risk who has problems with:

Law

Depression

Being neglected and abused

Alcohol and drugs

Psychological problems, perfectionists

Etc.

HOW CAN I BE HAPPY if

I have EXAMS T.TARE Y

OU

HAPPY?

The problem

2. Our Questions

What are the factors cause suicidal rates? How can we change the situation? What should we start with?

Hypothesis:- People with higher level of education tend to have higher suicidal rates

NULL : Level of education does not have any effect on suicidal rates

3. ANALYSIS

Suicidal incident (DV)

Hypothesis:

- People with higher level of education tend to have higher suicidal rates - People with higher level of education tend to have lower suicidal rates

NULL : Level of education does not have any effect on suicidal rates

IV : level of education DV : suicidal incident

CV : age, income, number of family members, drinking frequency, exercise frequency, quality of nutrition, subjective image of oneself

Level of education(IV)

Hypothesis indicator Source*

Age Older people, more suicide 1~99

Korea National Health & Nutrition

Examination Survey

713 questions, 8018 observations in total

4507 observations after eliminating

blanks

Income Lower income, more suicide

Scale of 4 Low – many

Household size Smaller family, more suicide

Scale of 9 1~9

Drinking frequency More drinking, more suicide

Scale of 6No – many

Exercise frequency Less exercise, more suicide

Scale of 80~7 days a week

Quality of nutrition Less meals, more suicide

Scale of 4Plenty – insufficient

Subjective figure Fatter, more suicide Scale of 5 Skinny - fat

Education Persons with higher school attainment had significantly increased odds ratios of dying from a suicide rather than a natural cause. Individual with higher educational achievement may be more prone to suicide risk when facing failures, public shame, and high premorbid functioning.

Source : M. Pompili,M. Vichi,Ping Qin,M. Innamorati,D. De Leo,P. Girardi, Does the level of education influence completed suicide? A nationwide register study May 2013, Pages 437–440

Hypothesis : Higher level of education , higher suicidal incidents

EducationMean 2.812292

Standard Error 0.016293Median 3Mode 3

Standard Deviation 1.093823Sample Variance 1.196449

Kurtosis -1.02746Skewness -0.52631

Range 3Maximum 4Minimum 1

Sum 12675Count 4507

Geometric Mean 2.528435Harmonic Mean 2.186714

AAD 0.906902MAD 1IQR 2

There’s no significant data for this control variables in other conducted researches related to the size of the house and the risk of attempting suicide.

Hypothesis : Smaller the household size, high rate of suicidal risks

Household sizeMean 3.202352



Kurtosis -0.05621Skewness 0.271914


Sum 14433Count 4507



Household size

Suicide rates for teens and young adults increased dramatically from 1950 to 1990 (S. Kachur,1995).

Source : Suicide in the United States 1980-1991, Violence Surveillance Summary Series, No. 1 , S. Patrick Kachur, MD, MPH, Lloyd B. Potter, PhD, MPH, Stephen P. James, Kenneth E. Powell, MD, MPH

Hypothesis : Older people are more likely to commit suicide

AgeMean 46.56446



Kurtosis -0.79332Skewness 0.113559


Sum 209866Count 4507

Geometric Mean #NUM!Harmonic Mean 39.18044

AAD 14.31558MAD 13IQR 26

Age

The suicide rate is substantially elevated among alcoholics and that suicide is a cause of death for a substantial percentage of alcoholics (Pompili, 2010).

Source : Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2010 Apr; 7(4): 1392–1431

Hypothesis : More alcohol consumption, higher rate of suicidal rates

Alcohol Consumption

Mean 3.187486

Standard Error 0.023212

Median 3

Mode 4

Standard Deviation 1.558347

Sample Variance 2.428445

Kurtosis -1.18123

Skewness 0.064451

Range 5

Maximum 6

Minimum 1

Sum 14366

Count 4507

Geometric Mean 2.738142

Harmonic Mean 2.270033

AAD 1.371047

MAD 1

IQR 2

Alcohol Consumption

Lower income, simply to say lower social class or those who feel they are socioeconomic disadvantage are prone to vulnerable for suicide and suicidal attempts

Source : Beautrais AL, Collings SCD, Ehrhardt P, et al. 2005. Suicide Prevention: A review of evidence of risk and protective factors, and points of effective intervention. Wellington: Ministry of Health. P 39.

