Aviation and Electrical Road Vehicles

Aviation and Electrical Road Vehicles

José A. Fregnani and Bento MattosAeronautical Institute of Technology (ITA), Brazil.Environmental Impact Mitigation (ATIO.ATM13), June 15th, 2016Washington, DC.


• Objectives Evaluate the evolution of the air transportation emissions in

the coming decades;

Overview of the aeronautical and aviation industries efforts to mitigate the impact of aviation on environment;

Analyze the impact of the widespread utilization of electric road vehicles on environment;

Estimate the relative increase of the aviation emissions due to the widespread adoption of electric ground vehicles;

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• The Air Transport Industry Transportation plays a vital role for the strength of the economy

worldwide. Within the transportation sector, commercial aviation has evolved from the 1960s to present days into the fastest, safest and also into a global transportation mode;

According to IATA nowadays over 3 billion people, nearly half the world’s population, use the regular air transport, whose industry generates on a worldwide scale 56 million jobs, both direct and indirect;

Aircraft carry only 0.5% of the world’s trade shipments, which represents about 35% of the value of all world trade. This productivity is achieved by consuming just 2.2% of the world’s energy.

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Temperature and CO2 concentration over the past 650,000 years

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Strong correlation between CO2 concentration and temperature

EPICA Dome C Core EDC96 Dielectric Profiling Data,


• The Air Transport Contribution

5N. Stern, The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review, Cambridge University Press, January 2007, 712 pages.

The a 2006 report states that the largest contributor to human-induced CO2 is power generation (24%), mostly produced in electricity stations burning gas and coal.

Land use hits 18%, then agriculture, industry and transport at 14% each (aviation contribution is in the 2-2.5% range).

Buildings (8%), other energy related activities (5%).


• The Air Transport Industry Commitment

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Group on International Aviation and Climate Change (GIACC) Report, Montreal, Canada, June 2009.

Improvement in fuel efficiency of 1.5% per year from 2009 to 2020 (measures under industry control, linked to operational procedures and basic infrastructure improvements).

Carbon-neutral growth at 2020 (fuel CO2 emissions are neutralized).

Reduction in CO2 emissions to 50% of 2005 levels by 2050.


• The Air Transport Industry Initiatives

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Based on this industry commitment, in order to achieve the above high-level goals, the aviation industry, led by the International Air Transport Association (IATA), announced the so-called “Four-pillar Strategy” with the objective to commit the industry stakeholders on such emissions reduction goals:

And also regulatory enforcements …

International Air Transport Association, IATA (2013). Technology Roadmap. 4th edition, June 2013. Montreal, Canada, 2013.

Technology O perations Infrastructure Biofuels and Economic measures

New airframe and engine technologies

Improved operational procedures

More efficient air t raffic management Global offset mechanisms

Retrofits More efficient flight procedures More efficient airports Positive economic incentives

Sustainable aviat ion fuels Weight reduction Public-private initiatives


• Fuel efficiency gain since the early jet age Over the last 50 years the fuel burn (and also the carbon emissions) per passenger

kilometer has been reduced by over 70%.

8Nolte, P. et.al, “Quantitative Assessment of Technology Impact on Aviation Fuel Efficiency,” Air Transport Operation Symposium, Delft, June 2012.


• Flight Operations The development of new operational procedures and techniques are

relevant, but limited to the current technological limitations;

Fuel conservation programs are widely se by airlines and improvements are set observed on the magnitude of 5% to 10% at most;

This represents a significant improvement with relatively small amounts of investments and airlines are constantly encouraged to optimize their operations on Fuel Conservation initiatives;

Air Traffic Management Initiatives (infrastructure related) would bring at 12% improvement on ful consumption, according to ICAO.

