Structural Transformation as a Pathway to Food Security: Comparative Analysis of Dynamic Trends in Central Asian Countries

REGIONAL RESEARCH CONFERENCE

AGRICULTURAL TRANSFORMATION AND

FOOD SECURITY IN CENTRAL ASIA

Structural Transformation as a Pathway to Food Security: Comparative Analysis of Dynamic Trends in Central Asian Countries

Kamiljon T. Akramov, IFPRI, Washington, DC

With contributions from Allen Park and Noah Cohen-Cline

April 8-9, 2014

Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan

Reforms, diversification and growth in Central Asian agriculture

• Since early 1990s agrarian reforms have included…• Reduction of government involvement in decision-making• Land reform and farm reorganization• Formation of markets and institutions

• Reforms stimulated agricultural diversification • Land allocation patterns changed in favor of food and high value

agriculture• Yields in food and high value agriculture continually increasing

• During the last decade the region enjoyed strong agricultural and economic growth• Per capita incomes increased and poverty significantly

declined • Nevertheless, the countries of the region still haven’t

achieved stable food and nutrition security• Stunting rates vary from 13% (Kazakhstan) to 39% (Tajikistan)

Selected food security indicators (2010-2012)

Average dietary

energy supply

adequacy, %

Food

imports/Total

merchandise

exports, %

Per capita food

production

variability

Depth of the

Food Deficit

(kcal/capita/day

)

Prevalence of

undernourishm

ent, %

Armenia 121 50 13 17 <5

Azerbaijan 129 17 9.8 11 <5

Georgia 117 50 27.3 221 24.7

Kazakhstan 144 3 23.1 3 <5

Kyrgyzstan 120 25 2.7 43 6.4

Tajikistan 100 34 5.8 262 31.7

Turkmenistan 127 3 20.6 19 <5

Uzbekistan 115 7 11.2 41 6.1

Bangladesh 107 21 2.5 122 16.8

Nepal 113 50 3.3 126 18.0

Yemen 99 31 1.4 215 32.4

Source: FAO (2013); Akramov & Shredhar (2012)







Pathways to food security: from short-run to long-run and from macro to micro

Short Run Long Run

Macro - Food price stability and the role of grain reserves and international trade

- Safety net policy to protect the poor and the budget implications of these transfers

- Policies for creating inclusive economic growth including fiscal, monetary, exchange rate and trade policies

Micro- Vulnerability to price

shocks- Resilience to external

shocks- Receipts from safety nets

- Poverty reduction and stable access to nutritious and healthy food

Source: Timmer (forthcoming)

Successful structural transformation is necessary for achieving stable food security in long run

• Four elements of successful structural transformation (Timmer 2013)• Declining share of agriculture in GDP & employment

• Narrowing gap in labor productivity between agriculture & non-agriculture

• Urbanization

• Demographic transition

• Structural transformation accompanies two other transformations

• Agricultural transformation

• Dietary transformation

• What is the evidence on these transformations in Central Asia?

Land and labor productivity in CAC agriculture (1990-2010) – “Ruttan-a-gram”

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200

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500 1000 2000 4000

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GAO per economically-active worker in agriculture (USD/worker)

Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan

Land and labor productivity in Central Asian agriculture (1990-2010) – “Ruttan-a-gram”

Kazakhstan: Structural transformationIndustry Services Agriculture

1990 52.3 36.4 11.3

2000 40.5 50.8 8.7

2011 40.1 54.3 5.5

1990 NA NA NA

2000 20 53.2 26.7

2011 19 54.6 26.5

Share of GDP, %

Share of Employment, %

Kyrgyzstan: Structural transformation Industry Services Agriculture

1992 37.8 23.2 30

2000 32.1 31.3 36.6

2011 29.8 52.1 18

1992 22.5 39.3 38.1

2000 10.5 36.4 53.1

2011 21 48.3 30.7

Share of GDP, %


Tajikistan: Structural transformationIndustry Services Agriculture

1992 46.1 26.5 27.4

2000 38.4 34.3 27.3

2011 25.3 47.8 26.9

1992 20.0 33.2 46.8

2000 6.9 28.2 64.9

2011 4 29 67

Share of GDP, %


Uzbekistan: Structural transformationIndustry Services Agriculture

1990 32.5 43.7 23.8

2000 23.1 42.5 34.4

2012 32.4 48.7 18.9

1990 27.9 39.4 32.7

2000 12.7 52.8 34.4

2012 13.0 59.8 27.2

Share of GDP, %


Structural transformation paths in Central Asia: Summary

Employment in agriculture

Increasing Decreasing

Income differential

Narrowing

A) Farmer developing

B) Lewis Path

Kyrgyzstan

Uzbekistan

Growing C) Lewis trap

Tajikistan

D) Farmer excluding

Kazakhstan

Demographic transition and dividend in Central Asian countries

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100

Share of Working-Age Population (20-59 years old)

Projected East Asia Kazakhstan Uzbekistan Tajikistan Turkmenistan Kyrgyzstan South Asia

Kazakhstan: Composition of calorie intake

Kyrgyzstan: Composition of calorie intake

Tajikistan: Composition of calorie intake

Uzbekistan: Composition of calorie intake

Conclusions

• Structural transformation is a sustainable way to achieve food and nutrition security

• Uneven patterns of continuing structural transformation in the region presents serious problems for policymakers

• Investment in agriculture and rural infrastructure is necessary to raise productivity in the sector

• Promoting labor-intensive manufacturing might be needed to absorb surplus labor from the agricultural sector

Thank you for your attention

Education

Structural Transformation as a Pathway to Food Security: Comparative Analysis of Dynamic Trends in Central Asian Countries