Hypothesis : Higher the income, lower the rate of suicidal incident

IncomeMean 2.519192



Kurtosis -1.35149Skewness -0.01501


Sum 11354Count 4507



Income

Exercise promotes a positive emotional-well being that participating at least in low-intensity activity demonstrates reduced risk of suicidal behavior.

Source : Lindsay A. Taliaferro, MS, MPH; Barbara A. Rienzo, PhD; R. Morgan Pigg Jr, HSD, MPH; M. David Miller, PhD; Virginia J. Dodd, PhD, MPH

Hypothesis : More exercise, reduced suicidal behavior

Exercise

Mean 2.037941


Median 1

Mode 1



Kurtosis 2.379803

Skewness 1.726969

Range 7

Maximum 8

Minimum 1

Sum 9185

Count 4507



AAD 1.262881

MAD 0

IQR 2

Exercise Frequency

Nutrition can have an impact on mental health as well as physical health. Insufficient nutrition affects our depression and feeling weak and this causes more suicide.

Source : Li Y, Zhang J, McKeown R. Cross-sectional assessment of diet quality in individuals with a lifetime history of attempted suicide. Psychiatry Res 2009; 165:111-9.

Hypothesis : Better nutrition, lower suicidal rates.

Nutrition

Mean 1.598624


Median 2

Mode 2



Kurtosis 0.756433

Skewness 0.721039

Range 3

Maximum 4

Minimum 1

Sum 7205

Count 4507



AAD 0.547754

MAD 1

IQR 1

Nutrition (Diet)

It is more vulnerable committing suicide to those who think they are not socially fit due to their own perception of their body figures. Results indicate that body satisfaction, as measured by the perception of being overweight, has strong impact on all suicidal behaviors.

Source D. Daveb, I. Rashad, Overweight status, self-perception, and suicidal behaviors among adolescent, May 2009, pages 1685-1691

Hypothesis : Perception of oneself being fatter, higher suicide incident.

Subjective figureMean 3.262037



Kurtosis 0.028355Skewness -0.35497


Sum 14702Count 4507

Geometric Mean #NUM!Harmonic Mean 2.881775


Subjective figure (Perception of oneself)

Regression coeff b s.e. Wald p-value exp(b) lower upper

INTERCEPT -1.64996 0.607554 7.375286 0.006613 0.192057

EDUCATION -0.27952 0.076838 13.23352 0.000275 0.756146 0.65043 0.879043

FAMILY -0.20244 0.067289 9.051585 0.002625 0.816732 0.715819 0.931871

AGE -0.00388 0.005085 0.582941 0.445162 0.996125 0.986248 1.006102

DRINKING 0.030692 0.044671 0.472039 0.49205 1.031167 0.944724 1.125521

INCOME -0.26887 0.071179 14.26886 0.000158 0.764241 0.664726 0.878654

EXERCISE -0.10042 0.052474 3.662436 0.055652 0.904455 0.816058 1.002428

NUTRITION 0.290662 0.108613 7.161669 0.007448 1.337313 1.08089 1.654567

FIGURE 0.115641 0.076082 2.310263 0.128522 1.122592 0.967078 1.303115

4.Research findingsEducation (p : 0.000275)

eleman

try ed

ucation an

d below

middle sch

ool educati

on and belo

w

high sc

hool educati

on and belo

w

colle

ge ed

ucation or h

igher

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

elementary education and below 0.126807694

middle school education and below 0.09894473

high school education and below 0.076666454

college education or higher 0.059075457

Possibility:higher education resulting in better jobs and higher life quality

LEVEL OF EDUCATION IV SUICIDAL INCIDENT

DV

Household size (p : 0.002625)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 80

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

1 member 0.135590492 2 members 0.113563057 3 members 0.094721972 4 members 0.078729157 5 members 0.065241961 6 members 0.053930021 7 members 0.044486054 8 members 0.036631834

Possibility: Bigger the household size, more responsibilities, resulting less suicidal thoughtsmore interaction among family members relieve stress

They may also have higher possibility of family members helping solve problems they face in life

HOUSEHOLD SIZEIV SUICIDAL INCIDENT

DV

Age (p : 0.445162)

