PowerPoint Presentation

ABOUT TURN: CANADA AND CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY

Hear about the history of Canadas efforts to address this crucial global problem of climate change and explore the challenges ahead. Canada is struggling to balance an economy highly dependent on natural resources with the increasingly urgent need to take action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Dr. Rosal1

Who am I?Rosalind Warner, PhDCollege Professor of Political ScienceOkanagan CollegeEmail: rowarner@okanagan.bc.caTwitter: @rwarner23Blog: http://rozwarner.wordpress.com/

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OverviewThe Big Picture: Good News Bad NewsPast PoliciesWhat is the current policy?Where does Canada fit in the World?What is to be Done?

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Good News Bad News

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Good NewsChina is advancing on its2030 goals, showing more than 40 percent progress toward its emissions intensity, forest stock volume, and clean energy goals, despite being only a quarter of the way through the implementation period.

http://www.wri.org/blog/2017/03/china-making-progress-climate-goals-faster-expectedThe country is also advancing on its2030 goals, showing more than 40 percent progress toward its emissions intensity, forest stock volume, and clean energy goals, despite being only a quarter of the way through the implementation period.5

Good News

Benefits of 100% renewable Canada

Carbon capture and storage(CCS) thenascent technologywhich aims to bury CO2 underground is deemed extremely important by the IPPC. It estimates that the cost of the big emissions cuts required would more than double without CCS. Pachauri said: With CCS it is entirely possible for fossil fuels to continue to be used on a large scale. https://getpocket.com/a/read/754846435

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Bad News (Global Carbon Project)

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Bad News

~Will Steffen, Anthropocene Review, January 2017

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Bad News

CC is definitely human-caused

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Bad News

Ed HawkinsClimate scientist in the National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS) at the University of Reading. IPCC AR5 Contributing Author. @ed_hawkins Sea ice tipping point

But whats so remarkable about tSystems with amplifying feedbacks tend to have tipping points beyond which change is irreversible.

his year is that the ongoing drop in Arctic sea ice has been matched by an unexpectedly sharp drop in Antarctic sea ice.10

Temperature and CO2 in lock step

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Past Policies

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The Harper years2006-2015

During his tenure, Harper made no attempts to regulate carbon pollution through cap-and-trade or a carbon tax. He muzzled scientists, cut research funding, targeted environmental groups, and secretly committed government money to advocating for the export of tar sands oil. To environmentalists, Harper was a villain. Climate Action Network Europe ranked Canada among Russia, Iran, and Saudi Arabia in its2015 Climate Change Performance Index, a rating of countries climate policies.On the international stage, Harper didnt fare much better. In 2011, Canada became the first signatory of the Kyoto Protocol to formally withdraw from the agreement, pulling out after it became clear it would not meet its carbon-cutting targets. In the lead-up to the Paris Climate Agreement, Canada pledged to limit carbon pollution, but it committed to emissions reductions that were markedlyless ambitiousthan those of the United States or the European Union.Canada pays $14b in penalties for its withdrawal2012-commits $8m in financing to investigate environmental groups political activities, allocated $30m to advocate for the tar sandshttps://thinkprogress.org/a-brief-history-of-canadas-stunning-about-face-on-climate-change-4e7bd921077f#.pv33on2su

In Canada (58th) nothing has changed and nothing is going forward at state level. Canada is about to miss its 2020 emissions reduction target by about 20% and the only effective policies in place are provincial initiatives. https://germanwatch.org/en/download/10407.pdf

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Provincial progress2008 BC Carbon Tax $30/tonneOntario & Quebec began an emission trading scheme with CaliforniaAlberta passed a carbon tax and set a cap on carbon pollution from oil sands

Where Canada has made progress on climate change, it has largely happened at the provincial level. In 2008, British Columbia instated acarbon tax. Last year, Ontario and Quebec beganemissions tradingwith California. And, more recently, historically conservative Alberta passed a carbon tax and set acap on carbon pollutionfrom oil sands.

As a candidate, Justin Trudeaupromisedto end subsidies for fossil fuel companies and invest in clean energy technology. As Prime Minister, he attended the Paris climate negotiations and, more recently, he proposed a federalminimum carbon priceas part of a national climate change plan.https://thinkprogress.org/a-brief-history-of-canadas-stunning-about-face-on-climate-change-4e7bd921077f#.7mkxmze3e18

2008-2013: reduced fossil fuel consumption nearly 19%

Sustainable Prosperity has released a report that shows since the carbon tax shift was introduced in 2008, B.C.'s consumption of fossil fuels has been reduced nearly 19 per cent per capita compared to the rest of Canada, while the province's gross domestic product has kept pace with the country's.19

What is the Current Policy?

