Survey 20110930 v1

SurveyFoundation Roundtable on

“Future Cities and Regions”Bankinter & Kauffman Foundation

Jim Spohrer, [email protected] 30, 2011

Madrid, Spain

Questions• => What are some of the key opportunities for the development of cities and regions regarding

initiatives to foster economic development, entrepreneurship and innovation? How will technology and green innovation help facilitate these developments? Can you suggest some existing developments or practices which we might discuss further in the meeting?

=> What are some of the challenges for the development of cities and regions? How might those be overcome? What kind of public private partnerships will be needed and how can they best be developed? Can you suggest some existing examples which we might discuss further in the meeting?

=> What are some of the main differences between cities and regions that are innovative vs those that are less so? Why are some cities more resilient over time (i.e. able to transform and adapt over time) than others?

=> What facilitates high growth entrepreneurship in certain cities and regions? What are the necessary components of the entrepreneurial ecosystem?

=> What other questions or topics should we make sure are addressed at the meeting?

Key Opportunities• What are some of the key opportunities for the development of cities

and regions regarding initiatives to foster economic development, entrepreneurship and innovation? – Smarter Planet, Energy & Material Flows

• Short-term: Smarter buildings & asset management• Long-term: Robotic construction & deconstruction of buildings

– Cloud Computing, Mobile & Social Computing (XaaS)– Analytics & Deep QA (IBM Watson Supercomputer)– Smart Specialization (more on this later, including bio, nano, etc.)

• How will technology and green innovation help facilitate these developments? – See slides, Energy & Smarter Buildings

• Can you suggest some existing developments or practices which we might discuss further in the meeting?– See slide, Tulane University, New Orleans, USA

© 2011 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)

Complex Buildings: Luxury Hotelshttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hm7MeZlS5fo

© 2011 IBM CorporationIBM University Programs worldwide accelerating regional development (IBM UPward)

Good Book

How much energy do we use?

– Range for nations

– 6 to 600 Gigajoules per capita per annum

– 600 Gigajoules?

• ~100 Barrel of Oil• ~100 Solar Panel/Yr

How can we get better at back of the envelop calculations about sustainable energy?

– Read the book

© 2011 IBM Corporation

Smarter Buildings on a Smarter Planet

6

The need for efficiency in buildings is clear

2nd

Real estate is the 2nd largest expense on the income statement.

50%

Up to 50% of energy and water in buildings are often wasted.

2025

By 2025, buildings will be the #1 consumer of energy.

2x

Data center energy use doubling every 5 years.



7

The benefits from improving building efficiency are real

18% rise in productivity

Employee productivity increased up to 18% on average.

91%occupancy

Higher buildingusage and re-up rates insmarter buildings.

40%reduction

Energy usage reduced by up to 40% and maintenance cost 10-30%.

65% of occupants

Willing to help make their workplace more environmentally responsible.



8

FireFunctionality

checks,Detector service

WaterSmart Meters,

Use / Flow Sensing

HVACFans, Variable Air

Volume, Air Quality

ElevatorsMaintenance, Performance

Access/SecurityBadge in,

Cameras, IntegrationPerimeter, Doors, Floors, Occupancy

LightingOccupancy

Sensing

24/7 MonitoringCondition Monitoring, Parking Lot Utilization

EnergySmart Meters,

Demand response

How does a building operate today?

Building Systems

Community Services

Transportation, Traffic, Events

Community Services

Transportation, Traffic, Events

UtilitiesDemand Mgmt,

Cost Control

UtilitiesDemand Mgmt,

Cost Control

WeatherCurrent

Predictions

WeatherCurrent

Predictions

Emergency Services

Alerts, Actions

Emergency Services

Alerts, Actions

Commercial Potential

Advertisement

Commercial Potential

Advertisement

Building & Communications Services

Facilities Managem

ent Processes Inte

ract

ion

with

Ext

erna

lities

PortfolioEstates MgmtPortfolio

Estates Mgmt

OccupancySpace Mgmt

OccupancySpace Mgmt

Waste MgmtTrash/Water/Recycle

Waste MgmtTrash/Water/Recycle

ComplianceEnvironmental reports

ComplianceEnvironmental reports

Tenant ServicesHelp Desk

Tenant ServicesHelp Desk

Asset MgmtLifecycle

Asset MgmtLifecycle

Building ServicesMaintenance

Building ServicesMaintenance

Industry Specific Hospital, hotel, etc.

Industry Specific Hospital, hotel, etc.

Energy UsePassive/ActiveEnergy UsePassive/Active

© 2011IBM CorporationIBM University Programs worldwide, accelerating regional development (IBM UPward)

University as Complex Enterprise (City Within City)

Universities can be the innovation centers for Smarter Cities (U-BEE)University-Based Entrepreneurial Ecosystems

Cities can be living labs for University research

Universities produce the skilled workforce for cities.

