The changing higher education landscape by Paul Woodgates, PA Consulting - University Alliance Summit 2015

© PA Knowledge Limited 20151

THE CHANGING HIGHER EDUCATION LANDSCAPE

University Alliance Annual Summit

Paul WoodgatesPA Consulting Group

June 2015


LANDSCAPE #1:

FORECASTS OF DOOM


“Universities won’t survive. 30 years from now, university campuses will be relics.”

Peter Drucker, 1996

“There’s a tsunami coming for higher education…”

President of Stanford, 2012

“In 50 years there will be only 10 higher education institutions in the world”

Sebastian Thrun, Udacity, 2013


“…an avalanche of change [could] sweep away the HE system…”

Sir Michael Barber /IPPR, 2014

“Some universities are going to close…”

John Cridland, CBI, 2014

“Substantial numbers of institutional failures are highly or quite likely”

40%+ of VCs responding to PA Annual Surveys, 2010-14


LANDSCAPE #2:

NEVER HAD IT SO GOOD



Applications up



Income up



Research Up



Satisfaction Up



Rankings Up


LANDSCAPE #3:

WINNERS AND LOSERS


UA Members

Su

rplu

s a

s a

% o

f Tu

rno

ve

r 2

01

3/1

4(A

vera

ge

for

En

glis

h &

Wel

sh H

EIs

= 3

.9%

)

% Change in HE Students 2011/12 - 2013/14(Average for English & Welsh HEIs = -6.6%)

-40% -35% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

Universities in England and Wales

Comparison of the change in student numbers 11/12-13/14 with surplus as a % of turnover 13/14 for English and Welsh HEIs

Mean


LANDSCAPE #4:

OLIGARCHS & ZOMBIES


Str

ateg

ic F

ocu

s

Co

nso

lidat

eE

xte

nd

Ex

plo

re

Balance ofStrengths/Weaknesses

MixedPositive Vulnerable

OLIGARCHS

ZOMBIES


LANDSCAPE #5:

INNOVATORS & COASTERS


Str

ateg

ic F

ocu

s

Co

nso

lidat

eE

xte

nd

Ex

plo

re

Balance ofStrengths/Weaknesses

MixedPositive Vulnerable

OLIGARCHS

ZOMBIES

INNOVATORS

COASTERS


How innovative are we?

% of vice-chancellors rating their institution against seven themes of HE innovation

Unbundling of Service Provision

Student Data Analytics

Technology-Enhanced Learning

Mobility between Providers

Integration with Practice

Flexible Study Modes

Curriculum Reforms

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Sector leading Making progress Limited progress Not a priority


But the good news is…

…innovation is a choice


paconsulting.com/education

Paul Woodgates, Head of Services to the Education [email protected] +44 207 881 3597

mailto:[email protected]