Techniques for Forecasting

Human Resources

BHOMA RAM RAR MBA

There are several techniques use for forecasting

1. Managerial Judgment 2. Trend Analysis3. Ratio Analysis4. Scatter Plot5. Computerized Forecast6. Work Study Technique7. Delphi technique8. Regression Analysis9. Econometric Models cont…..

10. Nominal Group Technique11. H R Budget and Planning Analysis12. Scenario Forecasting13. Workforce Analysis14. Workload Analysis15. Job Analysis

Managerial Judgment

This techniques is very simple. In this, manager sit together, discuss and arrive at a figure which would be the future demand for labor. The technique may involve a ‘bottom-to-top’ or ‘top-to-bottom’ approach.

Trend Analysis

Method which forecast employments requirements on the basis of some organizational index and is one of the most commonly used approaches for projecting HR demand. 1. Business Factor Annual Volume of Sales. (N.U)

2. Total Number of Employees.3. Compare the Productivity Ratio.4. Calculate Human Resources demand. 5. Forecasted Human Resource Requirements.

Ratio Analysis

Another approach , Ratio analysis , means making forecasts based on the ratio between.

1. Some causal factor (like sales volume)

2. The number of employees required

Scatter Plot

A graphical method used to help identify the relationship between two variables. A scatter plot is another option. HR planner can use scatter plots to determine whether two factors – measure of business activity and staffing levels are related.

Computerized Forecast

The determination of future staff needs by projecting a firm’s sales, volume of production, and personnel required to maintain this required volume of output, using computers and software packages. Employers also used computerized system to personnel requirements .

Work Study Technique

Work study technique is based on the volume operation and work efficiency of personnel. Volume of operation is derived from the organizational plan documents and increase/decrease in operation can be measured.

Planned outputStandard output per hour x standard hours per person

Delphi Technique

This technique calls for a facilitator to solicit and collate written, expert opinion on labor forecast. After answer are received, a summary of the information is developed and distributed to the expert, who are than requested to submit revised forecast. Expert never meet face-to-face, but rather communicate through the facilitator.

Regression Analysis

Regression analysis identifies the movement of two or more inter-related series. It is used to measure the changes in a variable as a result of changes in other variables. Regression analysis determines the relationship between Y variables such as the number of employees and X variables such as service delivery by actually measuring the relationship that existed in the past. Use of the method begins with a series of observation each costing of a value for the Y variable plus a value for each X variable.

Econometric Models

Econometric models for estimation of manpower requirement differ from the statistical methods. Past statistical data are analyzed in the hope that it will prove possible to describe precisely the relationships between a number of variables in mathematical and statistical terms.

Nominal Group Technique

The nominal group technique is a decision making method for use among groups of many sizes, who want to make their decision quickly, as by a vote, but want everyone’s opinions taken into traditional voting.

I. Introduction and ExplanationII. Silent Generation of Ideas III. Sharing IdeasIV. Group DiscussionV. Voting and Ranking

H R Budget and Planning Analysis

There are several other ways by which planners can estimate the future demand for human resources. One approach is through budget and planning analysis. When new ventures complicate employment planning. Planners can use new-venture analysis.

Scenario Forecasting

Scenario techniques is used to explore the likelihood of possible future developments and changes and to identify the interaction of uncertain future trends and events.

Preparation of Background Selection of Critical Indicators Establishing Past Behavior of IndicatorsVerification of Potential Future Events Forecasting the indicatorsWriting of scenarios

Workforce Analysis

It means, to determine the rate of influx and out flow of employee. It is through this analysis one can calculate the labor turnover rate, absenteeism rate etc.

Workload Analysis

It is a method that uses information about the actual content of work based on a job analysis of the work. Workload analysis involves use of ratios to determine HR requirement. Both the number of employees and the kind of employees required to achieve organizational goals are identified.

Job Analysis

Job analysis helps in finding out the abilities or skills required to do the jobs efficiently. A detailed study of jobs is usually made to identify the qualification and experience required for them.