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This presentation was given by Mark Coker to the Published Authors Network (PAN) group at the Romance Writers of America (RWA) 2012 annual conference in Anaheim. It explores the major trends facing authors and book publishers.
Citation preview
THE FUTURE OF PUBLISHING
RWA Published Authors Network (PAN) keynoteJuly 25, 2012
Mark Coker Founder, Smashwords
Twitter: @markcoker
Note to viewer: This presentation was given on July 25, 2012 at RWA. I’ve made minor annotations to capture some of the information that was
conveyed verbally.
Please share this presentation with fellow writers. Permission granted to copy and share this presentation with anyone, provided it remains in its
unaltered state, and the recipient is not charged for the information.
I bring you a message
“a message of hope for those who choose to hear it, and
warning to those who do not”
~ Lyrics from Rosetta Stoned by Tool
My Backstory
My wife (fmr reporter for Soap Opera Weekly magazine) and I wrote a novel about daytime television soap
operas
We were repped by one of the top NY literary agencies
Publishers Said “No”
• Despite great efforts of our agent, every major publisher said NO (TWICE!)
I imagined hundreds of thousands of other writers like us
Silenced
The Problem with Big Publishing
• Books judged on perceived commercial merit
• Difficult to identify potential bestsellers
• Readers decide this!!
• Reject many great authors
• Publishers deciding what readers can read
• Readers shut out
• Slow production cycles
• Books too expensive
• Cannot take a risk on every book
My Answer: Smashwords
• Ebooks + Open Publishing
• Free ebook publishing tools
• Distribution to major ebook stores
• Promote publishing best-practices
• Power to the author
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Indie ebooks published at Smashwords
1406,000
28,800
92,000
141,000 +
Smashwords and Romance
• Romance = 30% of our sales across our distribution network (Apple, B&N, Sony, Kobo, etc.)
• 18% erotica
• Average romance title sells 2X the average title at Smashwords store
• Romance authors have led the ebook revolution, and will continue to lead
Smashwords, Apple and Romance
• Apple iBookstore July 26, 2012
• 4 of top 10 Apple Romance bestsellers, and 10 of the
top 20 are from Smashwords
• 5 of top 20 bestselling titles store-wide are from Smashwords, and ALL ARE ROMANCE!
• 10 of top 40 store-wide bestsellers are from Smashwords, ALL ARE ROMANCE!
Enough about Smashwords.
Let’s talk about you, and the future of publishing
Let’s bust a dangerous myth
What myth should we bust?
The Myth of Big Publishing
You were taught to bow subservient before the altar of Big Publishing
… taught you weren’t an author until a publisher blessed you as such
… and until you were blessed, you were a failure
Publishers were the bouncers at the pearly gates
• You were told a publishing contract would confer…
• blessing
• acceptance
• validation
• entry into the afterlife as a “published author”
Publishers controlled Heaven
• Promised Perks of the Afterlife
• editing
• printing press
• distribution
• marketing
• royalties
• fame and respect
• readers
• “published author” inscribedon your tombstone
… and if you dared indulge in the carnal pleasures of self-publishing...
You were told to keep toiling and waiting.
And waiting….
… you’d get a deal when you sacrificed enough of your soul like these other great
writers…
Justin Bieber got a book deal
Snooki got a book deal
Kourtney, Kim and Khloe got a book deal
Stop
Don’t sell your soul
Q:
WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF WRITERS LOST FAITH IN THE RELIGION OF BIG PUBLISHING?
“GOD IS DEAD” Friedrich Nietzsche
(Message: Institutions live and die based on the trust, faith and confidence placed in them
by the believers. Those of us who stand between the author and reader must add
value, otherwise we cease to exist.)
IS BIG PUBLISHING DEAD?
No, though it has lost its way
You will decide the fate of Big Publishing
You can help it find its way, if you choose that path
WE LIVE IN UNCERTAIN TIMES
BOOK PUBLISHING IS CAUGHT IN THE TURBULENT CROSS CURRENTS OF
MULTIPLE CONVERGING FORCES
TECHNOLOGY IS COLLIDING WITH BIG PUBLISHING
(Notes: Technology is a catalyst for rapid evolution. Successful technology is that which satisfies human desires for greater empowerment, and for products
and services that are faster, cheaper, more accessible and more useful. Technology can be disruptive by
rendering old business models and practices obsolete. )
Here comes technology
Let’s examine the changes
FIVE TRENDS TO ROCK THE WORLD OF PUBLISHING
(notes: to prepare for the future, it’s more important you understand where you’re heading,
rather than when you’ll get there. Here, I will share macro representations of where your world
is headed
TREND ONE
Bookselling moving to the Web
Percentage of book purchases made online vs B&M, Print and E-
Brick &Mortar
Web
Today?
Bookselling moves to the Web
• The decline of brick and mortar
• Consumer drivers:• Price
• Convenience
• Selection
• Self-published books displayed side by side with traditional books
• Big publishers no longer control distribution
TREND TWO:
Reading Moving to Screens
Screens are the new paper
Ebooks to overtake print
Print books
Ebooks
Today?
