Upload
rene-rohrbeck
View
5.097
Download
2
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Citation preview
The Technology Radar An Instrument of Technology Intelligence and Innovation Strategy
René Rohrbeck, Jörg Heuer, Heinrich Arnold
IEEE-ICMIT Conference, Singapore
21st – 23rd June 2006
Rohrbeck_Heuer_Arnold_(2006)_Technology-Radar.ppt 1
Abstract.Motivation, approach and conclusions.
Motivation
The growing competition in consumer markets is forcing industry to explore new ways to foster product and service innovations
The Deutsche Telekom Laboratories have introduced a tool to foster its technology intelligence capabilities: The Technology Radar
This paper is used to share best practices and seeks to advance research in the field of technology intelligence (TI)
Approach
The presentation of the tool consists of goals, method, some exemplary findings and its role in technology management
The paper closes with lessons learned, key success factors and recommendations for the introduction of an TI system
Conclusions
Value created by the Technology Radar consists of …
…top management attention
…stimulation of innovation
…direct introduction of external views and impulses
…fostering of the absorptive capacity
Rohrbeck_Heuer_Arnold_(2006)_Technology-Radar.ppt 2
I. Introduction.Definitions of technology intelligence.
Technology Intelligence
Provision of relevant information on technology and the evaluation of their impact on the corporation. This information
is then on the one hand used for decision making in R&D and in corporate strategy; on the other hand it is used to increase the awareness of the operating units for upcoming opportunities
and risks as well as prepare the receptiveness of the organization for R&D results. The process consists of gathering, assessing and communicating technological opportunities and
threats.
Rohrbeck_Heuer_Arnold_(2006)_Technology-Radar.ppt 3
II. Goals.Of the Technology Radar.
Goals of the Technology
Radar
Early identification of technologies, technological trends and technological shocks
Raising the attention for the threats and opportunities of technological development
Stimulation of innovation
Rohrbeck_Heuer_Arnold_(2006)_Technology-Radar.ppt 4
III. Method.Process Overview.
Selection Assessment DisseminationIdentification
?
? ?
?
?
?
?
?
??
? ?
?
?
?
? ?
?
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
Innovation
Strategy
CTOs and CMOs
of SBUs
R&D and
Product Managers
Rohrbeck_Heuer_Arnold_(2006)_Technology-Radar.ppt 5
II. Method.Assessment.
Technology Radar
Technological realization complexity
Market im
pact
high low
lowh
igh
1
2
3
DTAG Relevance
High
Medium
Low
Assessment
Potential market size
Disruptive potential
Cost savings
Complexity
Implementation risk
Cost
Rohrbeck_Heuer_Arnold_(2006)_Technology-Radar.ppt 6
Text Bold = new featured Technology Profile
Market
Ready
Core
Network
Fixe
d &
Mob
ile
Dev
ices
Acce
ssN
etw
ork
Market
Presence
Product
Concept
Applied
Research
Basic
Research
NetworkServices
Cross-
Functional
End-User
Services
SIP ConnectSIP Connect
Vis. Search Interface
Carrier-Independent LBS
AITF Protocol
EPC
VoWiMAX
M5
SPIT
RoF
MIH
KeyStroke Recog.
IPTV
Desktop-2-GoAspect-oriented
SW Devel.
Adapt. Opt. Networks
Virtual Directories
Ad hoc & MeshNetworks
UMA
SuperdistributionPON
µTCP/IP
$100 Laptop
Open Source RouterOpen Source Router
XML RoutersXML Routers SOASOA
UIPUIPQuantum
CryptographyQuantum
Cryptography
Galileo
Trusted ComputingTrusted Computing
DRMDRM
802.11s802.11s
Stratellites
IMS
Anti Spam Concepts
RSS 2.0
Ajax
Atom 1.0
CR Systems
Embarq
Equip. Ident. Equip. Ident.
VoWLAN
802.16WiMAX, Wibro
Interactive Explor. Table
Interactive Explor. Table
Media RSS
Participatory Media
Quadruple Play
Self Config.Mobile Dev.Self Config.Mobile Dev.