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• New Technologies (Airframe)

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group Concept Technology Applicability Fuel

Reduction Benefit

Technology Readiness Level 24 in

2014

Expected Availability

Aircraft Configurat ion

Truss braced wing After 2020 10 to 15% 2 2028 Hybrid wing-body After 2020 10 to 15% 4 2026

Cruise efficient stall After 2020 < 1% 3 2027 Flying without landing gear After 2030 10% to 20% 1 2032

Aerodynamics

Advanced Wingtip

Wingtip fence Retrofit 1% to 3% 9 2012 Blended winglet

/Sharklets Retrofit 3% to 6% 9 2012

Racked wingtip Retrofit 3% to 6% 9 2012

Split winglets (scimitar t ips) Retrofit 2% to 6% 7 2022

Spiroid wingtip After 2020 2% to 6% 7 2022

High Lift Devices

High lift / Low Noise After 2020 1% to 3% 4 2026

Variable Camber

Trailing Edge Before 2020 1% to 2% 9 2012

Dropped spoiler Before 2020 1% to 2% 9 2012

Hingeless flap After 2030 1% to 2% 3 2027

Drag reduction

Drag coating Retrofit < 1% 9 2012 Turbulent flow

coating (riblets)

Retrofit 1% 8 2015

Graphic Films Retrofit 1% 9 2012 Natural Laminar Flow After 2020 5% to 10% 7 2022 Hybrid Laminar Flow After 2020 10% to 15% 7 2022

Variable Camber Before 2020 1% to 3% 8 2015 Variable Camber with new

control surfaces After 2020 1% to 5% 5 2024


• New Technologies (Engines)

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Group Concept Technology Applicability Fuel

Reduction Benefit

Technology Readiness

Level in 2014

Expected Availability

New Engine Architecture

Geared Turbofans Before 2020 10%-15% 7 2016 Advanced Turbofans Before 2020 10%-15% 7 2016 Counter rotating fan After 2020 15%-20% 3 2019

Open Rotor After 2020 15%-20% 5 2019 New engine core concepts After 2030 25%-30% 2 2026 Embedded Distributed Fan After 2030 Less than 1% 2 2026

Advanced Concepts

Fan

Component Improvements Before 2020 2%-6% 8 2013

Zero Hub Before 2020 2%-4% 7 2016 High BPR Before 2020 2%-6% 7 2016 Variable Nozzle After 2020 1%-2% 7 2016

Combustor

Variable Flow Splits After 2020 1%-2% 5 2020

Ultra compact low emission Before 2020 1%- 2% 5 2020

Advanced Before 2020 5%-10% 8 2013

Compressor Bling concept After 2030 1%-3% 3 2023 Bisk Concept After 2020 1%-3% 7 2016

Variable Geometry Chevron After 2020 Less than 1% 5 2020 Nacelles and Installation

Buried engines After 2020 1%-3% 5 2020 Reduced nacelle weight Before 2020 1%-3% 7 2016

Engines Cycles

Adaptive Cycles After 2030 5%-15% 2 2030 Pulse Detonation After 2030 5%-15% 2 2030

Others Boundary Layer Ingestion Inlet After 2020 1%-3% 3 2023 Ubiquitous Composites After 2020 10%-15% 3 2023 Adaptive flow control After 2020 10%-20% 2 2026


• The ERA Initiative (US)

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Created in 2009, as part of NASA's Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate's Integrated Systems Research Program, the Environmentally Responsible Aviation;

Explores and documents the feasibility, benefits and technical risk of vehicle concepts and enabling technologies to reduce aviation’s impact on the environment;

Slashing aircraft level fuel burn by 50%, drag by 8%, weight by 10%, emissions by at least 70% and noise by up to 42 EPNdb.


• The Clean Sky Project (EU)

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Created in 2008, Clean Sky is one of the most ambitious aeronautical research program ever launched in Europe. Its mission is to develop breakthrough technologies to reduce environmental impacts of aircraft and aerial vehicles, i. e., aircraft that are quieter and more fuel-efficient;

Large Passenger Aircraft.

Green Regional Aircraft

Fast Rotorcraft.

Advanced Airframes.

Small Air Transport


• Electrical Road Vehicles

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An electric car is an automobile that is powered by one or more electric motors, using electrical energy stored in batteries that can be recharged or another energy storage device;

Electric motors provide instant torque, enabling and smooth high acceleration;

In average, electric ground vehicles are around three times more efficient than cars with an internal combustion engine;

EVs manufacturers face significant battery-related challenges such as:

Range and autonomy increase;

Develop shorter battery recharge times;

lower battery cost;

develop lighter battery packages.