12 0.07161535513 0.06865679614 0.06865679615 0.06865679616 0.06865679617 0.06865679618 0.068656796

~85 0.06865679686 0.06865679687 0.06865679688 0.06865679689 0.06865679690 0.06865679691 0.06865679692 0.068656796

Possibility:

Factors such as sickness, financial problems, or any sort of feeling of burden resulting in suicide or suicidal thoughts

1 8 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64 71 780

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

0.09

0.1

Series1

AGE IV

SUICIDAL INCIDENT DV

Drinking (p : 0.49205)

has not drunk for the

past year

less than

once a month

around once a month

2~4 times a month

2~3 times a week

more than 4 times a week

0.15

0.155

0.16

0.165

0.17

0.175

0.18

0.185

0.19

has not drunk for the past year 0.165305378less than once a month 0.169583802around once a month 0.173949884

2~4 times a month 0.1784042252~3 times a week 0.182947367

more than 4 times a week 0.187579787

Possibility: Drinking may be a result of stress, and that is the reason why more drinking cause higher suicidal rates Or, more drinking causes have negative effects on daily life, unable to function properly, and also impulsive action

DRINKING FREQUENCY IV SUICIDAL INCIDENT

DV

Income (p : 0.000158)

lowest income

mid-low income

mid-high income

high income0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

lowest income 0.127991523

mid-low income 0.100859829

mid-high income 0.078958745

high income 0.061488125

Possibility:Lower income generally causes more hardships in life, resulting in higher suicidal thoughts

Must think about the opposite, higher income jobs might have higher responsibilities

INCOME IV

SUICIDAL INCIDENT DV

Exercise (p : 0.055652)

exerci

se once a w

eek

exerci

se twice

a week

exerci

se thric

e a week

exerci

se four ti

mes a w

eek

exerci

se five times a

week

exerci

se six times a

week

exerci

se seve

n times a w

eek0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

exercise once a week 0.147998598exercise twice a week 0.135778086exercise thrice a week 0.124419287

exercise four times a week 0.113885511exercise five times a week 0.104137492exercise six times a week 0.095134274

exercise seven times a week 0.086833983

Possibility:Exercise can be seen as healthy activity More exercise causes healthier body and mind

Spending more time being busy, less time to be depressed?

EXERCISE FREQUENCYIV SUICIDAL INCIDENT

DV

Nutrition (Diet) (p : 0.007448)

plenty to eat

in quantitiy a

nd diversi

ty

plenty to eat

in quantitiy,

not in dive

rsity

sometime had

hard times e

ating

frequently

had hard

times eati

ng0

0.050.1

0.150.2

0.250.3

0.350.4

plenty to eat in quantitiy and diversity 0.204353936

plenty to eat in quantitiy, not in diversity 0.255662003

sometime had hard times eating 0.314756066

frequently had hard times eating 0.380526308

Possibility: Lower income, lower life qualityInsufficient nutrition, depressed and feeling weak

DIET IV SUICIDAL INCIDENT

DV

Subjective figure (p : 0.128522)

very skinny

slightly skinny

normal slightly fat

very fat0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

very skinny 0.177362146

slightly skinny 0.194868317

normal 0.213653629

slightly fat 0.233724152

very fat 0.255068516

Possibility: (sitomania, addephagia) unable to fit to modern standards, depression tendency to not eat, weaker minds

SUBJECTIVE FIGUREIV SUICIDAL INCIDENT

DV

5. LimitationsDefinition of Logistics Regression• Regression model where DV is

categorical

Definition of Binary DV• DVs that have two values

Problems of Logistics Regression• Treat the same set of problems as

‘Probit’ regression using similar techniques

5-2. Limitations BeyondThe possible ERROR in the data our team have gathered by Korean National Health & Nutrition Examination Survey

The AGE SAMPLE of this survey were NOT applicable with the info of the survey

The study was NOT able to consider some factors that can impact the suicide rate

• Mental Disease• Prevalence Rate• Accessibility of Medical Services

6. ConclusionTherefore, as opposed to our first thoughts and expectations, our figures show that the higher education actually leads to the lower rate of suicidal incidents

Implications and Recommendation

Our studies show that…People who are more dedicated to increase their quality of lives by exercising more andachieving higher education levels have lower suicidal rates

DON’T

WORRY

BE HAPPY!