802.22 WRAN
DLNA RFID Blocker
VA Search
Nano Satellites
Network Coding
GENIGENI
Web API’s
DReaM
Place Shifting
DSRC
RFID-DRM
IGRSITop Home
Storage Bricks
DTN
Web 2.0
RetinalDisplay
MolecularComputing
High Precision. Loc.
III. Method.Dissemination main document.
Dissemination
Technology Radar Screen
$100 Laptop
Innovation: Telecom operators could subsidize laptops, making them virtually free, and tying them to service subscriptions (e.g. broadband, cellular, music or video on demand).
Recent technological advances and efforts to eliminate the existing overhead in today‟s software designs will bring laptops to price points below $100/unit incl. $10 or more contingency/profit. A $ 100 Laptop will have a 500 MHz CPU with Linux and 1 GB HD, 1 mega-pixel full-color screen with 12‟‟ diagonal and will be WiFi and cell phone-enabled.
Key Message
Profile
DTAG Relevance
High
Medium
Low
Rohrbeck_Heuer_Arnold_(2006)_Technology-Radar.ppt 7
III. Method.Dissemination add-ons.
Dissemination
The Technology Profiles are presented and discussed among the external researchers and experts. Then the researchers reflect on the profiles and cluster these to larger underlying trends which are presented in a workshop.
These trends are then consolidated into key trends and further defined and shaped with experts.
Trend Workshops
In depth coverage of one specific topic from scouting to feature paper to workshop.
Based on selected technology profiles an expert workshop is set up in order to discuss recent trends and innovative developments related to the feature paper.
The outcome of the workshop are scenarios that reflect the experts„ view in the defined topic.
Feature Paper
Derived from selected business, technology, and R&D trends detailed opinion papers are created.
Opinion papers are created by DTAG experts and reflect the view of DTAG on a certain topic.
Opinion Papers
Based on the Silicon Valley Innovation Panel, where T-Labs representatives met with industry leaders, university professors, venture capitalists, start up companies and Silicon Valley visionaries, virtualization has been identified as an overarching trend and is featured in the Innovation Panel Report.
Innovation Panel
Technology Profiles
Innovation Idea Innovation Idea
Innovation Idea
Selection of 8 Key Trends
Clustering of Trends
“Stanford Method“Workshop
Innovation Idea Innovation Idea
Innovation Idea
Innovation Idea Innovation Idea
Innovation Idea
Technology Profiles
Innovation Idea Innovation Idea
Innovation Idea
Selection of 8 Key Trends
Clustering of Trends
“Stanford Method“Workshop
Innovation Idea Innovation Idea
Innovation Idea
Innovation Idea Innovation Idea
Innovation Idea
Definition of Focus Topic
Selected Profiles
Feature Paper Workshop
Focus Topic
Definition of Focus Topic
Selected Profiles
Feature Paper Workshop
Focus Topic
Service Infrastructure
“source”
Utilization Infrastructure
“sink”Virtualization
DeliveryInfrastructure
“conduit”
Semantic Infrastructure
“meaning”
Service Infrastructure
“source”
Utilization Infrastructure
“sink”Virtualization
DeliveryInfrastructure
“conduit”
Semantic Infrastructure
“meaning”
Rohrbeck_Heuer_Arnold_(2006)_Technology-Radar.ppt 8
IV. Technological Findings.Feature paper, opinion paper, trend workshop.
Dissemination
“Private Content Goes Public”
Trend Workshops
“Virtualization”
Feature Paper
“Intelligent User Interfaces will become for telcos, what product design is for the manufacturing industry.”
Today different forms of communication are defined more often by the interface that is used for establishing the communication than by the underlying transport technology. For instance, E-Mail and Instant Messaging both use the Internet for message transport but mainly vary in user interface. In future NGN dominated worlds, the major remaining form of differentiation between communication services will be the user interface. What design is for manufactured products, intelligent user interfaces will become for telco services.
