Addressing climate change in Nigeria: Vulnerability Assessment and SEA

Adedamola AderiyeSchool of Environmental Sciences

Background

Climate change is happening• Observational evidence from all continents

and most oceans shows that many natural systems are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly temperature increases

• The magnitude of impact varies in terms of geographical location, seasonality, population exposure and development pathways

- IPCC, 2007

Background• Climate change will have a net negative

impact on developing countries.• African countries are the most

vulnerable to the most damaging impacts of climate change, due to the variable climate, propensity for drought and desertification, rapid population growth, endemic poverty, dependence on subsistence agriculture, complex governance and institutional dimensions

• Climate change does not yet feature prominently in developing agenda or policies of most African countries

Issues arising• What is stakeholder perspective of climate

change and other associated risk?• Is there a framework that can provide

guidance to Nigeria on how to address current and future vulnerability to climate change?

• What are the criteria influencing spatial planning policy in Nigeria?

• Are there any barriers in the integration of climate change concerns in spatial planning?

Objectives

1. To develop a framework for climate change vulnerability assessment in spatial planning.

2. To use the framework for evaluating spatial/land use plans in Lagos and two other Nigerian city regions.

3. To determine the elements of SEA that are currently reflected in the spatial plan regime in Nigeria and to establish if there are links between the elements and the extent to which climate change vulnerability is considered.

4. To propose recommendations on how best to integrate climate change concerns into spatial planning in Nigeria.

Objectives

MethodologyThe label attached to a particular research strategy is not as important as its appropriateness for the research to be carried out – Saunders et al. (2009)

Philosophical inclination- Pragmatic worldview

The main vehicles to be employed in this research are documentary analysis of literature, qualitative interviews with policy makers and regulators, and survey of SEA and Vulnerability experts.

Research design

Objective 1Devise a climate

change vulnerability framework.

Objective 2Evaluate spatial land

use plans in Lagos and two other

regions.

Objective 3Establish elements of SEA in existing spatial planning

Objective 4Recommend how to

integrate climate change concerns

into spatial planning

Use framework toUse framework to

Link theory with practice by interviewing Town Planning regulators and Policy makers

Research findings are validated through survey of SEA practitioners

·Determine if the elements exist in practice· Examine if they

identify climate change vulnerability

Literature review and development of analytical framework

Preliminary findings• Little or no attention is paid to climate

change in Nigeria• The scant climate change incentive is driven

by international agreements and financing requirements

• No framework or criteria in place to assess climate change vulnerability in a developing country context

• Social vulnerability cannot exist in isolation from biophysical vulnerability

• Structures and processes in a location, play an important role in determining the magnitude of climate change experienced

Exposure

Geographical context

Biophysical vulnerability

Social vulnerability

Coupled human-environment system

Disaster

Eventual vulnerability to climate change

Adaptive capacity

Vulnerability reduction

Climate exposure

Structures and processes

Coping capacity

Exposure

Geographical context

Biophysical vulnerability

Social vulnerability

Coupled human-environment system

Disaster

Eventual vulnerability to climate change

Adaptive capacity

Vulnerability reduction

Risk identification

and assessment

Risk evaluation

Climate exposure

Structures and processes

Laws and Policies

Coping capacity

Questions

Spatial dimension of Vulnerability

Resilience

Sensitivity

Factors controlling susceptibility

Exposure

Coping capacity

Geographic context

Biophysical vulnerability

Social vulnerability

Eco

no

mic

En

viro

nm

enta

l

So

cia

l

Hazard potential

Coupled human-environment system

Structures &

Processes

Dynamic pressures / Non-climatic stress

Failure to cope

Adaptive capacity

Vulnerability reduction

e.g sea wall barrier

e.g tree planting

e.g awareness

INTE

RVE

NTI

ON

e.g land use change

Risk identification, assessment &

action

Leading to new levels of vulnerability

Potential for another hazard

Disaster

Eventual vulnerability to climate change

The PreliminaryVulnerability Framework

Research area

NigeriaSurface area – 923,768sqkmPopulation -168.8millionGDP – US$459.6 billion (2012)Life expectancy – 52yearsPoverty percentage - 46%Vegetation- from near desert

conditions in the north to swamp mangrove in the delta

Source: World Bank