Irbid growth using regression modle.2003to2013

Urban growth in Irbid Jordan using

Regression model 2002-2013

The subject: study the growth of Irbid from 2002-2013Purpose: show theUse regression model to estimate the growth in Irbid and the main elements that effect the growth and the built up area.Estimate the growth direction in Irbid by using GIS system

Done by Shomou Farouq Al JizawiSupervision D.r Imad al hashimy

Urban growth in Irbid Jordan using Regression model

The subject: study the growth of Irbid from 2002-2013Purpose: show theUse regression model to estimate the growth in Irbid and the main elements that effect the growth and the built up area.Estimate the growth direction in Irbid by using GIS system.

AbstractThis study applied leaner regression to model urban growth in Irbid to discover the relationship between urban growth and the driving forces. We will use cross section from 2002 to 2013.There are many factors affect the new building construction growth in the city which leads to urban growth. What we will study in this paper is.

A. Find the main 'Y' that represents the growth of built up area using leaner regression model.

The probable depending Y's are: Total Number of Building permits each year Total new Building area each year Total building construction price each year Building construction price per square meter.

B. The percentage of growth in Irbid city from 2004 to 2013.

Population and density growth. Built up area "new building construction".

C. Using GIS to study the direction of growth in Irbid.

1. INTRODUCTIONDue to the high concentration of population in urban areas there is a rapid growth in urban. Urban development has often the meaning of urban growth. Thus, the rapid change in the pattern of urban within a short period of time can be seen. On the other hand, understanding the mechanisms of urban development is crucial for planning and urban management in order to achieve sustainable urban development. Therefore, I will develop a model for study the urban growth. The modeling aims to discover the relationship between urban growth regarding to the increase in the built up area and population and density growth in Irbid.

2. PROPOSED METHODOLOGY

Specification-choice the variables dependent Y and independent X.

Table 1List of variables included in the linear regression model

Variable Meaning Nature of variableDependentY1 Total Number of Building permits each year Continuous

Y2 Total new Building area each year ContinuousY3 Total building construction price each year Continuous

Y4 Building construction price per square meter. Continuous

IndependentX1 Population ContinuousX2 Population density (person/km2) Continuous

3. THE DATA FOR THE STUDY AREAIn this research the process of urban growth is modeled for the city of Irbid. Irbid is the 2nd largest city in population in Jordan according to statistics provided by the Statistical Center of Jordan, the city of Irbid, with an area of about 1,572 square kilometers and a population of about 1.16 million. It is the city with the highest density in Jordan. The city of Irbid, is located in the north of Jordan 320 35, to 350 48, .In this study, the satellite images shows the built up area of Irbid in the years

2004, 2008, 2011 and 2013 are used.

Table 2populationdensityTotal Number of

Building permits each year

total New Building area each year

total new Building construction price per year

Building constructionPrice per m2

year

95070060430004305504939980010520029776006213036484678578997001102003952000605372962651376473600112200497480062034636871558767340011720059968006343641821372963000001152006

101870064829256108257510000011320071041300662.424976043439910000015520081064400677.11867527856851000001512009108810069218675477069290000015620101110300706186753400062357000116201111371007232217691600623570009020121162300739.52418733787880544401202013

%22%22-%19%70%78%14%of increase between q` 2002- 2013

10395086612710.5608365.477726245121.6AVARAGE

List for cross section data for Irbid for 2002 to 2013

4. EVALUATION AND RESULTSTable 2I used the SPSS program to find. The best y and x which will represent the growth of Irbid city. The association between the variables.Estimation for the coefficients a's and b's which is shown in the result of spss computer program.Give the tests results T test R2 test XY

PopulationX1

DensityX2

Population & density 2x's T test R2 test

Total number of Building permits

(Y1,X1) 5.424 .618(Y1,X2) 5.2 .617

(Y1,X1,X2) 5.427 .618Total Building construction area

(Y2,X1) .76 .055(Y2,X2) .477 .237

(Y2,X1,X2) .481 .055Total construction price

(Y3,X1) .513 .026(Y3,X2) .537 .027

(Y3,X1,X2) .548 .26price per m2 (Y4,X1) .8 .24

(Y4,X2) .6 .024(Y4,X1,X2) .6 .24

The best y is the Total number of Building permits with either one x or 2 x's population and density.