• Electrical Road Vehicles – Key Advantages

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Higher torque; Increased propulsion efficiency; Quieter than vehicles powered by internal combustion engines; Greater simplicity; Greater reliability; Uses regenerative brake; In use, do not pollute the environment; Less maintenance; When stopped and in use, do not consume fuel; Can be used for energy storage; Flexibility in relation to power supply sources; More power per weight unit or volume unit;

Tesla Model S


Is a multi-government policy forum dedicated to accelerating the introduction and adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) worldwide;

EVI is one of several initiatives launched in 2010 under the Clean Energy Ministerial, a high-level dialogue among energy ministers from the world’s major economies;

EVI currently includes 15 member governments from Africa, Asia, Europe, and North America, as well as participation from the International Energy Agency (IEA) ;

The initiative seeks to facilitate the global deployment of 20 million EVs, including plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles, by 2020;

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If cars go electric, the aviation share of greenhouse gases generation will rise sharply!

• The Electric Vehicles Initiative


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• The Electric Vehicles Initiative – Sales Target

According to InsideEVs.com,

total sales of EVs in the United

States rose 23% annually in 2014!


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• The Electric Vehicles Initiative – Stocks Target


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• Will future airplanes become more electric?

0,02

0,03

0,04

0,05

0,06

0,07

0,08

0,09

0,1

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000

Kg FU

EL/P

AX.n

m

Range (nm)

Jet Transport Aircraft Fuel Efficiency

Long Range Aircraft

Short/Medium RangeAircraft

F100

B717-200

DC9-50

F70

CRJ200

B735 E170

ERJ145MD82 E190

B738A320

B733

B762

DC10-10

DC10-30

B752

A306 IL96

B742

B744

A343

B789

A380

B772LR


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If in coming decades the sales or electric vehicles soars, considerably replacing internal combustion vehicles, noise and emission percentage caused by road vehicles will drop significantly;

In this possible scenario, the contribution of aviation to pollution (and noise levels) will be then raised to new heights.

• The Emissions Impact

Boeing forecasts that the demand for airliners ranging from regional jets to widebody airplanes will grow an average of 3.6% a year in the 2015-2034 timeframe.

Airliner fleet will grow from 21,600 in 2014 to 43,560 in 2034


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• Projected CO2 emissions by transport modals (Gt)

Year Road Aviation Maritme Road Total Aviation Total Maritme Total

2000 4.10 0,70 0.50 77.4% 13.2% 9.4%

2005 4.30 0,80 0.60 75.4% 14.0% 10.5%

2010 4.80 0.90 0.60 76.2% 14.3% 9.5%

2015 5.20 1.00 0.80 74.3% 14.3% 11.4%

2020 5.70 1.10 0.80 75.0% 14.5% 10.5%

2025 6.10 1.30 0.80 74.4% 15.9% 9.8%

2030 6.50 1.50 0,80 73.9% 17.0% 9.1%

2035 7.00 1.60 0.80 74.5% 17.0% 8.5%

2040 7.45 1.85 0.90 73.0% 18.1% 8.8%

2045 8.00 2.00 1.00 72.7% 18.2% 9.1%

2050 8.60 2.30 0.90 72.9% 19.5% 7.6%

Fulton, L. and Eads, G., “IEA/SMP Model Documentation and Reference Case Projection,” IEA, July 2004. International Energy Agency, “Global Energy Outlook”, Paris, 2009.


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• IEA Projected CO2 emissions by transport modals (Gt)



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• IEA Scenarios for Aviation`s Biofuel Penetration to 2050


2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20500

100

200

300

400

500

600

Conservative Scenario Agressive Scenario Petroleum Jet Fuel

Mto

nnes


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• Projected EVs share growth up to 2050

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20500%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Source: InsideEVs.com


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• Aviation Contribution on CO2 Emissions related to EVs

EV efficiency = 80% and airplanes will not use biofuels

Year % Evs in the world fleet

Aviation impact on global CO2

emissions without Evs


emissions with Evs

Difference (%)

2000 0% 13,2% 13,2% 0,0% 2005 0% 14,0% 14,0% 0,0% 2010 0% 14,3% 14,3% 0,0% 2015 10% 14,3% 15,2% 0,9% 2020 15% 14,5% 15,9% 1,4% 2025 20% 15,9% 18,0% 2,1% 2030 25% 17,0% 20,0% 3,0% 2035 30% 17,0% 20,7% 3,7% 2040 50% 18,1% 25,6% 7,5% 2045 80% 18,2% 34,0% 15,8% 2050 100% 19,5% 46,7% 27,3%


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EV efficiency = 80% and airplanes using biofuels

Year Biofuel use

(share on total Aviation Fuel Volume)




emissions with Evs

Difference (%)

