H O W C O M M U N I T I E S U S E C L E A N E N E R G Y T O B U I L D L O C A L P O W E R

A D VA N C I N G E N E R G Y D E M O C R A C Y

John Farrell Director of Energy DemocracyOctober 20, 2017

Presentation to the AERO Annual Meeting

L E T ’ S W A R M U P

W I N D P O W E R P O T E N T I A L ?Percentage of state electricity sales

A. 25% B. 75% C. 154% D. 12,000% E. 27,000%

W I N D P O W E R P O T E N T I A L ?Percentage of state electricity sales

E. 27,000%

W I N D P O W E R P O T E N T I A LPercentage of state electricity sales

W I N D P O W E R P O T E N T I A L

30% c.f. or better

2 0 1 0 N R E L D ATA

100m

Potential Percent of Electricity from

Onshore Wind Power0 to 10%

10 to 25%

25 to 50%

50 to 100%

100% or moreSource: http://1.usa.gov/1LBmAIV

“You have a unique opportunity to buy wind that is cheaper than fossil fuel” —Xcel CEO Ben Fowke

L E T ’ S W A R M U P ( # 2 )

R O O F T O P S O L A R P O T E N T I A L ?

A. 2% B. 8% C. 28% D. 59% E.112%

Percentage of state electricity sales

R O O F T O P S O L A R P O T E N T I A L

A. 2% B. 8% C. 28% D. 59% E. 112%

Percentage of state electricity sales

23%

49%

All buildings Source: http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy16osti/65298.pdf

R O O F T O P S O L A R P O T E N T I A L 2 0 1 6

POTENTIAL PERCENT OF POWER FROM LOCAL

ROOFTOP SOLAROver 50% 40 to 50% 25 to 40% 11 to 25%

2008 data

40-50%25-40%

Over 50%

Over 50%

25-40%

Co

st o

f ele

ctric

ity

0.0¢

2.0¢

4.0¢

6.0¢

8.0¢

10.0¢

12.0¢

14.0¢

Residential ≤10 10-20 20-50 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-1000 5-10 MW 10 to 20 MW

20 to 100 MW

100 to 1,000 MW

S O L A R C O M P E T E S AT M O S T S I Z E S

kilowatts megawatts

Sources: Tracking the Sun IX and Utility-Scale Solar 2015 (SunShot, Berkeley Labs); EIA (2014 data); CPUC (2011); NYMEX (2016); ILSR

DOES NOT INCLUDE COST OF DELIVERY

Residential retail price

Commercial retail price

Industrial retail price Calif. Market Price Referent

Price of competition

Price advantage

Estimated levelized cost of electricity based on reported 2015 costs*

F R O M E N E R G Y M O N O P O LY T O E N E R G Y D E M O C R A C Y

Before

After

S T O R Y: C O M M U N I T Y S O L A R I N K E E N E , N H

0¢

5¢

10¢

15¢

20¢

Lease A Lease B PPA*0¢

5¢

10¢

15¢

20¢

SOLAR COSTS MORE FOR NON-TAXABLE ORGANIZATIONS

Incentives do not apply

to tax-exempt entities

Depreciation only Tax credit only

Tax credit and

depreciation

Transaction costs

Tax credit and

depreciation

Transaction costs

Transaction costs

15.5¢

14.1¢ 13.7¢12.3¢

11.2¢

Federal tax credit = 30% off Depreciation = ~24% off *PPA not legal in 25 states

Solar cost per kilowatt-hour

Purchase via third partyNon-profitFor-profit or

individual

H I G H F E D E R A L C O M P L I A N C E C O S T S

59%

Annual compliance costs as a percent of project upfront cost, 25 kW solar project