Universities are among the largest employers (top 10) in a city.

Universities faculty, deans, provosts, presidents are often well connected & influential in city governments.

IBM and Tulane University Usher in a New Era for Smarter Buildings in New Orleans

http://www-03.ibm.com/press/us/en/pressrelease/34694.wss

As the largest private employer in the City of New Orleans, Tulane University has made significant advances in rebuilding in more environmentally sustainable ways both the community at large and its campus

The IBM project is helping to transform the home of Tulane's School of Architecture, the century-old Richardson Memorial Hall, into a "smarter building living laboratory," using IBM Intelligent Building Management while maintaining respect for its historic status


Infrastructure: Smarter Buildings Examples

SMART ISSolving building systems shortcomings with the most appropriate, effective & energy efficient approaches.

Tulane University:Connecting to existing building systems to collect metered data; incorporating advanced analytics to uncover sub optimal conditions; bringing disparate data together to drive better decision making and measurably reduce overall energy costs..

IBM Rochester, MN:Incremental energy savings of approximately 5% yearly through various improvements and programs; after the installation of IBM Intelligent Building Management, the team achieved an incremental 8% savings.

SMART ISIntegration of energy and asset management to lower operating cost.

SMART ISOptimizing energy consumption lowers operating costs and reduces carbon emissions.

Bryant University:An IT initiative to create an energy-efficient data center shifted to a partnership between IT & Facilities to construct smarter buildings. A 15% reduction in energy use and 50% reduction in floor space in the data center are helping to reduce Bryant’s carbon footprint..


Universities Enable Watson in the Grand Challenge of Jeopardy !

Assisted in the development of the Open Advancement of Question-Answering Initiative (OAQA) architecture and methodology

Pioneered an online natural language question answering system called START, which provided the ability to answer questions with high precision using information from semi-structured and structured information repositories

Worked to extend the capabilities of Watson, with a focus on extensive common sense knowledge

Focused on large-scale information extraction, parsing, and knowledge inference technologies

Worked on a visualization component to visually explain to external audiences the massively parallel analytics skills it takes for the Watson computing system to break down a question and formulate a rapid and accurate response to rival a human brain

Provided technological advancement enabling a computing system to remember the full interaction, rather than treating every question like the first one - simulating a real dialogue

Explored advanced machine learning techniques along with rich text representations based on syntactic and semantic structures for the Watson’s optimization

Worked on information retrieval and text search technologies

http://w3.ibm.com/news/w3news/top_stories/2011/02/chq_watson_wrapup.html

Key Challenges• What are some of the challenges for the development of cities and

regions? – Distinction: Legacy Cities & Brand New Cities– Legacy Cities: Financial constraints, See IBM report & Gathering Storm– Brand New Cities: Disenfranchised, See McKinsey report

• How might those be overcome? – Short-term Legacy Cities: Shared Service & Cloud Computing– Long-term Brand New Cities: Charter Cities, Romer

• What kind of public private partnerships will be needed and how can they best be developed?– Triple-Helix: Academic, Industry, Government

• Can you suggest some existing examples which we might discuss further in the meeting?– See slide

© 2011 IBM CorporationIBM University Programs worldwide, accelerating regional development (IBM UPward)

Recent McKinsey Study and IBM StudyToday, major urban areas in developed regions are, without doubt, economic giants. Half of global GDP in 2007 came from 380 cities in developed regions, with more than 20 percent of global GDP coming from 190 North American cities alone. The 220 largest cities in developing regions contributed another 10 percent. But by 2025, one-third of these developed market cities will no longer make the top 600; and one out of every 20 cities in emerging markets is likely to see their rank drop out of the top 600. By 2025, 136 new cities are expected to enter the top 600, all of them from the developing world and overwhelmingly—100 new cities—from China.

The performance of core systems of today’s cities is fundamental to social and economic progress. Faced with major challenges, these systems can be improved and optimized through the application of smart solutions.


Understanding the Human-Made World

See Paul Romer’s Charter Cities Video: http://www.ted.com/talks/paul_romer.html

Also see: Symbolic Species, DeaconCompany of Strangers, SeabrightSciences of the Artificial, Simon


Connecting Universities, IBM, and Governments

GlobalResearch Labs

Smarter Planet Solutions &Platforms

Sci Net Consortium

Mega Scale Centers of Competency

HSCCI

Innovation Showcase Centers

On Campus Collaborations

Services Research Institute

Collaboratory for Services Science

Grand Challenge Centers


Public Private Partnerships

Sci Net Consortium at Sci Net Consortium at University of TorontoUniversity of Toronto

IBM & University of IBM & University of Melbourne Collaboratory for Melbourne Collaboratory for Life Sciences ResearchLife Sciences Research

King Abdullah University of King Abdullah University of Science & Technology Science & Technology (KAUST)(KAUST)