Ebooks as a percentage of US wholesale trade market
Source: Association of American Publishers, publishers.org. 2012 Smashwords estimate
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Why ebooks are hot
• Screens offer better reading experience than paper
•Changeable font size A A A A
• Portable and compact
• Screens will get better/faster/cheaper
• Amazon, Apple, B&N, etc
• Ebooks offer better consumption experience
• Lower cost than print
• Convenient sampling and purchasing
• Huge selection
TREND THREE
The Rise of Ebook Self-Publishing (a.k.a indie ebook publishing)
Number of books published indie vs. traditional
Indie books
Today?
New trad. books
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Indie ebooks published at Smashwords
1406,000
28,800
92,000 +
141,000 +(July 2012)
New tools open book publishing and distribution to all
• Tools such as Smashwords empower you to become your own publisher
• Free printing press in the cloud
• Distribution to major online ebookstores, libraries
Indies are Now Out-Publishing Big Publishers
• Indies scaling all the bestseller lists
• (Aug 1, 2012 update: Four Smashwords authors in August 5 NY Times Bestseller list.)
• Indie author advantages
• faster time to market
• greater creative control
• lower prices to consumers
• lower expenses
• better distribution to global market
• never go out of print
• earn more per book
Indie Ebook Authors Earn Higher Percentage of List Price
• Indies earn more at lower prices
• Indies earn more selling a $.99 ebook ($.60-$.70) than a traditional $8.00 MMP ($.40)
• At $2.99, indies earn $1.80. Trad. author would have to sell at $10.25
• Lower price = reach more readers = more sales at higher profits per sale
60-80% 5-12-17%
Indie Traditional
TREND FOUR
Content Explosion Leads to Downward Pressure on Prices
Glut leads to price competition
March 2012October 2010
$4.25
$3.15
Average price of Smashwords ebooks
TREND FIVE
Publishers Losing Primacy
Big Publishers Have Lost Their Monopoly
• Printing press is free to all
• Distribution free to all
• Knowledge to publish, distribute and market high-quality, professional books is free to all
• Big Publishers overprice
• Professional authors asking:
• “What can a publisher do for me that I can’t do for myself?”
• “Will a publisher actually limit my ability to reach readers?”
Stigmas to Flip?
Aspire Traditional
Aspire Indie
Today?
Aspire Indie
Aspire Traditional
4 yrs ago Future?
What is Success?
The Success Flywheel
How Price and Royalty Impact Success
The Interplay Between Unit Volume and Dollar Volume
• Per research released at RT Booklovers, lower prices sell more units, and $2.99-$5.99 earns authors more than $6.99+
• Implications
• Lower priced books sell more units, build author brand and author platform faster
• If given option to earn equal or more income selling $2.99 ebook vs. $6.99+ ebook, $2.99 author wins the long term game because they’re building platform and author brand faster than traditionally published authors. See recent SW blog post, How Traditional Publishers Can Harm Author’s Career.
• Indie ebook authors may have long term advantage over trad. authors
How Price Impacts Units Sold
A book priced at $2.99 sells approximately 6.2 times as many units as a book priced over $10.00, and about 4 times more than $9.99
What Price Yields Highest Earnings?
Author earnings
Traditional 17.5% list
$2.27
Indie would earn 60%+ list
$7.80
$.60
$2.40
Interplay of price, volume, royalty: Indies building platform, earning more
per unit sold
How Big Publishers can Regain the Faith
• Do for authors what authors cannot or will not do for themselves
• Change the publishing mindset
• Serve authors first
• Empower editors (the heart and soul of great publishers!)
• Develop long tail strategies
• Forget about selling, focus on publishing
• Increase author royalties
• Abandon DRM
The Plan Forward for Romance Authors
The 5 Trends Create a Future that will…
Benefit Indie Authors
Disadvantage Some Traditional Authors
You are the future of publishing
Your words have value
You are your own gatekeeper
YOU are in control now
YOU decide when your manuscript graduates to PUBLISHED BOOK
Honor your readers
Give readers great books that are as good or better than those released by
Big Publishers
(and do it faster with lower prices)
The task before you is not easy, yet…
The Opportunity to Reach Readers Has Never Been Greater
Think Globally
The market for your books outside the US will soon dwarf the US market
Apple operates iBookstores in 32 countries. We distribute to Apple. In May 2012, ~45% of Smashwords Apple iBookstore Sales were
Outside the US
You Have the Tools to Reach a Worldwide Market Today
The Tools are FREE
Final Thoughts
• Change brings opportunity
• Writers are in charge now
• Publishing is easy, professional publishing takes work
• Readers, not publishers, control your destiny
• Indie vs. Traditional is not an either/or decision. Some authors straddle both.
• You are the future of publishing!
Free Ebook Publishing Resources
• NEW! Secrets to Ebook Publishing Success (best practices of successful authors)
• Smashwords Book Marketing Guide (how to market any book)
• Smashwords Style Guide (how to format an ebook)
How to Publish and Distribute Your Book with Smashwords
Useful Links
How to Publish and Distribute an Ebook with Smashwords
Smashwords FAQ
(This slide not included in RWA presentation)
Thank you for considering the future!
Q&AConnect with Mark Coker and Smashwords:
Web: www.smashwords.com
Blog: blog.smashwords.com
LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/markcoker
Facebook: facebook.com/markcoker
HuffPo: huffingtonpost.com/mark-coker
Twitter: @markcoker