L I M I T S T O S H A R I N G

Prohibited in 34 states

C O M M U N I T Y R E N E W A B L E E N E R G Y P R O J E C T S L A W

W E N E E D T O G E T R E A D Y

S O L A R G R O W T H D E S T R O Y S F O R E C A S T S

Source: https://twitter.com/aukehoekstra/status/866313289306963969

1 I N S TA L L E V E R Y 6 0

S E C O N D S

Solar PV could provide fully half of global electricity by 2050

Source: http://bit.ly/2f6Anfk

S O L A R G R O W T H D E S T R O Y S F O R E C A S T S

Source: http://bit.ly/2gKCKVc

W I N D P R I C E C O U L D FA L L B Y H A L F

Gas, fuel only

Source: http://bit.ly/2f6Anfk

B AT T E R I E S A R E G E T T I N G C H E A P

B AT T E R I E S A R E G E T T I N G C H E A P

Actual

C H A N G E J U M P S B O U N D A R I E S

D O U B L E T H E R A N G E , S A M E P R I C E

E L E C T R I C V E H I C L E O W N E R S H I P 1 0 - Y E A R S AV I N G S

$0

$3,000

$6,000

$9,000

$12,000

$15,000

2017 Nissan Leaf v. Nissan Versa

10-year sched. maintenance savings

10-year fuel cost savings (est.)Battery replacement cost (est.)

Does not include typical repairs unique to gasoline cars, including

timing belts, water pumps, etc.

I T ’ S C O M I N G F O R Y O U R F U R N A C E …

53% used on-site

S T O R Y: H A W A I I

S O L A R A L O N E S O L A R + E V + B AT T E R Y + S M A R T C O N T R O L S

89% used on-site

B AT T E R I E S G I V E E L E C T R I C C U S T O M E R S C H O I C E

Number of commercial electricity customers who can subscriber to tariffs with demand charges in excess of $15/kW

Source: http://bit.ly/2gK7fdO

W H O W I L L L E A D ?

“We come to work each day to do what we did the day before”

D I S R U P T I O N

Photo credits: Donnie Ray Jones and Billy Brown via Flickr

S M A R T P H O N E I M A G E

Raise your hand if your smartphone was manufactured

by…

…your landline phone company?

“Monopolies don’t

innovate”

O V E R - R U L I N G R E G U L AT O R S

C U T T I N G C O M P E T I T I O N

P O L I T I C A L J I U - J I T S U

S T O R Y: K I T C A R S O N E L E C T R I C C O O P E R AT I V E

U T I L I T Y S H A R E

Municipal (Troy)1%

Cooperative30%

Investor-owned69%

E X P E R I M E N T I N G W I T H C O M M U N I T Y S O L A R

E X P E R I M E N T I N G W I T H C O M M U N I T Y S O L A R

Source: ILSR’s Community Power Map

S T U C K I N L O N G C O N T R A C T S

Great River Energy

Tri-State

Seminole Electric

Basin Electric

Expiration date

0 17 34 51 6820502032 2084

Typical power contract expiration date for members co-ops of…

2066

2045

2050

2055

2070

INCREASING TRANSPARENCY

Source: Northern Plains Resource Council

3 W AY S Y O U C A N L E A D

1

3 0 H O U S E H O L D S

2 1 0 K I L O WAT T S

6 J O B S$ 1 M I L L I O N

2

Commission-approved tariffsExisting programs

Midwest Energy

NH Elec. Co-op

Roanoke Elec. Co-op

How$mart KY

Several co-ops offer inclusive energy financing

Central Elec. PowerOuachita Electric

Clean Energy Works Portland

3

S T O R Y: M I N N E A P O L I S

W R A P U P ! N E T M E T E R I N G S T O R Y

1 9 7 9

S U R P R I S E !

www.ilsr.org

C H A N G I N G T H E R U L E S

P R O V I D I N G T O O L S

1 0 0 % R E N E WA B L E L O C A L E C O N O M Y

H U M A N S C A L E

L O C A L O W N E R S H I P

D E M O C R AT I C A U T H O R I T Y

I L L U S T R AT I N G T H E V I S I O N

BeyondSharing:HowCommunitiesCanTakeOwnershipofRenewablePowerThe electric utility monopoly is breaking up, but will new companies make renewable energy become another form of wealth extraction or can community renewable energy enable communities to capture their renewable power?

John FarrellApril 2016

www.ilsr.org

R E A D O U R R E P O R T S

R E A D M O R E

@johnffarrellF O L L O W