IBM & Rice University to Tackle IBM & Rice University to Tackle Smarter Healthcare Challenges Smarter Healthcare Challenges with HPC POWER7with HPC POWER7


Computational Center for Nanotechnology Innovation ( CCNI ) Established in 2007, CCNI is a $100M collaboration

between IBM, RPI, and the NYS for Nanotechnology Research at Rensselaer Technology Park

7 projects in process with multimillion co-investment in research funding provided to RPI from NSF, DOE, NIH, major corporations and others

Engaged w/ major industrials (Kodak, Xerox, GE) to sell system time and spur economic development for NYS

Initial IBM seed funding via SUR award in 2006

Conducting breakthrough research in aerospace, astrophysics, bioinformatics, chemical physics, climate change prediction and medical imaging

Ranked # 15 on the TOP500 supercomputer list

Most powerful & energy efficient supercomputer in Canada

Supported by multiple SUR and faculty awards

Sci Net Consortium at University of Toronto

Energy Efficient (Green) Data Center at Syracuse University

A 6,000 sq ft data center featuring its own electrical tri-generation system & incorporating IBM’s latest energy-efficient computers and computer-cooling technology

Expected to use 50 percent less energy than a typical data center

Multimillion co-investment in equipment, design services & support, which includes supplying electrical cogeneration equipment & IBM BladeCenter servers

New York State Energy Research & Development Authority (NYSERDA) co-investing

KAUST is a new graduate level research university located in Saudi Arabia w/ research focus on biosciences and bioengineering, materials science and applied mathematics and computational science

Multimillion co-investment in joint research & support of the Research Center For Deep Computing.

The Shaheen 16 rack BG-P HPC system serves as the cornerstone and ranks # 14 on the TOP500 list of supercomputers

King Abdullah University of Science & Technology (KAUST)

Examples… Regional Innovation Clusters (Nanotech and Greentech)


IBM & University of Melbourne Collaboratory for Life Sciences Research IBM Collaboratory

The university & IBM established a research collaboratory located at Parkville campus with linkage to IBM Watson

Multimillion investment over 5 years to establis Victorian Life Sciences Computation Initiative (VLSCI)

IBM to supply iDataplex and BG-P (2010) / BG-Q (2012) systems as foundation for the collaboration in the “Blue Gene Room” (data center) which will be under IBM’s control

Examples… Regional Innovations Clusters (High Performance Computing)

IBM & Rice University to Tackle Smarter Healthcare Challenges w/ HPC POWER7 Architecture

Research partnership dubbed BlueBioU with Rice’s MD Anderson Cancer Center (MDACC) and Cancer Prevention & Research Institute of Texas

First system deployed IBM’s new POWER7 microprocessors, making it especially attractive for researchers faced with computationally demanding and memory-intensive problems in the study of cancer, AIDS and other complex diseases.

Seeding w/ SUR award in 1Q/10

HPC Shared Services Initiative w/ Univ of California System

First of kind project w/ UC System

Split install of iDataplex nodes at UCSD and UCB

Supporting 25 faculty & researchers across 10 campus, 5 medical system infrastructure

Pilot installation w/ opportunity for future extensions to support expanding research community w/i UC System for digital media, virtual realities, on line gaming

Research collaboration to create the Center for Computation & Visualization at Brown for the State of Rhode Island

The new most powerful supercomputer in the state, will power healthcare, environmental, oceanic and planetary research by a group of universities, hospitals, and businesses collaborating w/ IBM

Supported w/ SUR award in 3Q/09

IBM & Brown University to Tackle Grand Challenges w/ Supercomputing Technology


Examples… Regional Innovation Clusters (Smarter Cities)

IBM, Imperial College, government & industry partners to invest ~ $81M for Digital City Research project to develop & implement the next generation infrastructure, systems & services to modernize cities (i.e. make cities smarter)

Goals include connecting citizens to real time intelligence, bring value through smart decision making, generating commercial, creative and social opportunities to enhance quality of life

In addition catalyse the next generation of digital services in healthcare, energy, transportation and creative industries.

Proposed Collaboration w/ Imperial College London : Digital City Lab (DCL)

SUR Project : Smarter Infrastructure Lab for Smarter Cities

MOU signed creating SI Lab collaboration taking a system of systems view of a university managed like a smart city using sensors, data, and analytics

Goals include development of fixed & mobile infrastructure analytics technologies & solutions for a smarter city (e.g. smart water, waste, buildings, energy, transportation, healthcare, environment, etc.). Also to provide a showcase for client visits & demonstrations of IBM Smarter Cities technologies

Future proposal to have lab become part of larger Pennsylvania Smarter Infrastructure Incubator Initiative

SUR Project : Smarter City Solutions For China

Tongji University signed a Smarter City Initiative collaboration agreement aimed at building and providing integrated IBM Smarter City solutions for China