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Canada is backTrudeaus policies

As a candidate, Justin Trudeaupromisedto end subsidies for fossil fuel companies and invest in clean energy technology.

As Prime Minister, he attended the Paris climate negotiations and, more recently, he proposed a federalminimum carbon priceas part of a national climate change plan.

As a candidate, Justin Trudeaupromisedto end subsidies for fossil fuel companies and invest in clean energy technology. As Prime Minister, he attended the Paris climate negotiations and, more recently, he proposed a federalminimum carbon priceas part of a national climate change plan.November 2015 unmuzzled scientists, announced plans to develop a national framework on carbonAnnouncement at December Paris climate summit where a major new agreement forged at the international level.Expands environmental reviews for pipelinesFebruary 2016- announces national carbon pricing baseline$75m for cities and $50m for green buildings

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Trudeaus planNovember 2015 unmuzzled scientists, announced plans to develop a national framework on carbonExpands environmental reviews for pipelinesFebruary 2016- announces national carbon pricing baseline$75m for cities and $50m for green buildings

Paris commitments insufficient: 3 degrees warmingProvinces and federal govt begin a process Vancouver Declaration March 2016Federal govt target: Carbon pricing of $50/tonne by 2022

Zero to Hero? Follow-up to Paris Agreement

No new targets.One of the key outcomes ofthe Paris Agreement is that countries havepledged emissions reduction targets that are not sufficient to meet the ambition of the agreement. That is, they put us on a path to a catastrophic 3 degree warmer world, not the longstanding 2 degree maximum, much less the stronger Paris goalof 1.5 degrees. Yet, Canadas official GHG target is still the same as it was under PM Harper, a 30% reduction by 2030 below 2005 levels.See you in six months.The first ministers did not come up with any early actions to announce, which is surprising given the low-hanging fruit after a decade of neglect under PM Harper. The Declaration creates four working groups to noodle over details, with ministers to make a decision in October. They are:clean technology, innovation and jobs; carbon pricing mechanisms; specific mitigation opportunities; and adaptation and climate resilience.Keep an eye on the federal budget.The finalcommuniquehighlights federal investments in green infrastructure, public transit and energy-efficient social infrastructure (building retrofits, perhaps?), which is consistent with promises made in the Liberal election platform. Heading to budget day the big question will be how large are those investments, and what they look like.Would you like pipelines with that?The day before the first ministers meeting, the PM used his speech at the Globe conference to tell us we can have it all, windmills and pipelines. But if we take the Paris Agreement and its 1.5 degrees target seriously, the science tells us we need to keep mostof the worlds fossil fuel reserves underground. In Canada, as a high cost producer, that could represent90% of our proven reserves. This all of the above strategy also bumps up againstthe PMs commitment to recognize indigenousrights and title, yet the communique only commits to engage First Nations.No agreement on carbon pricing.Carbon pricing is viewed as central to any serious mitigation plan, both in terms of making it more expensive topollute over time, but also as a revenue source to pay for all of this green infrastructure weve been promised, and that we will need to break our carbon habit. In spite of carbon pricing efforts in all the major provinces, the protests of Saskatchewan premier Brad Wall appear to have won the day. Aworking group specifically to discuss pan-Canadian carbon pricing adapted to each provinces and territorys specific circumstances will have its work cut out for it.Overall, this shows a key failure in the federal governments strategy of coordinating provincial carbon pricing efforts, rather than embarking on its own national carbon pricing strategy. Carbon pricing is not as hard as some are making it out to be:weve had fuel taxes for decades, we just dont call themcarbon taxes. Even in BC, each of federal and provincial fuel taxes are larger than thefamedcarbon tax.In post-meetingremarks, BC Premier Christy Clark made a bid forrevenue neutrality of a carbon tax, based on the BC model. Yet, the idea that carbon pricing can only be achieved if accompanied by tax cuts is silly, and does not square with public opinion. Nor is it consistent with existing federal practice, which is to use fuel tax revenues to pay for infrastructure, much of it delegated to municipalities through the Build Canada Fund.

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Which is like me saying, I need to build up my strength to go on a diet by eating a lot of ice cream. These things are not consistent and theres no way to make them consistent.Professor Kathryn Harrison

Agreement targets and that Canada is still committed to a carbon price increasing to $50 by 2022, Having evidence-based policymaking will be particularly important. When British Columbia introduced a $30 carbon price, many claimed the B.C. economy would be decimated.

