Climate change and time traps …and what to do

Disclaimer: not necessarily the views of the Welsh Government

Time trap 1: environmental inertia

Modelled warmingIPCC emissions scenarios

Source: Hadley Centre

Time trap 2: infrastructure upgrade

Time trap 3: innovation

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

Toyota hybrid sales

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100.0

1,000,000.0

2,000,000.0

3,000,000.0

4,000,000.0

5,000,000.0

6,000,000.0

7,000,000.0

8,000,000.0

9,000,000.0

10,000,000.0

Toyota total sales - hybrid and non-hybrid

Time trap 4: changing human behaviour

Smoking prevalence All > age 16 (Britain)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Time trap 5: economic expectations

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

Gross World Product - US$ relative to 2010 = 1.0

10x

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

Gross World Product - US$ relative to 2010 = 1.0

2.4% per person per year

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 20700.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Gross World Product - US$ relative to 2010 = 1.0

7x

GDP per capita current US$

CO

2 em

issi

on

s p

er c

apit

a (t

on

nes

/yea

r)GDP growth has huge GHG increase potential

World Bank – World Development Indicators . Visualisation by Google public data explorer

Most important issues facing Britain

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 20100

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Pollution / environment

Peak concern on climate

change

Ozone hole

Most important issues facing Britain

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 20100

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Economy

Unemployment

Non-negotiable?

Living within ecological limits is the non negotiable basis for our social and economic development

Jonathan Porritt

The negotiation

Time trap 6: price expectations

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160 Oil price US$/barrel Brent crude

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20500

50

100

150

200

250

300

Shadow cost of carbon £/tCO2 EU ETS carbon price

Carbon price expectations

Part 2: What to do about it?

What to do 1: just stop it!

Stop it! The 2oC commitment…

Developing countries peak in 2020 and fall at

8% per year after

Developed countries peak in 2010 and fall at

10% per year after

Anderson K , Bows A Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 2011;369:20-44

CO2 scenarios for approximately 37% chance of not exceeding 2°C.

What to do 2: form clubs

20 countries - 80% emissions

Source: Garnaut Climate Change Review

Concentration in innovation investment

0

20

40

60

80

100%

J apan China France Korea Brazil

UnitedStates Germany

UnitedKingdom

IndiaCanada

Russia

Gross expenditure on public & private R&D , 2007Percentage share of global total

Source: David Victor, Global Warming Gridlock - citing UNESCO data

What to do 3: switch to policies & measures

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 21000.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

Create a carbon price 2010= 1.0

• Globally co-ordinated carbon tax• Nationally collected• Predictably rising• Very long term• No shocks

What to do 4: pricing not quantities

What to do 5: deals• Nuclear fuel cycle management• LNG infrastructure for China• Forest and sink protection• Grid infrastructure for desert solar concentrators• Product and building energy efficiency standards• Water trading and river basin management• Carbon pricing with border tax adjustments• Global sectoral agreements – automotive, aviation, steel

• Etc etc…

What to do 6: focus on ‘no regrets’

10

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000

En

erg

y d

en

sity

by

we

igh

t (w

att

ho

urs

/ k

g)

Energy density by volume (watt hours / litre)

10,000

1,000

100

Gaseous fuels

CNG

Hydrogen absorbing

alloy

Hydrogen

Liquid fuelsEthanol

Gasoline

Bio-dieselDiesel

What to do 7: innovation strategy

Batteries

Lithium-ionNickel metal

Lead

Source: Toyota

Energy storage density

What to do 8: emphasise adaptation

Misallocation: low carbon vs adaptation?

Source: Policy Exchange, Delivering 21st Infrastructure for Britain, 2009

Anticipate harmful mal-adaptations

What to do 9: the geoengineering hedge

What to do 10: future proofing

What to do? Ten thoughts…1. Stop it!2. Clubs3. Policies & measures4. Global carbon price5. Deals6. No-regrets7. Innovation8. Adaptation9. Geoengineering hedge10.Future proofing

Six time traps1. Environmental response2. Infrastructure3. Innovation4. Human behaviour5. Economic expectations6. Price signals

Thank you