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MIC-ElectricalAthens, Greece 4 April 2014
Pavel [email protected]
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Science & Innovation Campus
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Opportunities and Challenges of Digital Economy
1. Digital Economy
2. Internet and ICT
3. Networked Economy
4. Academic publishing
5. Future trends
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Digital Economy
• 101 of macro-economics:• Primary sector
– natural resources• Secondary sector
– industrial revolution• Tertiary sector (after WW2)
– services after• Quaternary sector
– information revolution & knowledge based economy
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Digital Economy: Research
• Problems of simplicity (1600-1800)• understanding influence of one
variable over another• Problems of disorganized
complexity (1900-1950)• number of variables is very large but
system as a whole has well defined average behavior
• Problems of organized complexity (1950-today)
• simultaneously dealing with numberof factors forming whole system
- W. Weaver, 1948
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Digital Economy: Research
• Experimental science (until 1700's)• observations and experiments• Theoretical science (until 1940s)• mathematical analysis• Computational science (until 2000)• computer simulations• Big Data science• data mining and modeling
– 90% of data in past 2 years
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Technology advances
• Everything is becoming:• smarter• faster• smaller (portable)• stores more data• easier to use• nicer looking
• and in spite of this, it is also:• cheaper• and connected
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Applications advances• Apps are becoming smarter:• mobile Clouds• context recognition, learning/predicting/modeling
of habits, trends, life rhythms, behavioral patterns etc.• Social Networking 2.0
• Beyond “lossy” email and online chats:• affective communications
• No more privacy: http://erasingdavid.com/
• shopping cards, Google searchers, social media apps …• street CCTVs with face recognition (San Francisco)
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Evolution of the Internet
• Phase 1 (80's):• connecting computers into global network• Phase 2 (90's):• WWW content creation• Phase 3 (current):• users' own content, upstream-downstream usage balance• from person-to-person
… to person-to-machine … to machine-to-machine
• from independent to cooperative
• Standards and business practices more important than laws and regulations
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Today's Internet
• Interconnection of:• 109 personal computers• 1010 mobile phones• 1011 networked smart things
• New protocols:• to address reliability, security, privacy, transparency and
improve acceptance and trust of new services• e.g. IPv6, HTML5, IPsec, DNSsec
• Traffic volumes:• bandwidth explosion: exa-flows of bytes (exa=1018)• likely to be exponentially (!) increasing for next decade
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Today's Internet
• Wireless everywhere• interconnect devices into a single hub• home and enterprise networks• backhauling still realized by fixed wired infrastructure
• Internet of Things (IoT)• 1 trillion devices (sensors, home appliances, consumer
electronics, smart grids, devices for safety and security, home health, agriculture, government services, supply chains etc.)
• much more than just 2 billion PCs and smart phones today• uncertainty whether full integration and interoperability, or
whether fragmentation by sectors and providers
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Today's Internet
• Cloud computing• e.g. Amazon, Google• grids more powerful than any supercomputer• online storage: significant proportion of Internet traffic• cloud of clouds (cf. network of networks)
• 100's of novel applications and services• social networks (motivation to connect anytime anywhere)• online gaming and entertainment (e.g. IPTv)• virtual worlds (e.g. Second life)• augmented reality (affective computing)• telepresence
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Smart Homes• Idea quite simple:• sense more things• integrate with other systems• make things easier
• Support for specific group• elderly, learning disability,
substance abusers, socially isolated etc.
• Support for specific conditions• chronic illness, stroke recovery etc.
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Digital Economy – consequences?• Broad definition of Digital Economy:• novel and creative use of ICT• new business models
• Email has turned us into 'lab rats' [The Telegraph]• Is the Internet Warping Our Brains? [Internet]
• Hyper-connected world• Time poverty• Dunbar's number: 150
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Current ICT Market• Key drivers:• mobility is everything• cut down on travel cost → Green ICT• improve productivity• off-shoring and outsourcing services (e.g. software development)• move healthcare into homes → m-Health
• Technology already matured (“ICT as a utility”):• almost anything is possible, however, …• what is important? useful? business attractive?• cost effective? likely adopted by users?• what implications to global/local economies?
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Reality Mining• Digital footprint: A LOT of data• passive data collection – we are all Internet users and shoppers• active data collection – sensors
• Data analytics:• making sense of data• modeling and forecasting• great opportunities for ex-Wireless folks
• Sensors:• almost anything possible (wearable, integrated, … )• cheap, available, accurate
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Data Challenges
• Quality: • accuracy and confidence• context &timeliness
• Quantity:• always (will be) issue for storage and transfer• much data redundant but don't know which
• Processing:• from centralized to distributed• sharing data• from structured to unstructured data
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Concepts and Implementations
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Concepts and Implementations – Example• Routing in the Internet:
send packets between PC and Server
• Implementation:• how to distinguish end-nodes?• how to find the route?• how to deal with nodes mobility?• how to share the network among
billions of end-nodes?• how to manage complexity?• how to deal with lost/delayed
packets?• .....
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Networked Economy – Services
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Networked Economy – Products
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Networked Economy – Products
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Networked Economy – Processes
• Distributed intelligence:• Refers to systems in which many individuals with limited
intelligence and information are able to pool resources to accomplish goals far beyond the capabilities of every individual while the individuals only focus on self-interest without the big picture in mind.
• Examples: • building ant colonies• building the Internet• doing research ...
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Networked Economy – Higher Education
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Networked Economy – Research
• Some statistics:• In 1910, the total number of scientists in Physics and
Chemistry in Germany and United Kingdom was about 8,000.• In 1990, there were about 5,000,000 scientists in the world
out which about 1,000,000 in United States.
• Research of (not so distant) past• bright individuals, discoveries• Research of today• Social Capital, teams, circles • reputation, jobs, earnings
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Academic Publishing
• Data filtering problem:• papers are data in their own right• research ≡ data processing?• Big Data problem:• too many papers published?• statistical metrics (citations, IF etc.)• plagiarism has become non-trivial• Computational problem:• knowledge discovery and mining• Sector of industry:• its own economics
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Academic Publishing – Issues
• On Impact Factor:“The misuse of the journal impact factor is highly destructive, inviting a gaming of the metric that can bias journals against publishing important papers in fields. … But perhaps the most destructive result of any automated scoring of a researcher's quality is the "me-too science" that it encourages.”
- Bruce Alberts, San Francisco Declaration on Research Assessment
• On Peer-Reviewing:• “ … which academic articles get published in the more
prestigious journals is a pretty random process.”- L. Bornmann et al., PLoS ONE (2010)
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Academic Publishing – Future
• Automation of (tedious) processes:• knowledge discovery
(a.k.a. literature search)• hypothesis testing, data validation• standardized reporting and storage
of research outcomes
• Collaborative large-scale platforms• “publications” with 100's of co-authors• online conferences• journals replaced with sophisticated
Data structures with dynamic update of contents
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Academic Publishing – Future
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Research – Future
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Summary
• Digital-Networked Economy:• socio-economic as well as
technical drivers• profound changes in society
– hyper-connectivity
• Distributing and pooling resources:• unlimited source of innovation
• Research and publishing:• current practices unsustainable• new processes likely to be introduced in near future
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Thank you!
Questions?