Goal of collaboration is to overcome the current silo decision making by different government ministries and to provide a city mayor and other decision makers an integrated Smarter City framework, solution package, and a real life city model

ToJU will partner with IBM on Smart City projects based on ToJU's urban planning work in several cities (Shanghai Pudong, Hangzhou & Yiwu )

Proposed Collaboration w/ MIT : Urban Service Systems Center for Smarter Cities

Leverage best-of-breed Smarter Cities schools, centers and departments at MIT by launching a new Urban Service Systems Research Center run jointly by IBM and MIT

Holistic modeling of smarter cities systems of systems to optimize outcomes using real-time data analysis and behavior modeling

Emphasis on shared service, new job creation and policy making for smarter cities


SUR Project: HPC Cloud For Traffic Flow Improvements

Faculty Award: Building Sustainable Water Resource Management

MIT Center for Educational Computing teams with Ghana Telecom Univ College and Makerere University in South Africa utilizing IBM’s LotusLive hosting Students from these universities will collaborate to collect archival material on bcontributions for the Robert E. Taylor archive (Robert E Taylor was the first black graduate in architecture at MIT)

Students will be developing connection code between IBM’s LotusLive services that live in IBM’s cloud and MIT’s servers

Examples… Tandem Awards – Driving Partnerships Between Major & Growth Markets

University of Conn (USA) teaming up with Addis Ababa, Mekele and Hawassa Universities in Ethiopia and US Agency for International Development (USAID)

UCONN faculty member from Ethiopia spearheading project to work with country government agencies to create an institute for sustainable water resources.

Focus of institute is on water management for both urban and rural locations

Egypt Japan Univ of Sci & Tech (E-JUST) and Waseda University in Japan collaborate on a pilot project utilizing IBM’s HPC CloudBurst technology

Partnering to develop multi-agent traffic simulations for Alexandria City and it’s suburbs with the goal of improving traffic flow & reducing traffic jams

Via a close partnership w/ Waseda University, students will be co-supervised by faculty from both schools and build on successful Japanese traffic system models for Tokyo

Erasmus University’s Center for Optimization of Public Transport (ECOPT) and IBM’s Global Rail Innovation Center in China join forces to focus on railway failures in the Netherlands

Goal to develop an analytic framework/solution to coordinate and optimize the rescheduling of timetables, trains, and crew after a major disruption; and build a POC based on data from the Netherlands Railway

The project will be based on iLog support provided by IBM’s GRIC in Beijing

SUR Project: Dynamic Rescheduling of Railway Transportation

SUR Project: Building a Network & Archive


Smarter Planet Awards (Sample of 192: See Speaker Notes)

Ttransportation

Wwater

Pproducts

Eenergy

Ccommunication

Bbuildings

Rretail

Ffinance

Hhealth

Eeducation

Ggovernment

US 3 8 3 11 41 2 1 5 7 17

DV 6 4 4 5 18 1 6 5 1 10

EM 4 6 1 3 20 3 2 2 6

SUR 8 8 3 9 2 1 2 4 6

OCR 1 1 15 6 5

FAC 4 7 5 9 35 2 4 3 8 12

PHD 3 27 12

TOTAL 13 18 8 19 79 3 4 8 8 8 24

Column’s Explained in More Detail on Next Slide


US National Academy of Engineering Grand ChallengesA. Systems that focus on flow of things humans need

1. Transportation & Supply Chain

Restore and enhance urban infrastructure

2. Water & Waste/Climate & Green tech

Provide access to clear water

3. Food & Products

Manager nitrogen cycle

4. Energy & Electricity

Make solar energy economical

Provide energy from fusion

Develop carbon sequestration methods

5. Information & Communication Technology

Enhance virtual reality

Secure cyberspace

Reverse engineer the brain

B. Systems that focus on human activity & development6. Buildings & Construction (smart spaces)

Restore and enhance urban infrastructure

7. Retail & Hospitality/Media & Entertainment (tourism)

Enhance virtual reality

8. Banking & Finance/Business & Consulting

9. Healthcare & Family Life

Advance health informatics

Engineer better medicines

Reverse engineer the brain

10. Education & Work Life/Jobs & Entrepreneurship

Advance personalized learning

Engineer the tools of scientific discovery

C. Systems that focus on human governance11. City & Security

Restore and improve urban infrastructure

Secure cyberspace

Prevent nuclear terror

12. State/Region & Development

13. Nation & Rights


Our ambition is to reach K-12 students with Service Science & STEM: “The systems we live in, and the systems we are…”

“Imagine smarter systems, explain why better (service systems & STEM language)”STEM = Science, Technology, Engineering, and MathematicsSee NAE K-12 engineering report: http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12635

See Challenge-Based Learning: http://www.nmc.org/news/nmc/nmc-study-confirms-effectiveness-challenge-based-learning