“Intelligent User Interface”
Opinion Papers
“You should virtualize away technology, so that you can really think about what customers wantrather than what technology can do.”
As a framework for the analysis, the impact of technology has been investigated, as well as market and social reaction to virtualization across the three major ICT infrastructure areas – (1) delivery – comprising networks and technical platforms, (2) service – encompassing specific configurations, processes and underlying IT, and (3) utilization – being made up of terminal devices and user interfaces. These three „traditional‟ components of value creation at telcos were complemented with a fourth area – semantics – an emerging set of technologies and trends.
Technology Profiles
Innovation Idea Innovation Idea
Innovation Idea
Selection of 8 Key Trends
Clustering of Trends
“Stanford Method“Workshop
Innovation Idea Innovation Idea
Innovation Idea
Innovation Idea Innovation Idea
Innovation Idea
Technology Profiles
Innovation Idea Innovation Idea
Innovation Idea
Selection of 8 Key Trends
Clustering of Trends
“Stanford Method“Workshop
Innovation Idea Innovation Idea
Innovation Idea
Innovation Idea Innovation Idea
Innovation Idea
Service Infrastructure
“source”
Utilization Infrastructure
“sink”Virtualization
DeliveryInfrastructure
“conduit”
Semantic Infrastructure
“meaning”
Service Infrastructure
“source”
Utilization Infrastructure
“sink”Virtualization
DeliveryInfrastructure
“conduit”
Semantic Infrastructure
“meaning”
“As the communication becomes a kind of content transfer, the consumer becomes a prosumer.”
Communities and social software are on the rise. People always liked to show what they are doing. Now, thanks to current technological development, they can do it on a global level nearly for free. Sharing personal content in the web is becoming common place: your private photo album, your favourite playlist, your personal views, all in the internet. More and more people share their experiences and opinions using “long tail content” concepts like blogs and become content producers.
Rohrbeck_Heuer_Arnold_(2006)_Technology-Radar.ppt 9
V. Value Created……by the Technology Radar.
Value created
Top management attention by…
…creating a document that “sits on the desks of the CTOs and CMOs
Stimulation of innovation by…
…bringing together people and projects throughout the DTAG
…raising the attention for specific issues
Direct Introduction of external views and impulses by
…bringing external information directly to top management
Fostering the absorptive capacity by
…enabling the management of large amount of topics at the same time
Rohrbeck_Heuer_Arnold_(2006)_Technology-Radar.ppt 10
VI. Lessons learned.By the Technology Radar introductions.
Best practices
Radar Screen is a powerful format for the top aggregation level
Choose scouts with the ability to see beyond a product or technology to its hidden opportunities
Choose scout with a large relevant, social network
Portfolio approach for the technology rating is good method for its intuitive usage
Define and describe clearly the criteria used for technology rating
Further development
steps
Online dissemination with interaction functionalities
Enabling the long reach from the reader to the source of information
Rohrbeck_Heuer_Arnold_(2006)_Technology-Radar.ppt 11
References (1/4)
Aligica, P. D. (2005) Scenarios and the growth of knowledge: Notes on the epistemic element in scenario building. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 72, 815–824.
Arnold, H. M. (2003) Technology Shocks-origins, Management Responses and Firm Performance. Heidelberg and New York: Physica Verlag Springer-Verlag GmbH & Co.KG.
Ashton, W. B. (1997) Tech intelligence survey finds few are world-class. Research Technology Management, 40, 3-5.
Bengisu, M. and R. Nekhili (2006) Forecasting emerging technologies with the aid of science and technology databases. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 73, 835-844.
Blind, K., K. Cuhls and H. Grupp (1999) Current Foresight activities in Central Europe. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 60, 15-36.
Carlson, L. W. (2004) Using Technology Foresight to Create Business Value. Research Technology Management, 47, 51-60.
Chermack, T. J. (2005) Studying scenario planning: Theory, research suggestions, and hypotheses. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 72, 59–73.
