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What are the limits of growth on the Earth? Can we increase our prosperity while saving out planet? Ramez Naam argues that knowledge is our ultimate resource, innovation our ultimate creator of prosperity. With examples across agriculture, energy, water, and more, Naam argues that we have tremendous headroom to grow prosperity, IF we make the right choices in aligning that growth with the best interests of our world as a whole.
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The Infinite ResourceGrowing Prosperity on a Finite Planet
Ramez Naam @ramez
It was the best of times, It was the worst of times
It was the age of wisdom, It was the age of foolishness,
It was the spring of hope, It was the winter of despair,
We had everything before us, We had nothing before us.
Unprecedented Prosperity
Unprecedented Opportunity
Unprecedented Risk
Possible to Prosper Like Never Before
With LESS Negative Impact
Possible != Assured
Important Changes Needed
BEST OF TIMES
Population
LONGER LIVES
LESS POVERTY
MORE FOOD PER PERSON
FEWER MALNOURISHED
More Access to Electricity
RISING EDUCATION
DROPPING ILLITERACY
HIGHER LITERACY
HIGHER HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX
MORE DEMOCRACY
GREATER EQUALITY
GREATER EQUALITY
WORST OF TIMES
Welcome to the Anthropocene
ACIDIFICATION HITS THE BOTTOM OF THE FOOD CHAIN
HIGH ACIDIFICATION WOULD WIPE OUT CORALS
Fish Stocks Crashed or Overexploited
Depleted Fisheries
Fish Tons Per Unit Effort
Species Loss
Peak Oil: Projections
PROSPERITY BUILT ON OVERCONSUMPTION
SOME SAY: GROWTH MUST STOP
HALTING GROWTH HAS A COST
RAISING GLOBAL HEALTH REQUIRES GROWING ENERGY AND ECONOMIES
TODAY
• GLOBAL TRADE $ ARE 10x GLOBAL MILITARY $
• US TRADE $ ARE 5x US MILITARY $
• CHINA, US, EU, INDIA, CAN ALL GROW SIMULTANEOUSLY
IN A ZERO SUM WORLD
• ONE NATION’S GAIN IS ANOTHER’S LOSS
• WAR BECOMES MORE PROFITABLE THAN TRADE
• NATIONS WILL FIGHT OVER SCRAPS
• NOT WHAT WE WANT
FORTUNATELY…
NOT NEW PREDICTIONS
THE POPULATION BOMB
“The war to feed humanity is over… Billions will die”
MASSIVE FAMINES PREDICTED FOR 1970s
THE LIMITS TO GROWTH (1972)
MASSIVE ECONOMIC AND POPULATION COLLAPSE PREDICTED FOR 1992
THOMAS MALTHUS
PREDICTED MASSIVE FAMINE AND DIE-OFF FOR THE 1800s
ALL THESE PREDICTIONS WERE WRONG
MISSING INGREDIENT
INNOVATION
GROWTH IN USEFUL KNOWLEDGE
KNOWLEDGE: ULTIMATE RESOURCE
1. INFINITELY RE-USABLE2. GROWS RATHER THAN BEING DEPLETED3. NON-RIVAL4. REDUCES NEED FOR OR MULTIPLIES VALUE OF:– Energy, Materials, Land, Labor, Time– All Physical Resource
OUTPUT = INPUTS x KNOWLEDGE MULTIPLIER
EXAMPLE : FOOD PRODUCTION
• FIRST & MOST IMPORTANT ENERGY TECHNOLOGY
• HISTORY HAS SHOWN:– More Food Per Unit Land (via Innovation)– Reduced Ecological Footprint Per Person
EATING OIL?
NO: TREND IS 12,000 YEARS OLD
SINCE LONG BEFORE FERTILIZER
Earliest Scratch Farming1 ,000,000
m^2 / person
Irrigated Farming: 26,000 m^2
Roman Empire: 13,000 m^2Late Middle Ages: 8,500 m^2US Farming in 1900: 6,000 m^2 US Farming in 1960: 2,800 m^2US Farming in 2000: 1,200 m^2
Hunter Gatherer Societies~10,000,000 m^2 / person
LAND REQUIRED TO FEED A HUMAN HAS SHRUNK BY 10,000x
LABOR PRICE OF LIGHTWORK HOURS PER 1,000 LUMEN HOURS
LIGHT / UNIT ENERGY: UP 500x IN 150 YEARS
WE USE LESS OIL PER PERSON THAN 1970
LESS WATER PER CAPITA THAN 1970
WE EMIT LESS CO2 / CAPITA THAN 1980
POPULATION WILL PLATEU & DECLINE
CO2 PER $ OF GDP IS SHRINKINGCHINA IS CATCHING UP USING WESTERN TECHNOLOGY
KNOWLEDGE CAN AND DOES REPLACE PHYSICAL RESOURCES
WHAT ARE THE LIMITS?