Challenge-based Project to Design Improved Service Systems

– K - Transportation & Supply Chain

– 1 - Water & Waste Recycling

– 2 - Food & Products (Nano)

– 3 - Energy & Electric Grid

– 4 – Information/ICT & Cloud (Info)

– 5 - Buildings & Construction

– 6 – Retail & Hospitality/Media & Entertainment (tourism)

– 7 – Banking & Finance/Business & Consulting

– 8 – Healthcare & Family Life/Home (Bio)

– 9 – Education /Campus & Work Life/Jobs & Entrepreneurship (Cogno)

– 10 – City (Government)

– 11 – State/Region (Government)

– 12 – Nation (Government)

– Higher Ed – T-shaped depth added, cross-disciplinary project teams

– Professional Life – Adaptive T-shaped life-long-learning & projects

Systemsthat focus onGoverning

Systemsthat focus on

Human Activities andDevelopment

Systemsthat focus onFlow of things


Systems-Disciplines FrameworkSystems that focus on flows of things Systems that governSystems that support people’s activities

transportation & supply chain water &

waste

food &products

energy & electricity

building & construction

healthcare& family

retail &hospitality banking

& finance

ICT &cloud

education &work

citysecure

statescale

nationlaws

social sciences

behavioral sciences

management sciences

political sciences

learning sciences

cognitive sciences

system sciences

information sciences

organization sciences

decision sciences

run professions

transform professions

innovate professions

e.g., econ & law

e.g., marketing

e.g., operations

e.g., public policy

e.g., game theory and strategy

e.g., psychology

e.g., industrial eng.

e.g., computer sci

e.g., knowledge mgmt

e.g., stats & design

e.g., knowledge worker

e.g., consultant

e.g., entrepreneur

stake

holders Customer

Provider

Authority

Competitors

resources

People

Technology

Information

Organizations

change History

(Data Analytics)

Future(Roadmap)

value

Run

Transform(Copy)

Innovate(Invent)

Starting Point 1: Observe the Stakeholders (As-Is)

Starting Point 2: Observe their Resource Access (As-Is)

Change Potential: Think It! (Has-Been & Might-Become & To-Be)

Value Realization: Do It Together! (New As-Is)

disciplines

systems


Students for a Smarter Planet

YouTube - animated!!– http://www.youtube.com/watch?v

=P7bEyPrtFHM

and another– http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WklJujtIip4

Tweet comments to…– @wendywolfie

Continuously Improving Product-Service Systems = Smarter Systems

– Simplify the message

– Provide advanced organizers

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P7bEyPrtFHM



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WklJujtIip4


Proposed Guidelines

Please send feedback to Wendy Murphy

– [email protected]

Help us devise better ways to visualize scope of service science

For use with:– Students– Faculty– Practitioners– Policy-makers– Scientists & Engineers– Government officials


What is service science? A service system? The ABC’s?

Economics & Law

Design/ Cognitive Science Systems

Engineering

OperationsComputer Science/

Artificial Intelligence

Marketing

“a service system is ahuman-made system to improve provider-customer interactionsand value-cocreation outcomes,

by dynamically configuring resourceaccess via value propositions,

most often studied by many disciplines,one piece at a time.”

“service science isthe transdisciplinary study of

service systems &value-cocreation”

The ABC’s:The provider (A)

and a customer (B)transform a target (C)


IBM Centennial: Icon of Progress


What are T-shaped professionals?Ready for Life-Long-LearningReady for T-eamworkReady to Help Build a Smarter Planet

SSME+D = Service Science, Management, Engineering + Design

Many disciplines(understanding & communications)

Many systems(understanding & communications)

Deep in one discipline

(ana

lytic thinking & problem

solving)

Deep in one system

(analytic thinking & problem

solving)

Many multi-cultural-team service projects completed(resume: outcomes, accomplishments & awards)

BREADTH

DE

PT

H

Key Differences

• What are some of the main differences between cities and regions that are innovative vs those that are less so? – See next slide

• Why are some cities more resilient over time (i.e. able to transform and adapt over time) than others?– In a word, governance – see McKinsey study– Quality of regional university to create “flux”


What are the characteristics of highly innovative regions?

Frequent Alignment Meetings (monthly, quarterly, annual)– City’s Innovation Roadmap (Mayor’s Office)

– University’s Innovation Roadmap (President of University)

– Incubator’s Innovation Roadmap (Head of University-based Incubator)

– Smart Specialization (LNU Vaxjo Wood, UA Tuscon Border Security, etc.)