Cohen, W. M. and D. A. Levinthal (1990) Absorptive-Capacity - a New Perspective on Learning and Innovation. Administrative Science Quarterly, 35, 128-152.
References.
Rohrbeck_Heuer_Arnold_(2006)_Technology-Radar.ppt 12
References (1/4)
Gerybadze, A. (1994) Technology forecasting as a process of organisational intelligence. R & D Management, 24, 131.
Hauptmann, O. and S. L. Pope (1992) The process of applied technology forecasting: a study of executive analysis, anticipation, and planning. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 42, 193-211.
Hoetker, G. (1999) Patterns in patents: Searching the forest not the trees. EContent, 22, 37-45.
Katz, R. and T. J. Allen (1982) Investigating the Not Invented Here (Nih) Syndrome - a Look at the Performance, Tenure, and Communication Patterns of 50 R-and-D Project Groups. R & D Management, 12, 7-19.
Kuwahara, T. (1999) Technology Forecasting Activities in Japan. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 60, 5-14.
Lee, S. and Y. Park (2005) Customization of technology roadmaps according to roadmapping purposes: Overall process and detailed modules. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 72, 567–583.
Lichtenthaler, E. (2005) The choice of technology intelligence methods in multinationals: towards a contingency approach. International Journal of Technology Management, 32, 388-407.
Norling, P. M., J. P. Herring, W. A. Rosenkrans, Jr., M. Stellpflug and S. B. Kaufman (2000) Putting competitive technology intelligence to work. Research Technology Management, 43, 23-28.
References.
Rohrbeck_Heuer_Arnold_(2006)_Technology-Radar.ppt 13
References (1/4)
Pappas, C. (1984) Strategic Management of Technology. Journal of Product Innovation Management, 1, 30-35.
Patton, K. M. (2005) The role of scanning in open intelligence systems. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 72, 1082–1093.
Phaal, R., C. Farrukh, R. Mitchell and D. Probert (2003) Technology roadmapping: Starting-up roadmapping fast. Research Technology Management, 46, 52-58.
Phaal, R., C. J. P. Farrukh and D. R. Probert (2006) Technology management tools: concept, development and application. Technovation, 26, 336–344.
Porter, A. L., A. T. Roper, T. W. Mason, F. A. Rossini and J. Banks (1991) Forecasting and Management of Technology: John Wiley & Sons Inc
Postma, T. J. B. M. and F. Liebl (2005) How to improve scenario analysis as a strategic management tool? Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 72, 161–173.
Rohrbeck, R., J. Heuer, and H. M. Arnold (2006) "The Technology Radar - an Instrument of Technology Intelligence and Innovation Strategy" The 3rd IEEE International Conference on Management of Innovation and Technology: Singapore, pp. 978-983
Rohrbeck, R. (2010) "Harnessing a network of experts for competitive advantage - Technology Scouting in the ICT industry" R&D Management, 40(2), 169-180.
References.
Rohrbeck_Heuer_Arnold_(2006)_Technology-Radar.ppt 14
References (1/4)
Schmoch, U. (1999) Patent statistics in the age of globalisation: new legal procedures, new analytical methods, new economic interpretation. Research Policy, 28, 377-396.
Shehabuddeen, N., D. Probert and R. Phaal (2006) From theory to practice: challenges in operationalising a technology selection framework. Technovation, 26, 324–335.
Vicente, J. M. and F. Palop (1996) Technology monitoring and industrial diversification: A diversification project of an endogamic monoclonal industrial fabric by disseminating innovation opportunities. International Journal of Technology Management, 12, 449-461.
Weimer-Jehle, W. (2006) Cross-impact balances: A system-theoretical approach to cross-impact analysis. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 73, 334–361.
Wells, R., R. Phaal, C. Farrukh and D. Probert (2004) Technology Roadmapping for a Service Organization. Research Technology Management, 47, 46-51.
Wolff, M. F. (1992) Scouting for Technology. Research Technology Management, 35, 10.
References.