Mr. Trudeau has said we need to build pipelines in order to afford to get ourselves to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions. Which is like me saying, I need to build up my strength to go on a diet by eating a lot of ice cream. These things are not consistent and theres no way to make them consistent.

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Speaking of targetsLets talk about targetsHarper govt weakened ghg emissions targets set from Kyoto in 1997, which were 6% below 1990 levels2006: reset the baseline year from 1990 to 2005Copenhagen 2009: Set target to reduce 20% below 2005 levels by 20202012: further reduced target to 17% below 2005 levels by 2030

https://thinkprogress.org/a-brief-history-of-canadas-stunning-about-face-on-climate-change-4e7bd921077f#.pv33on2su25

Lets talk about targets

Climate pollution. Success = 12.6 tonnes per Canadian

30% below 2005 levels (Canadas Paris agreement targets)

My first graphic shows the average climate pollution per Canadian. Each tonne is represented by a numbered black box.Today we average 20.7 tCO2.To meet our climate commitment, we need to get down to 12.6 tCO2 by 2030.That is eight tonnes less per person in fifteen years. For comparison, we cut 2.8 tonnes per person over the previous fifteen years. So clearly we will have to work a lot harder this round.As the Globe and Mail pointed out in theirPopulation in 2030 projected to be around 41.5 million in StatCan middle growth caseCanadas 2030 climate target is 30% below 2005 levels which our NIR says is 749 MtCO2: 749 * 70% = 524 MtCO2Canadas per-capita 2030 climate target: 524 MtCO2 / 41.5m = 12.6 tCO2 per capitahttp://www.nationalobserver.com/2016/03/02/analysis/visualizing-canadas-2030-climate-target-show-me-money

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Zero to Hero? Follow-up to Paris Agreement

https://news.vice.com/article/canada-admits-theres-no-chance-itll-reach-its-climate-change-targets-not-even-close?utm_source=vicenewstwitter

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Where Does Canada Fit in the World?

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In the 1990 base year, developed nations including the United States accounted for two-thirds of global emissions. Now, their contribution has dropped below 50%.Global targets

Worldwide emissions have surged by 50% since 1990, driven by economic growth in China and other parts of Asia, South America and Africa (seeBefore and after). In the 1990 base year, developed nations including the United States accounted for two-thirds of global emissions. Now, their contribution has dropped below 50%.29

Canada and the Carbon Bubble

ExxonMobil recently announcedthat it no longer considers 20%, or 4.5bn barrels, of its proved oil reserves to be extractable.

The write-down could be the largest single company revision in the history of the industry.

Even majors such as ExxonMobil are not immune the companyrecently announcedthat it no longer considers 20%, or 4.5bn barrels, of its proved oil reserves to be extractable. This reduction applies mostly to the companys oil sands deposits in Canada, which are expensive to extract and use, and therefore particularly sensitive to dips in oil prices. The write-down could be the largest single company revision in the history of the industry.http://www.wri.org/blog/2017/02/fossil-fuels-whats-risk

To realize this goal, anestimated one-third of all oil reserves, half of all gas reserves and over 80 percent of current coal reserves need to remain unused through 2050. If fossil fuel companies are required to leave a significant bulk of their reserves untapped, their valuations could decline steeply that is, unless these companies preemptively adjust their businesses strategies to avoid these risks, for example by diversifying holdings to include more low or zero carbon energy sources like wind, solar and geothermal.

For one thing, she said, building giant new bitumen or natural gas pipelines today will commit Canada to fossil fuels for 50, 70, or even 100 years into the future -- a problem she called "infrastructure lock-in" -- when the world has only about 30 years to decarbonize 80 per cent of the global economy if we wish to avoid two degrees of planetary warming and "trillions of dollars" in economic damages.30

G20 is approaching a carbon pricing scheme

13% of total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the G20 are covered by some kind of carbon pricing scheme.

Mexico has implemented a carbon tax and Russia is seriously considering an emissions trading system

Thirteen per cent of total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the G20 are covered by some kind of carbon pricing scheme. China will introduce the worlds largest emissions trading scheme during 2017 and pilot projects in several Chinese provinces are already operational. Including China, 23 per cent of total GHG emissions will soon be subject to carbon-pricing schemes. In addition, Mexico has implemented a carbon tax and Russia is seriously considering an emissions trading system, proving that these initiatives are not restricted to the G7 countries and China.http://www.themarknews.com/2017/02/23/a-willing-coalition/Marck Carney, Governor of the Bank of England and Canadian, is at the forefront, chair of the G20 Financial Stability Board, has indicated that fossil fuel assets and high-carbon infrastructure will be devalued if we take the Paris Agreement seriously.