Local Role Model(s) – Investment in Risk-Taking– Local success stories and role models

– Ideally, a billionaire local entrepreneur & Foundation

– Between $1-10M annual investment in entrepreneurship programs & local incubator

Local Culture – “Just Say Yes to Entrepreneurs”– University as a first customer (e.g., Facebook), City as a second customer

– Sometimes “born global” on the cloud, but first “real” customer is somewhere

– Smarter local risk-taking, smarter global scale-out planning

Early Identification and Alignment with Scale-Up Partner– Which firms/organizations already have many customers that will need the innovation

– Finding ways to establish win-win growth strategies as early as possible


University-Based Entrepreneurial Ecosystems (U-BEEs)

Do you know that (from NCET2):

More than three quarters of post-1995 increase in productivity growth could be traced to science investments [D. W. Jorgenson, M. S. Ho, K. J. Stiroh, J. Econ. Perspect. 22, 3 (2008)]

1/3 of SBIRs reported involvement with a university including founder was a former academic, faculty were consultants, universities were subcontractors, or graduate students were employed

20 year returns for Early/Seed VCs was 20.6%, compared to 13.8% for Later Stage VCs and 8.2% for the S&P 500

8 percent of all university startups go public, in comparison to a "going public rate" of only 0.07 percent for other U.S. enterprises - a 114x difference

over 400 university startups are created nationally each year based on federally funded R&D, which included Google, Netscape, Genentech, Lycos, Sun Microsystems, Silicon Graphics, and Cisco Systems

Between 1980 and 2005, virtually all net new jobs created in the U.S. were created by firms that were 5 years old or less

68% of university startups created between 1980 to 2000 remained in business in 2001, while regular startups experienced a 90% failure rate during that same time period

Other Topics

• What other questions or topics should we make sure are addressed at the meeting?

– Exponential Change Thinking (Singularity U)– Systems Thinking (Service Science)– “Gathering Storm” Report


What are the benefits of top-ranked universities?% WW GDP and % WW Top-500-Universities

Japan

ChinaGermany

France

United KingdomItaly

Russia SpainBrazilCanada

IndiaMexico AustraliaSouth Korea

NetherlandsTurkey

Sweden

y = 0,7489x + 0,3534R² = 0,719

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

% g

loba

l G

DP

% top 500 universities

Strong Correlation (2009 Data): National GDP and University Rankingshttp://www.upload-it.fr/files/1513639149/graph.html

Universities connect innovation flows between Regions (“High Speed Bus”)

World as System of SystemsWorld (light blue - largest)Nations (green - large)States (dark blue - medium)Cities (yellow - small)Universities (red - smallest)

Cities as System of Systems-Transportation & Supply Chain-Water & Waste Recycling-Food & Products ((Nano)-Energy & Electricity-Information/ICT & Cloud (Info)-Buildings & Construction-Retail & Hospitality/Media & Entertainment-Banking & Finance-Healthcare & Family (Bio)-Education & Professions (Cogno)-Government (City, State, Nation)

Nations: Innovation Opportunities- GDP/Capita (level and growth rate)- Energy/Capita (fossil and renewable)

Developed MarketNations

(> $20K GDP/Capita)

Emerging MarketNations

(< $20K GDP/Capita)

IBM UP WW: Tandem Awards: Increasing university linkages (knowledge exchange interactions)


Why I am so optimistic about the future…

“The future is already here… It is just not evenly distributed.” – Gibson– Yesterday, I said that universities are central to a profound societal transformation.

Universities are re-inventing themselves to be at the center of a whole new generation of university-based entrepreneurial ecosystems (U-BEEs) in major urban areas around the world. Within 20 years this transformation will be quite apparent and some of us truly anticipate that walking onto the most successful university campuses will be like walking 5 or even 10 years into the future.

– The transformation of universities of today into the U-BEEs of tomorrow is hinted at in this quote by John Sexton President of NYU. The key insight is the connection between great universities (as attractors of young minds) and great cities (a canvas on which they may paint in the future). The mission of universities to inspire and enable the next generation with new knowledge, not simply to fill a role and participate in society as in previous centuries, but to re-imagine society and build it better.

– What universities today is doing the best job of realizing this vision? Let’s take a look at a new upstart, non-traditional, break the mold university known as Singularity University.

– However, before describing SU, I cannot resist mentioning an important side-effect of this transformation from 19th century universities to 21st century U-BEEs… At long last the existing 19th century K-12 education system will also re-invent itself and begin to inspire and enable students. They will move beyond the 19th century model of producing students as standardized widgets like product rolling off an assembly line. These coming societal transformations make me very excited and optimistic about the future and a bit envious of future generations of students who will have toys and tools we can barely imagine today…


From 19th Century Universities To 21st Century U-BEEs

Example: Singularity University– http://singularity.org

Mission– Our mission is to assemble, educate and inspire a cadre of leaders who

strive to understand and facilitate the development of exponentially advancing technologies to address humanity’s challenges.