14 SECONDS OF INSOLATION
= 1 DAY OF HUMANITY’S ENERGY USE
88 MINUTES OF INSOLATION
= 1 YEAR OF HUMANITY’S ENERGY USE
0.3% of Earth’s Land Area Could Power Humanity in 2030 at 14% efficiency.
1/100th the Area Used for Agriculture Today
SOLAR MOORE’S LAW: -7% $$/WATT EACH YEAR
Algae Based Biofuels
DARPA: $5 / GALLON BIO-KEROSINE IN 2013
Fresh Water
1E+15
1E+18
1E+21Energy in Watt Hours
FARM PRODUCTIVITY : LARGE VARIANCE
US YIELDS REPRESENT 2X UPSIDEUS-STYLE FARMING COULD DOUBLE TOTAL WORLD FOOD
MOVE RICE & OTHER C3 CROPS C4 PHOTOSYNTHESIS ~30% YIELD INCREASES
13%
1200 m^2 / person on earth with best farming today
31 m^2 / person at 13% efficiency(with an American diet)
6 m^2 / person at 13% efficiency(with a vegetarian diet)
PHOTOSYNTHETIC LIMIT OF FOOD IS VAST
RETURNING LAND TO NATURE
• Increased Yields = Less Land Per Person
• Population Will Peak at < 10 Billion
• Opportunity: Return Millions of km^2 to Forest
Fish Farming vs. Fish Hunting
INCREDIBLE GROWTH IS POSSIBLE
• Natural Resources are Huge:– Energy– Water– Food Limits– Materials
• Innovation Can Tap Into Them with Less and Less Impact on the World
POSSIBLE != CERTAIN
CHALLENGE: A BUG IN OUR SOFTWARE
MARKET ECONOMICS• The “Software” That Runs Our Society
• Incredibly Successful
• Has Outcompeted All Other Systems
• Aligns Individual Incentives with Overall Desires
• Rewards Innovation
• A Darwinian Ecosystem For New Ideas
• But One Key Bug…
EXTERNALITIES
EXTERNALITY
THINGS WE CARE ABOUT
THINGS THE MARKET CAN MANAGE
(THINGS WITH PRICES, OWNERS, BUYERS, SELLERS)
THINGS THE MARKET CAN MANAGE(A WIDER VARIETY
THAN TODAY)
EXTERNALITY
THINGS WE CARE ABOUT
THINGS THE MARKET CAN MANAGE
(THINGS WITH PRICES, OWNERS, BUYERS, SELLERS)
$$$
A CARBON TAXCreates Incentives for:1. Conservation & Efficiency
2. Alternative Energy Use and R&D
3. Sequestration of Carbon from Atmosphere
WHAT WOULD IT COST?ENOUGH TO HIT A TIPPING POINT1. Cheaper to Pull Carbon From the Air than the
Ground
2. Cheaper to Build Solar than Coal Immediately
3. Cheap Enough We Could Remedy Externalities
WHAT WOULD IT COST?$50 - $100 / Ton of CO2e=$.50 - $1.00 / gallon of gasoline
$.05 - $.10 / kilowatt hour of coal electricity
Phased in Over 10 Years
WE’VE FIXED GLOBAL COMMONS BEFORE
WE’VE FIXED GLOBAL COMMONS BEFORE
REQUIRES COOPERATION & DISCIPLINE
WE CAN DO IT AGAIN
WE MUST FIX OUR SYSTEM
WE MUST END EXTERNALITIES
IF WE FAIL TO ACT
MAKE THE RIGHT CHOICES
GROWTH CAN CONTINUE
BEYOND OUR WILDEST DREAMS
OUR GREATEST RESOURCE
Ramez Naam @ramez
