Understand the Aggregated Demand of the Operator Network For Major Systems and Components

This is a “Small Data” Approach to Determine Component and System Failure Rates

DigitalClone® Live for Suppliers

To Determine The Earliest Possible Time That Failures Occur in Your Drivetrain


This Means You Now Have Much More Information on Asset Life, Life Extension, Financial Impact

Earliest Failure Reporting and Actions18 month Rolling


O&M Forecasting

Known Component Failure

CBMOptimization

Accurate Financial Planning

RiskManagement

Sentient Science FamilyWorlds Most

Tested ProductsProducts with the

Lowest Cost of Operation


Introducing Sentient ScienceApplying Material Science & Computational Testing to Determine Component & System Failure Rates

2001-2016 2010 2014 April 2016 April 2016


1. DigitalClone®

• Materials-Based Computational Testing (SaaS)

2. DigitalClone® Live for Operators• For Operational Management (Visibility 1)• For Asset Management (Visibility 2)• For Risk Management (Visibility 3)

3. DigitalClone® Live for Suppliers• Interface Suppliers with Operators


Sentient Products

DigitalClone® & DigitalClone® Live


DigitalClone® Component

What We Know

• We know the major design variables effecting component performance

• We know how to optimize the design variables to increase performance

Planetary Bearing – TEST NAME 003


PLANETARY BEARING

What We Know

• We know how to compare competing designs


PLANETARY BEARING

DigitalClone® Component

DigitalClone® Live for Operators

Site 1

Site 2

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Site 5

Site 6

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Site 8

Fleet 1


Individual Site Worst to Best Ranking

Site 1

Site 2

Fleet 1


DigitalClone® Live for Operators


Sentient Provides Operators with Forecasts for Component Replacement over 4 years


Customer XXXXTurbine GE 1.5

Total Units 2748Year IM/HS Replacements Planetary Replacements % of Replacements2016 60 24 3.12017 75 30 3.82018 85 34 4.32019 98 39.2 5.0Total 318 127.2 16.2

Turbine GE 1.5

Total Units 2748Year GBX Replacements % of GBX Failures

2016 100 3.6

2017 110 4.0

2018 115 4.2

2019 121 4.4

Total 446

This is What We’re Looking to Buy From the Supplier Community

Business Problem1. Extensive validation and faster certification of

Drivetrain design before testing, production and installation

2. Identify any issues and rectify to make sure the drivetrain meets 25 years design life

Sentient Science Solution1. Conducted comprehensive drivetrain validation in which

thousands of main bearing and gearbox validation test points are computationally created for a fraction of the cost of physical testing.

2. Allowed massive amounts of testing points and insights to be evaluated before physical testing begins.

Supplier #1: What is the business challenge?Validate the Drivetrain for Next Generation 8MW Turbine


GE 1.5 SLE Life PredictionEffect of Bearing Supplier on Gearbox Life (MTOD)

Primary Component Risk:1. Low Speed Inter. Shaft (LSIS)

bearing2. High speed shaft (HSS)

bearing3. Planetary gear bearing4. High Speed Inter. Shaft (HSIS)

bearing

Secondary Component Risk:1. Low Speed Shaft and Inter. Gear2. High Speed Shaft (HSS) Pinion and

Inter. Speed Shaft3. Planetary Gear/Sun Gear4. Ring Gear

*Sample Legend C=Fully Characterized A=Material AssumptionsE=Mechanical Assumptions

Misalignment and bearing pitting / spalling then causes…

Component Supplier Model Sample* L63 Life [MTOD]

PGC-BRG2

INA SL 185044 C 11.0 yrs.SKF 185044 SL C3 2SBR A,E > 20 yrs.

Timken Timken WE-1180-A A,E > 20 yrs.

LSIS-BRG1 INA F 555087.01 C 4.1 yrs.LSIS-BRG2 INA F 555086.01 C 8.1 yrs.

HSIS-BRG1

FAG NU 2236 E.MP1A.C3.J30PCM X-life

C > 20 yrs.

SKF NU 2236 EM/C3 UIU303

A,E > 20 yrs.

HSIS-BRG2FAG NU 2334 C > 20 yrs.

SKF NU 2334-ECML A,E 12.2 yrs.

HSS-BRG1

FAG NU 2326 E.M1 A,E > 20 yrs.

SKF NU 2326 A,E > 20 yrs.

NSK NU 2326 E C > 20 yrs.

HSS-BRG2

FAG NU 232 E-M1-C3_X- LIFE_171YD

C > 20 yrs.

SKF NU 232 EC Explorer C > 20 yrs.

NSK NU 232 EM/C3 U1U303

C 4.7 yrs.

Timken NNCF 5044 2MEW- 1243-A

C > 20 yrs.


Business Problem1. Premature field failures due significant amount of pitting in angular

contact ball bearing.