Summer Program– Student teams spend a few intensive months learning about exponentially

advancing technologies and launch a new venture with the goal of positively impacting a billion people within a few years time…

SSME: Service Science, Management, and Engineering

IBM Research © 2006 IBM Corporation

0 25 50 100 125 150

Automobile

Innovation is AcceleratingMeasured by Speed of Market Adoptions

75

Years

50

100TelephoneElectricity

Radio

Television

VCR

PC

Cellular

Inte

rnet

% A

do

pti

on



Accelerating Advances in Technology

Source: Kurzweil 1999 – Moravec 1998

What’s Next



Accelerating advancesin life sciences

Faster sequencing

More applications

Deeper understanding



“Mitochondrial Eve”& Y-chromosomal Adam



The Genographic ProjectLandmark Study of the Human Journey

Five-year study to use the world’s largest collection of DNA samples to map how humankind populated the planet

Most ambitious genetic anthropology research initiative in history

Goal: Enable researchers to better understand the connections and differences that make up the human race

Genographic Project Website:

http://www.nationalgeographic.com/genographic



Adaptability


Corning: A Day Made of Glass (Our Homes)http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Cf7IL_eZ38


What about advanced manufacturing? Future factories downtown & open to the public & touristshttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nd5WGLWNllA


A major societal transformation is underway…“If we’re number one in technology, why do I have to call India for tech support?” – Jay Leno“Ideas are the new currency in a global knowledge economy.” – Ben Wildavsky, Senior Fellow, Kauffman Foundation“No country can lead in today’s world unless it leads in science.” – Speaker Nancy Pelosi“A history of modernization is in essence a history of scientific and technological progress… I firmly believe science is the ultimate revolution.” – Wen Jiabao, Premier, People’s Republic of China

Driven by “The Death of Distance” & “Algorithmic Revolution”- Cairncross, Economist (1997)

- Zysman, CACM (2006)

Manifesting in new forms of “Global Competition”– Friedman, The World is Flat (2005)

Characterized as a “Gathering Storm” by Americans– US National Academies (2005, 2007, 2011)


The Gathering Storm Report“The committee concluded that the United States appears to be on a course that will lead to declining, not growing, standard of living for our children and grandchildren.” – Gathering Storm“Gentlemen, we have run out of money. It is time to start thinking.” – Rutherford

“The Gathering Storm report is focused upon the ability of Americans to compete for employment in a job market that increasingly knows no geographic boundaries.”

“The United States takes deserved pride in the vitality of its economy, which forms the foundation of our high quality of life, our national security, and out hope that our children and grandchildren will inherit every greater opportunities.”

“The possession of quality jobs is the foundation of a high quality life for the nations citizenry.”

“While only four percent of the nations workforce is composed of scientists and engineers, this group disproportionately creates jobs for the other 96 percent.”

“Further, the pace of creation of new knowledge appears by almost all measures to be accelerating.”

“While this progress by other nations is to be both encouraged and welcomed, so too is the notion that Americans wish to continue to be among those people who do prosper.”

“The Gathering Storm committee contends that it is strongly in America’s interest for all nations to prosper. Aside from its humanistic merit this outcome should produce a safer world for everyone…”


The Gathering Storm Recommendations“It would be impossible not to recognize the great difficulty of carrying out Gathering Storm recommendations, such as doubling the research budget, in today’s fiscal environment… However… One seemingly relevant analogy is that a non-solution to make an over-weight aircraft flight-worthy is to remove an engine.” – Gathering Storm Revisited

“The fate of empires depends on how they educate their children.” – Aristotle“The best way to predict the future is to inspire & enable the next generation to build it better.” –IBM UPward

I. Improve inputs to universities– Fix “broken” K-12 system (invest in K-12)

III. Improve outputs from universities– Fix “broken” University system (invest in Higher Education)

II. Improve transitions from university to first job– Fix “broken” Employment system (increase R&D funding)

IV. Improve speed of regional innovation– Fix “broken” Governance system (align visa, tax, etc. regulations)


The Gathering Storm, Revisited for All Regions“There is nothing as practical as a good theory.” – Kurt Lewin“History is a race between education and catastrophe.” – H.G. Wells

Regions are entities that must learn to learn better– Regions = Nations, States, Cities, etc…

– Learning = Improving the global competitiveness performance of a region

Regional entities = “Holistic product-service systems”– that provision access to high-quality “whole service” to the people in them

– that also provision access to high quality products & services globally

– to contribute to a higher quality-of-life, both inside and outside their region

– service science studies product-service systems & customer-provider interactions (value-cocreation mechanisms, including the servitization of products and productization of service by the algorithmic revolution and other means)

Regional innovation = “Entities learning”– “Run-Transform-Innovate Learning Framework”

– “T-Shaped Professionals & the Systems-Disciplines Framework”

– University-Based Entrepreneurial Ecosystems (U-BEEs)


Societal Transformation: Changing Rules of Competition“The purpose of business is to create new customers.” – Peter Drucker

From Value-Creation Worldview: Compete Against Others - Zero-Sum Mindset– During different time intervals some regions begin to pull ahead, and some fall behind…

eventually the people in lagging regions immigrate to leading regions, some lagging regions “collapse” and are absorbed into other regions or remain dysfunctional… not only is human capital squandered in lagging and collapsed regions, but human suffering grows over time in these regions…. disenfranchised populations create a security threat for all….