2000 0% 13,2% 13,2% 0,0% 2005 0% 14,0% 14,0% 0,0% 2010 0% 14,3% 14,3% 0,0% 2015 0% 14,3% 15,2% 0,9% 2020 1% 14,4% 15,8% 1,4% 2025 3% 15,6% 17,7% 2,1% 2030 5% 16,5% 19,4% 2,9% 2035 11% 15,9% 19,4% 3,5% 2040 18% 16,3% 23,2% 6,9% 2045 28% 15,1% 29,3% 14,1% 2050 43% 14,5% 38,1% 23,6%


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EV efficiency = 20% and airplanes will not use biofuels

Year % Evs in the world fleet




emissions with Evs

Difference (%)

2000 0% 13,2% 13,2% 0,0% 2005 0% 14,0% 14,0% 0,0% 2010 0% 14,3% 14,3% 0,0% 2015 10% 14,3% 14,5% 0,2% 2020 15% 14,4% 14,8% 0,4% 2025 20% 15,6% 16,3% 0,7% 2030 25% 16,5% 17,7% 1,2% 2035 30% 15,9% 17,8% 1,9% 2040 50% 16,3% 19,6% 3,3% 2045 80% 15,1% 20,6% 5,5% 2050 100% 14,5% 22,8% 8,3%


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EV efficiency = 20% and airplanes using biofuels

Year Biofuel use

(share on total Aviation Fuel Volume)




emissions with Evs

Difference (%)

2000 0% 13,2% 13,2% 0,0% 2005 0% 14,0% 14,0% 0,0% 2010 0% 14,3% 14,3% 0,0% 2015 0% 14,3% 14,5% 0,2% 2020 1% 14,4% 14,7% 0,3% 2025 3% 15,6% 16,0% 0,5% 2030 5% 16,5% 17,2% 0,6% 2035 11% 15,9% 16,7% 0,8% 2040 18% 16,3% 17,6% 1,3% 2045 28% 15,1% 17,2% 2,1% 2050 43% 14,5% 17,1% 2,7%


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• Noise Aspects With the increasing use of electrical road vehicles, reaching an adherence between 90% and

100% up to 2050, cities will be most likely quieter and the communities will therefore perceive aviation noise on vicinities of airports with more sensitivity;

Verheijen and Jabben study: 90% of passenger road vehicles and 80% of the heavy trucks were substituted with

electric vehicles in a city of the Netherlands. A noise reduction map was made of the entire city and an overall noise reduction in order

of 3 dB was effectively measured by the first time in several places. This study showed that electric cars could mean a significant reduction in the noise level

on urban roads with speed below 30 km/h. At speeds above 50 km/h, electric and hybrid cars are not quieter than conventional cars

because the tire-road noise increases with speed and becomes the dominant noise source

Verheijen and J. Jabben, “Effect of electric cars on traffic noise and safety”, RIVM letter report 680300009,” National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, the Netherlands, 2010.


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• Noise Aspects Although a noise reduction of 3 dB seems to be

small at first glance, this is not.

The noise contours (LAeq) around London City Airport revelas that the area between the 57 dB, the highest acceptable noise level, and 60 dB, it is easily to perceive that a 3 dB noise reduction has a great impact in communities close to airports;

In aviation, noise reductions up to 5 dB magnitudes are hard to obtain with operational mitigations only and therefore this level of reduction would be probably reached on aircraft and engine design improvements.


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• To think about it! Radical aircraft design targeting emission reductions must thus become reality as the ones

envisaged by ERA and CleanSky programs;

Electric road vehicles will become a considerable part of road vehicles in upcoming decades, causing a profound impact on pollutant emission levels and noise;

In 2050 under the most “pessimistic scenario” for aviation, when 100% of the road vehicles supposedly would be electrical (with maximum efficiency 80%) and no biofuels would be used, the participation of aviation on transport CO2 emissions would be 46.7%, 3.3 times greater than the 2005 levels (considering that no EVs and no biofuels are present);

Introduction of biofuels into commercial aviation may be probably not enough to compensate the relative increase in percentage of aviation in CO2 emissions due to the increasing share of electrical road vehicles.

THANK YOU!

José A. Fregnani Bento Mattos

Aeronautical Institute of Technology (ITA), Brazil

Engineering

Aviation and Electrical Road Vehicles