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Canada and the Carbon Bubble

Infrastructure lock-in

Naome Oreskeshttps://thetyee.ca/News/2016/04/06/Canada-Oil-Gas-Push-Wishful-Thinking/?utm_source=mdotsiteFor one thing, she said, building giant new bitumen or natural gas pipelines today will commit Canada to fossil fuels for 50, 70, or even 100 years into the future -- a problem she called "infrastructure lock-in" -- when the world has only about 30 years to decarbonize 80 per cent of the global economy if we wish to avoid two degrees of planetary warming and "trillions of dollars" in economic damages.

Of 928 peer-reviewed studies she examined, not one disagreed with the consensus that mankind is heating the planet with the release of greenhouse gases. Other investigators confirmed her finding, producing the now familiar statistic that 98 per cent of climate scientists accept the fact of anthropogenic global warming.32

By 2100, 75 percent of the ice area and 70 percent of the ice volume of Coastal mountain glaciers will have been lost

The Interior and Rocky mountain glaciers meanwhile will essentially have disappeared, losing 90 percent of their ice area and volume.

The researchers hinted at how glacier melt might affect hydro power in the province, reminding readers that the Columbia River, which flows from its headwaters in the interior of BC out to the Washington and Oregon coast, delivers the largest hydroelectric production of any river in North America. In 1964, Canada and the US signed a treaty sharing the hydroelectric spoils of the Columbia between them, a treaty that is up for renegotiation in 2024.

First the good news from their modelling. On the supply side, the likely increase in streamflow from melting glaciers is significant, delivering an increase in the provinces potential annual hydropower of 11 percent. Meanwhile on the demand side, the reductions in heating as a result of warmer temperatures drown out the modest increases in cooling in the summer, delivering a reduction in average and peak demand of two percent. Together, this translates to an increase of roughly 11 terawatt hours of available energy by 2050. That is, climate change will give BC much more energy supply that we can tap into.

The Mica and Peace dams, the main sources of our hydropower in BC, dont depend upon glacier run-off, but from snowmelt and rainfall.33

What is to be Done?

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Plan B

https://ourworld.unu.edu/en/geoengineering-is-not-a-solution-to-climate-change

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100% Clean Energy in Canada58% wind,22% solar,16% hydro, 2%wave and 2%geothermal.

In the days before the first ministers meeting, Mark Jacobsons team from Stanford Universityshowedwhat clean energy in Canadamight look like:58% wind,22% solar,16% hydro, 2%wave and 2%geothermal. CCPA has done a lot ofresearchon these issues, and I offered up a12 point planfor getting serious about climate action. There are lots of great case studies in Canada t

http://behindthenumbers.ca/2016/03/04/from-paris-to-vancouver-what-happened-at-the-first-ministers-meeting-on-climate/

o draw on, and we should go and steal the best ideas from around the world.

http://behindthenumbers.ca/2015/11/23/so-you-want-to-get-serious-about-climate-change/36

National Carbon Taxstarting at $40 per tonne and increasing $20 per year towards $200/tonne.

If half of carbon tax revenues were used for climate action, this would raise $10 billion in year one in support of commitments to ambitious new transit, social and green infrastructure. This is also your economic stimulus and jobs plan.

http://behindthenumbers.ca/2015/11/23/so-you-want-to-get-serious-about-climate-change/

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2014: The International Monetary Fund estimates that energy subsidies in Canada top an incredible $34 billion each yearEnd Fossil Fuel Subsidies

The International Monetary Fund estimates that energy subsidies in Canada top an incredible $34 billion each year in direct support to producers and uncollected tax on externalized costs.https://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2014/05/15/Canadas-34-Billion-Fossil-Fuel-Subsidies/38

73% could not name one BC climate policyConclusion: Public knowledge not neededBUTWhen asked their opinion, more favoured regulation to a carbon tax

http://www.vancouverobserver.com/news/public-relatively-uninformed-about-climate-policies-and-maybe-s-okay-sfu-study

In fact, the study byEkaterina Rhodes,Jonn Axsen, andMark Jaccardin SFUsSchool of Resource and Environmental Managementfinds that increased awareness of climate science and climate policy does not necessarily lead to higher support among Canadian citizens.