To Value-CoCreation Worldview: Compete With/For Others - Non-Zero-Sum Mindset– The gains of innovators are “taxed” based on geography of their customers as well as home

location of provider (providers cannot succeed without customers)… as innovators seek to expand their markets into other regions successfully the “governments” of both provider and customer regions see tax revenues increase… accelerating both “transform” and “innovate” capabilities… accelerating entities learning and regional innovation.

– Innovator regions benefit the most, but the incentive is not to pull so far ahead that other regions lag too far behind or collapse; the incentive is to also create wealthier more capable customers over time, and regions compete in cycles of progress that move everyone forward…

Simple Examples of Value-CoCreation Model: – Toyota locating manufacturing plants in the US

– “The Huppenthal Method” Style of Learning Competition• Students compete, but “winning” is defined as everyone completing the work as fast as

possible, to beat their individual and collective previous best time• Leaders help those lagging behind catch-up, peer-mentoring and win-win NZS mindset• Demonstrated accelerated learning times and elevated student engagement levels


In Sum…“College is more valuable to the future economy than petroleum.” – Greg Easterbrook, Author“You can always depend on the Americans to do the right thing, after exhausting all other possibilities.” – Churchill

Gathering Storm reflects a major societal transformation underway– Driven by “The Death of Distance” and “Algorithmic Revolution”

– Manifesting in new, challenging forms of “Global Competition”

The nature of regional competition is being transformed (accelerating)…– From Value-Creation Worldview: “Compete Against” - Zero-Sum Mindset

– To Value-CoCreation Worldview: “Compete With/For” - Non-Zero-Sum Mindset

The transformation depends on increasing “trust” … a hard thing to do– However, increasing interconnectedness suggests there is no other viable alternative

– Cascade failures in globally interconnected economies are a real threat to stability

Increased trust can only be earned by performance against a shared innovation roadmap, or a shared vision for a better future for all…

– For example, climate change and sustainable environment

– For example, increased global security and financial stability

It is time to get our priorities straight and focus on what matters most…

© 2011 IBM CorporationIBM UP (University Programs) WW

Frameworks, Theories, and Models that connect…

The 4 I’s– Infrastructure

– Individuals

– Institutions

– Information Remember

– Questions

– Connections

– Book

– Speed! Societal Infrastructure(Technologies & Environment)

Individuals(Skills)

Institutions(Jobs)

Cultural Information(Quality-of-Life Measures)


NPR: Out of Economic Chaos, A New Order May Be Rising

HAWLEY: The grand total of U.S. automotive fatalities from 1975 to the present, about one and a half million people. Now, the grand total of U.S. fatalities from 1775 to the present in every military conflict we've had is 1.3 million. So in other words, in the last roughly 35 years we've killed more people with cars than we have in more than 300 years of warfare.

I think if you step back and look at cars from a sort of 35,000 foot level, you've got to wonder why we're doing this to ourselves. And there's a tremendous amount of industry and employment built up around it. But suppose it all changed.

One way it could change is if human weren't allowed to drive cars anymore. Or let me put it differently. If cars were much more appealing because they drove themselves and did it safely.

And this isn't just Jetson stuff. There's a brilliant computer scientist, artificial intelligence researcher at Stanford, named Sebastian Thrun. He's invented a car that drives itself. You can hop in the car and you never touch the wheel or the pedals. It navigates through all the traffic snarls. It won't run over little old ladies in Pasadena. It won't even run over a squirrel.

If you could eliminate the seven million accidents per year, the 2.9 million injuries, the 40,000 fatalities, that would be enormous boon. But if you think about what would happen in the short term. Let's suppose in the next five or ten years this idea comes to fruition.

Think about all the disruption that could cause. You might not have to own a car. Well, that might be good. You'd have a garage that you could use to start up a company instead of storing a couple of rusting hulks of metal in it. You'd never have to call Tom and Ray Magliozzi again, because you wouldn't have to fix your car.

There wouldn't be a parking problem, because you'd push a little button on your iPhone, a smart car would zip up, pick you up, drop you off where you need to go. That means no more valets, no more taxi drivers, no more meter maids, no more traffic cops. You'd never hear a car horn, because why would a robot car honk at another robot car. Makes no sense.

But that's an example of the sort of change that in the short term can cause immense of amounts of anxiety and upheaval.

http://www.npr.org/2011/09/24/140766796/out-of-economic-chaos-a-new-order-may-be-rising


California Human Development Report 2011 http://ww

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