2. Bearing qualification tests are expensive and time consuming.

Sentient Science Solution1. Designed and predicted Super Bearing configuration to meet design

requirements2. OEM selected Super Bearing for testing and implementation

Supplier #2: What is the business challenge?Improve Aircraft Actuator Pump Cam Life to Meet Operational Requirements


Business Problem1. Need for advanced gear materials to meet new

engine requirements.

2. It is expensive and time consuming to evaluate drives systems gearbox performance and life accurately

Sentient Science Solution1. 1000x more virtual test points for rotorcraft gears at

reduced time and cost over physical test

2. Combining statistically significant virtual test points with limited physical test data provides accurate fatigue life estimates and allowable stress/loads

3. Simulate the affect on gearbox life from:1. Overload/over torque conditions2. Manufacturing Process3. Lubrication4. Residual stress5. Surface finish

Supplier #3: What is the business challenge?Accurate Prediction of Rotorcraft Drives System Gearbox Fatigue Life & Allowable

Stress at Reduced Cost & Time



1. What is the Aggregate Demand across Operators?• What is the gearbox replacement plan over the network – where, when,

for who• What is the uptower component replacement plan over the network• What bearing sets are failing over the network• What components are over and under performing for design and cost

optimization

2. What are the Gearbox Failure rates?

3. What is the Strategy?• Drivetrain demand vs supply by geography and account• Site optimization (Operator)• Inventory optimization (Supplier)


DigitalClone Live Network

Competing Better With Operators In MindCreating a Supplier Network that responds to key performance metrics

(KPI) of the End User

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02012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

1. Encourage maximum parts reuse2. Align incentives of the Operator up the value chain to encourage reliability3. Encourage geographic distribution across the fleet

Compete With the Operator in Mind.

Maximizing The Reusable Gearbox Components

The Core Life

The Uptower Replacement

The High Load Components Begin


Causing Secondary Damage

Why Should Suppliers Care?


1. The amount operators are willing to pay for products and services is directly tied to operating days/weeks/months/years gained

2. If the non-repairable section of the gearbox will only last another 12 months regardless of your upgrade, then no need to price an upgrade that lasts 3 years

3. For the first time, Sentient Science is equipping operators and suppliers with the data to transact on life and life extension

The Big Question:

Will the Wind Industry follow Aerospace, Military, Rail, … to link the supply chain with ther performance of the asset?

“Power By the Megawatt Hour”

Introducing DigitalClone® Live for Suppliers

Filters

Opportunities

Location

Immediate Need

Long Term Need

Names & Detail

Revenue Projections














Supplier: Find the Opportunities That Match My Service Offering

Uptower Service Offering for GE 1.5 SLE: Moventas, Winergy and Bosch (ZF) gearboxes are serviced Uptower: HSS and IS Bearings (HSS_BRG, IS_BRG) Uptower: HSS and IS Assembly


Find Sales Opportunities for Your Offering

• Sentient has recommended 56 Uptower Replacements on the GE 1.5 SLE for HSS_BRG, IS_BRG

• Based on material-science prognostics, all of the components are within the optimal timing window for service.


Analyze the Individual Opportunities

• Prospective Customer Name• Type of Opportunity (Uptower Repair or Gearbox Replacement)• Location of Opportunity• Turbine and Gearbox Technology• Most Severely Damaged Component Manufacturer and Model• Number of Components Expected to be Damaged• Current Months Past Crack Initiation (t – 6.0 months)• Estimated Life Extension in Months• Date the Repair was First Required


Download the Opportunities List


Transactions Between Suppliers and Operators

or SuppliersDigitalClone® Live f

Supplier Submits an Initial Offer


Supplier Bundles Tasks for Initial Proposal


1. For Lead Generation - Suppliers have a prioritized lead list from DigitalClone Live of assets, components, lubricants etc.. that are needed to extend the life of operator assets– to match supply with demand and– to lower supplier cost of sales

2. To “Buy on Life” - Suppliers have a trusted 3rd party in Sentient Science to advocate their life claims within the context of the customers’ gearbox

3. For Sales Forecasting - Suppliers can investigate longer term opportunities knowing current market share, and what, when and how failures will occur (18 mo window)


DigitalClone Live for Suppliers

Supplier & Operator Communication Flow

SUPPLIER OPERATOR

1Supplier submits offer to anatomized operator

2Operator agrees to receive offer

and reveals information to Supplier

3Supplier & Operator

can now negotiate a deal


Extending DigitalClone® Live to Suppliers

Owner/Operators with DCL services and “Buy-On-

Life” interface


DCL SaaS/PaaS with customer branded interface for supplier

interaction

Suppliers of GBX systems, components, lubrications and services that want access to

the owner/operator

GlobalData estimates that around 16,277 gearbox units were refurbished in 2013 worldwide. The number of unit refurbishments is expected to amount to 27,483 in 2020, equivalent to growth at a CAGR of 7.8% in the forecast period.

The value of the global wind turbine gearbox market is expected to reach $7 billion by 2020, equivalent to growth at a CAGR of 7.8% between 2013 and 2020.

Engineering

Understand the Aggregated Demand of the Operator Network For Major Systems and Components