Most respondents (73 per cent) could not name one B.C. policy. Of th

The next research step was to educate survey respondents about the slate of policies that have been implemented in B.C. Follow-up questions revealed that the majority of respondents preferred regulations (such as B.C.s clean electricity policy) to pro-market policies (such as B.C.s carbon tax).e quarter that could name one, the majority identified the carbon tax.

e study also hints that other strategies may be helpful in inspiring citizens interest in and support of climate policy-making. These include cultivating public trust in government, industry and non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and creating arms-length regulatory agencies that have a sustainability policy mandate, as exists in California for example with the California Air Resources Board.39

When speaking with people

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OverviewThe Big Picture: Good News Bad NewsPast PoliciesWhat is the current policy?Where does Canada fit in the World?What is to be Done?

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Thank you for listening!Questions?

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Bibliography Carrington, D. (2014). IPCC: rapid carbon emission cuts vital to stop severe impact of climate change | Environment | The Guardian. Retrieved March 19, 2017, from https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/nov/02/rapid-carbon-emission-cuts-severe-impact-climate-change-ipcc-reportDeaton, J., & Lee, M. (March 9 2016). A Brief History Of Canadas Stunning About-Face on Climate Change. https://thinkprogress.org/a-brief-history-of-canadas-stunning-about-face-on-climate-change-4e7bd921077f#.qgp6weoutGaffney, O., & Steffen, W. (2017). The Anthropocene equation. The Anthropocene Review, 205301961668802. http://doi.org/10.1177/2053019616688022Green, F., & Stern, N. (2016). Chinas changing economy: implications for its carbon dioxide emissions. Climate Policy, 115. http://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2016.1156515http://www.wri.org/blog/2017/03/china-making-progress-climate-goals-faster-expectedClimate Change: Climate Resource Center - Graphic: The relentless rise of carbon dioxide. (March 16 2017). https://climate.nasa.gov/climate_resources/24/Cust, J., Manley, D., & Cecchinato, G. (2017). Unburnable Wealth of NationsMarch 2017. Finance and Development, 54(1). http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2017/03/cust.htmHamilton, C. (March 25 2015). Geoengineering Is Not a Solution to Climate Change - Our World. https://ourworld.unu.edu/en/geoengineering-is-not-a-solution-to-climate-changeKnopf, B. (Feb 23 2017). A Willing Coalition The Mark News. http://www.themarknews.com/2017/02/23/a-willing-coalition/Lee, M. (March 4 2016). From Paris to Vancouver: What happened at the First Ministers meeting on climate Behind the Numbers. http://behindthenumbers.ca/2016/03/04/from-paris-to-vancouver-what-happened-at-the-first-ministers-meeting-on-climate/

Canada's Oil and Gas Push 'Wishful Thinking' against Climate Realities: Harvard ProfNaomi Oreskes says our fossil fuel strategy 'doesn't add up.'

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Bibliography MSLJ, & Team, D. (nov 17 2016). Global warming: The state of the climate in 2016 The Economist. http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2016/11/global-warmingWhen the glaciers go: Hydroelectric vulnerability and climate change The Climate Examiner by PICS - The Climate Examiner. (2016). http://theclimateexaminer.ca/2016/04/21/when-the-glaciers-go-hydroelectric-vulnerability-and-climate-change/Prystupa,Mychaylo Canada's Oil and Gas Push 'Wishful Thinking' against Climate Realities: Harvard ProfNaomi Oreskes says our fossil fuel strategy 'doesn't add up. The Tyee (April 6 2016) https://thetyee.ca/News/2016/04/06/Canada-Oil-Gas-Push-Wishful-Thinking/?utm_source=mdotsiteRoston, Eric and Blackie Migliozzi (June 24 2015) Whats Really Warming the World? Climate deniers blame natural factors; NASA data proves otherwise. https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-whats-warming-the-world/Public relatively uninformed about climate policiesand maybe thats okay: SFU study Vancouver Observer. (Sept 24 2014). Retrieved March 19, 2017, from http://www.vancouverobserver.com/news/public-relatively-uninformed-about-climate-policies-and-maybe-s-okay-sfu-studyTertzakian, P. (Jan 14 2015). Market death a first step on the path to a truce in the oil price war The Globe and Mail. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/market-death-a-first-step-on-the-path-to-an-oil-price-war-truce/article22437159/Turner, A. J., Jacob, D. J., Benmergui, J., Wofsy, S. C., Maasakkers, J. D., Butz, A., Biraud, S. C. (2016). A large increase in U.S. methane emissions over the past decade inferred from satellite data and surface observations. Geophysical Research Letters, 43(5), 22182224. http://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL067987

Canada's Oil and Gas Push 'Wishful Thinking' against Climate Realities: Harvard ProfNaomi Oreskes says our fossil fuel strategy 'doesn't add up.'

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