The result the best Y and X is

1. YTotal number of Building permitswithXpopulation.2. YTotal number of Building permitswithXdensity.3. YTotal number of Building permitswith Xpopulation +Xdensity.

In research on how population growth affects built up area. There is a strong relation how greater population size and density affect the growth of total Number of Building permits each year.

The relationship between population and density growth and the total Number of Building permits each year is negatively correlated.What we found that the number of new building permits decrease while the population and the built up area increased and that’s related to many reason1- Now they built building with from 7 to 21 or more flats per building.2- Single building like villas is less.3- We have new malls building which area is very big. There is no correlation between the growth of population size and density with the total New Building area each year. There is no correlation between the growth of population size and density with the total new building construction price. There is no correlation between the growth of population size and density with the building construction price per square meter

The graph for the best Y and X

The association of the variables is

Y1=a-+b X1 or Y1=a-+b X1-+b X2

Single regression

1-YTotal number of Building permits=a-+b Xpopulation

2-YTotal number of Building permits=a-+b Xdensity

Multiple regressions

3-YTotal number of Building permits=a-+b Xdensity-+bXpopulation

One of the single regression

YTotal number of Building permits=10433.9-.007Xpopulation

The elasticity is bigger than 1

The relation is elastic

The percentage of growth in Irbid city from 2002 to 2013.

1. Population and density growth.2. Built up area "new building construction".

1. Population and density growth.

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014850000

900000

950000

1000000

1050000

1100000

1150000

1200000

950700977600

952000974800

9968001018700

10413001064400

10881001110300

1162300

the population persentage growth in irbid

the population persentage growth in irbid

The population now is 1162300 personincreased 211600 personfrom 2002 to 3013 which representa 22% increase from 2002 which is a high percentage.

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014540

560

580

600

620

640

660

680

700

720

740

604621

605620

634648

662.4677.1

692706

723

the density in irbid

the density in irbid

The density now is 120person per km2increased 135 person per km2from 2002 to 3013 which represent an 22% increase which is a high percentage.

2-Built up area "new building construction".

20023002

40025002

60027002

80029002

01021102

21023102

0000001000002000003000004000005000006000007000008000009

aera gnidliuB weN latot

aera gnidliuB weN latot

The total new building area in 2013 is 733787 m2which represent a 70% increase which is very high percentage, with an average of 608365 and a sum of 7300385 m2 in 12 years from 2002 to 3013.

20022004

20062008

20102012

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

Total Number of Building permits

Total Number of Building permits

The total number of Building permits in 2013 is 2418which represent a 19% decrease,but in 2012 it started to increase again. Its average is 2710.5 and with sum of 32527 in 12 years from 2002 to 3013.

20022004

20062008

20102012

0

20000000

40000000

60000000

80000000

100000000

120000000

Total price for building construction each year

Total price for building con-struction each year

The total new Building construction price in 2013 is 88054440 JDwhich represent a 78% increase, with an average of 77726245 JD and a sum of 932714940 in 12 years from 2002 to 3013.

20022004

20062008

20102012

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

price per m2 for building construction each year

price per m2 for building con-struction each year

The building construction price per m2in 2013 is 120 JD which represent a 14% increase from 2002, with an average of 121.2 JD from 2002 to 3013.

N

D. Using GIS to study the direction of growth in Irbid.

In this paper, four satellite images of Ibid, which were taken in2004, 2008, 2012 and 2014, are used as the base information layers to study the changes in urban growth direction of the city of Irbid. The direction of the urban growth for the city of Irbid is to the north toward Amman the capital of Jordan, the other direction or growth is in the direction of Petra Street and in the center of the city which made the city very crowded. In a period of twelve years the increase of population is 22% 211600 from 2002 with total population of 1162300 person is clear in the GIS photos. The increase in the built up area from 2002 to 2013 is 7300385 m2 which represent 70% increase from 2002.

6. IMPLEMENTATION AND RESULTIn the first step of research, was obtained the variables. Then we collect the data that is needed, the next step was by using linear regression model to find the best x's and Y's that represent the urban growth of Irbid city regarding to the city growth. Then we defined the direction of growth in Irbid by using GIS Arial views. Finally, the simulated image of the urban growth was generated.

