‘White Flight’ from London? (from http://www.social-statistics.org/?p=864) One of the interesting results from the 2011 Census is that London no longer contains a majority White British residential population, now having only 44.9% of its population classified as White British. That is a 14.9 percentage point decrease from the 59.8% of 2001. Of the 10 Government Regions in England and Wales, London is the only one not to be majority White British. Indeed, it is the only one to be less than 75% White British (the West Midlands comes next at 79.2% White British). The map below gives some idea of how different London is. It is not the only region to contain local authorities that are not majority White British. Neither is it the case that all authorities within London are so. However, 70% of the London Boroughs are not majority White British. The only other local authorities that are not majority White British are Leicester in the East Midlands, Luton in the East, and Slough in the South East. London is unusual.

Figure 1. The proportion of the population that are classified as

White British in the 2011 Census by local authorities The change has led some to speculate that there has been ‘white flight’ from London (see article in the Financial Times, http://on.ft.com/XQekN4). Certainly we observe a stark pattern if we map the local authorities in and around London and classify them according to whether their White British population in 2011 is greater or less than it

was in 2001 in terms of the actual number of people living there. London and all the surrounding counties except Kent and Essex have fewer White British people living in them by 2011. An outer ring of counties has seen its White British population grow (but only in absolute terms; in all cases the proportion of the population that is White British has shrunk).

Figure 2. Showing the places in and around London where the (absolute) number

of White British residents has increased or decreased.

The nature of the change can also be witnessed by calculating the index of unevenness (see http://www.social-statistics.org/?p=847) for each of the main ethnic groups. The index gives the proportion of the group that would have to move from one local authority to another to create an even distribution of the group across the region shown in the map. It is a measure of clustering. However, the index does not consider how far people from the group would have to travel to create an even distribution. The index of redistribution does do that – it is how far, in kilometres, an average person from the group would have to travel to create an even distribution across the study region. Both indices are shown in Table 1.

Table 1. Indices of unevenness and redistribution and their change from 2001.

From the index values we find that the White British population is the least unevenly distributed. That is hardly surprising given that is the most dominant group and given the clear spatial clustering of the other ethnic groups (see these maps). However, it is also the only one of the six ethnic groups becoming more unevenly distributed; because of the shift of the population to the outer regions further away from London. In 2001 the local authorities shaded dark green in the map contained 51% of the White British population in the study region. By 2011 the percentage had risen to 54%. What also is notable is that the greatest decreases in the White British population tend to occur in those local authorities that already had the lowest proportions of the group in 2001 (where the decrease is measured as a proportional change relative to the 2001 White British population). In other words, there has been a greater reduction in the White British population in those places that the group were already less dominant. This is shown below. So is what we are seeing ‘white flight’? Well, I’m not sure I’d describe it in such potentially emotive terms but it’s hard to escape the conclusion that there has been a redistribution of the White British population away from London. Quite what the reasons for that might be remain to be discovered. (c) Richard Harris, 2013. The calculations and analysis are presented in good faith but no liability is accepted as a consequence of any unintended errors or mistakes.

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Ethnic group Unevenness Index Change from 2001 Redistribution Index Change from 2001 White 0.14 +0.04 8.49 +2.74 Indian 0.42 -0.06 22.8 -3.61 Pakistani 0.51 -0.01 23.1 -1.04 Bangladeshi 0.58 -0.03 29.4 -3.19 Black African 0.45 -0.11 26.5 -4.84 Black Caribbean 0.51 -0.07 28.8 -5.42

Figure 2. Showing the proportional change in the White British population (2011 – 2001) for local authorities in the study region and how that relates to their White

British population in 2001.