7. CONCLUSIONIn this paper, at the beginning of the study I thought that the new building area or the price are one of the main element that effect the growth and can represent Y in a good way but after I worked on the SPSS I found out that they are not effective. Also the price per m2 was the highest in the year's 2008, 2009, and 2010 while the built up expansion and the new building growth was the highest in these three years which show us that the price factor is not important and doesn’t affect the growth. In the other hand the number of new building permits represents the best Y and represents the growth with successful results. the number of new building permits is decreasing from 2002 until 2013 by 14% while the growth is rapidly increasing and that’s related to the decrease of the multi flat and level buildings, the decrease of the villas and the increase of the huge building with thousands of m2 area like the hypermarkets and the huge malls and shopping center which appear in the past years. But I think there will be a limit then the number of permits will start to increase again.The satellite images of Irbid are used as the base information layers to study the direction of the urban growth which is mainly to the north of Irbid in the direction to Amman and to the east which appear after al Petra Street constructed. In my opinion it's very important to study the urban growth, the element that affects it and the direction of growth to be able to estimate the future expansion and its directions to design the best future urban solutions.

2004

2008

DEPENDENT Y= Number of Building permits In Irbid

INDEPENDENT X= population In Irbid.

Regression

Variables Entered/Removeda

ModelVariables EnteredVariables

Removed

Method

1population In Irbid.

.Enter

a. Dependent Variable: Number of Building permits In Irbid

b. All requested variables entered.

Model Summary

ModelRR SquareAdjusted R SquareStd. Error of the

Estimate

1.786a.618.580446.03847

a. Predictors: (Constant), population In Irbid

ANOVAa

ModelSum of SquaresdfMean SquareFSig.

1

Regression3224853.76313224853.76316.209.002b

Residual1989503.15410198950.315

Total5214356.91711


b. Predictors: (Constant), population In Irbid.

Coefficientsa

ModelUnstandardized CoefficientsStandardized

Coefficients

tSig.

BStd. ErrorBeta

1

)Constant(10433.9521922.6505.427.000

population In Irbid.

.-007-.002.-786--4.026-.002


Graph

REGRESSION

DEPENDENT Y= Number of Building permits In Irbid

INDEPENDENT X= density In Irbid

Regression



Removed

Method

1density In Irbid.Enter



Model Summary


Estimate

1.786a.617.579446.75889

a. Predictors: (Constant), density In Irbid

ANOVAa


1

Regression3218421.85613218421.85616.125.002b

Residual1995935.06010199593.506

Total5214356.91711


b. Predictors: (Constant), density In Irbid

Coefficientsa


Coefficients

tSig.

BStd. ErrorBeta

1)Constant(10394.3751917.8365.420.000

density In Irbid-11.624-2.895.-786--4.016-.002

Graph

REGRESSION

DEPENDENT Y = Number of Building permits In Irbid

INDEPENDENT X1= density In Irbid

INDEPENDENT X2= population In Irbid.

Regression


ModelVariables EnteredVariables RemovedMethod

1Population In Irbid.Enter

a. Dependent Variable Number of Building permits In Irbid

b. Tolerance = .000 limits reached.

Model Summary

ModelRR SquareAdjusted R SquareStd. Error of the Estimate

1.786a.618.580446.03847


ANOVAa


1

Regression3224853.76313224853.76316.209.002b

Residual1989503.15410198950.315

Total5214356.91711


b. Predictors: (Constant), population In Irbid


Excluded Variablesa

ModelBeta IntSig.Partial CorrelationCollinearity

Statistics

Tolerance

1density In Irbid21.953b.646.534.2113.511E-005

Graph

REGRESSION

DEPENDENT Y= Building area In Irbid

Coefficientsa


Coefficients

tSig.

BStd. ErrorBeta

1)Constant(10433.9521922.6505.427.000

population In Irbid.-007-.002.-786--4.026-.002


b. Predictors in the Model: (Constant), population In Irbid


Regression



Removed

Method

1Population In

Irbid.Enter

a. Dependent Variable: Building area In Irbid


Model Summary


Estimate

1.234a.055.-040-113890.54104


ANOVAa


1

Regression7487628845.72317487628845.723.577.465b

Residual129710553379.19

31012971055337.919

Total137198182224.91

711



Coefficientsa


Coefficients

tSig.

BStd. ErrorBeta

1)Constant(236210.357490925.428.481.641

population In Irbid.358.471.234.760.465


Graph

REGRESSION


INDEPENDENT X= density In Irbid.

Regression



Removed

Method




Model Summary


Estimate

1.237a.056.-038-113803.11318


ANOVAa


1

Regression7686696534.90517686696534.905.594.459b

Residual129511485690.01

11012951148569.001

Total137198182224.91

711



Coefficientsa


Coefficients

tSig.

BStd. ErrorBeta

1)Constant(232853.287488531.349.477.644

density in Irbid568.097737.406.237.770.459


Graph




Regression



Removed

Method

1Population In

Irbid.Enter




ANOVAa


1

Regression7487628845.72317487628845.723.577.465b

Residual129710553379.19

31012971055337.919

Total137198182224.91

711



Coefficientsa

Model Summary


Estimate

1.234a.055.-040-113890.54104


Coefficients

tSig.

BStd. ErrorBeta

1)Constant(236210.357490925.428.481.641

Population In Irbid.358.471.234.760.465


Excluded Variables


Statistics

Tolerance

1Density In Irbid87.980b1.906.089.5363.511E-005

DEPENDENT Y= Building Price Per year In Irbid




Regression



Removed

Method

1population In Irbid

.Enter

a. Dependent Variable: Building Price Per year


Model Summary


Estimate

1.160a.026.-072-17006552.42486


ANOVAa


1

Regression76199170968913.

0601

76199170968913.

060.263.619b

Residual289222825379438

7.00010

289222825379438

.700

Total296842742476330

0.00011

a. Dependent Variable: Building Price Per year In Irbid


Coefficientsa


Coefficients

tSig.

BStd. ErrorBeta

1

)Constant(40183424.48673306781.656.548.596

population In Irbid

36.11670.362.160.513.619


Graph


DEPENDENT X= density In Irbid.

Regression



Removed

Method




Model Summary


Estimate

1.165a.027.-070-16992790.57774



Coefficientsa


ANOVAa


1

Regression80878108572431.

7201

80878108572431.

720.280.608b

Residual288754931619086

8.50010

288754931619086

.900

Total296842742476330

0.00011


Coefficients

tSig.

BStd. ErrorBeta

1)Constant(39207724.71872946254.935.537.603

density In Irbid58273.102110107.613.165.529.608


Graph

REGRESSION


INDEPENDENT X1= density In Irbid

IN DEPENDENT X2 = Population InIrbid.

Regression



Removed

Method

1Population In Irbid

.Enter



Model Summary


Estimate

1.160a.026.-072-17006552.42486


ANOVAa


1

Regression76199170968913.060176199170968913.060.263.619b

Residual2892228253794387.00010289222825379438.700

Total2968427424763300.00011

Coefficientsa




Coefficients

tSig.

BStd. ErrorBeta

1)Constant(40183424.48673306781.656.548.596

population In Irbid36.11670.362.160.513.619

a. Dependent Variable: Building Price Per year In Irbi



Graph

REGRESSION

Excluded Variablesa


Statistics

Tolerance


DEPENDENT Y= Building Price Per m2 In Irbid

DEPENDENT X= population In Irbid

Regression



Removed

Method

1population In Irbid

.Enter

a. Dependent Variable: Building Price Per m2 In Irbid


Model Summary


Estimate

1.153a.024.-074-21.73237




Coefficientsa

ANOVA


1

Regression113.7071113.707.241.634b

Residual4722.95910472.296

Total4836.66711


Coefficients

tSig.

BStd. ErrorBeta

1)Constant(75.80593.677.809.437

population In Irbid4.412E-005.000.153.491.634


Graph

REGRESSION


INDEPENDENT X= density In Irbid.

Regression



Removed

Method




Model Summary


Estimate

1.156a.024.-073-21.72260



Coefficientsa


ANOVAa


1

Regression117.9521117.952.250.628b

Residual4718.71510471.871

Total4836.66711


Coefficients

tSig.

BStd. ErrorBeta

1)Constant(75.15093.250.806.439

density In Irbid.070.141.156.500.628


Graph

REGRESSION




Regression



Removed

Method

1Population In

Irbid.Enter

a. Dependent Variable: Building.Price.Per.m2.In.irbid


Model Summary


Estimate

1.153a.024.-074-21.73237



Coefficientsa


ANOVAa


1

Regression113.7071113.707.241.634b

Residual4722.95910472.296

Total4836.66711


Coefficients

tSig.

BStd. ErrorBeta

1)Constant(75.80593.677.809.437

Population in Irbid4.412E-005.000.153.491.634




Graph

Excluded Variablesa


Statistics

Tolerance


Engineering

Irbid growth using regression modle.2003to2013