Upload
ipcc-media
View
59
Download
3
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
IPCC Outreach EventRabat, Morocco4-5 May 2015
Dr Cheikh Mbow, Lead authors WG III, Chap 11World Agroforestry Centre-ICRAF, Nairbi, Kenya
AR5 AFOLU mitigation challenges and prospects for Africa
AFOLU (Facts)• Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) is unique among the
sectors in WGIII: Removals of GHGs, Reduction of emissions through management of land and livestock. • Agriculture is central to the livelihoods of many social groups
• AFOLU sector is responsible for ~ < 25% (~10-12 Gt CO2eq/yr) of anthropogenic GHG emissions • Mainly from deforestation and agricultural emissions from livestock, soil,
biomass burning and nutrient management
• 2000-2010• GHG emissions/yr-1: agricultural @ 5.0-5.8 Gt CO2eq/yr • GHG flux/yr-1: land use change activities @ 4.3-5.5 Gt CO2eq/yr
Global Carbon Budget
Global Carbon Project 2013; Le Quéré et al. 2013, ESSD
1959-2013
44%
30%
26%
Energy/transp/build/indust=75%
AFOLU=25%
C-Pools (5)-Ocean: 77%-Fossil: 15%-Soil: 5%-Living: 1.5%-Atmos: 1.5%
Regional patterns of GHG emissions are shifting along with changes in the world economy.
Based on Figure 1.6
Barriers and challenges in AFOLU
• Financing, poverty, institutional, ecological, technological development,
• Feedbacks to adaptation and conservation
• Competition between different land uses‐
• Promoting synergies: integrated systems or multi-functionality, e.g. ecosystem services
DiagnosticsPatterns and Variability
Low CarbonCarbon Manag. & Policy
VulnerabilityProcesses & Feedbacks
● Carbon Budget● Methane Budget+NOx● Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment & Processes● Component Assessments: forests, grasslands
● Carbon pools size & vulnerability (Swamps, methane hydrates, non CO2)
● Socio-economic drivers of emissions
● Future carbon budgets (permissible emissions)
● Negative emissions● Urban development● Energy-carbon-water
Global Carbon Project framework
Land carbon cycle assessment
C-emission C-sequestration C-pools
Forest carbon stock inventory
Carbon accounting and surveys
Ecosystem models and mapping
Dynamic vegetation models
Trees Height, DBH, TCC
Forest/trees Biomass
Biomass change over time
Forest disturbance area
Field & RS
Field,Models&RS
Field & RS
Models & RS
Exploring the data requirements
Data gaps• Independent observed data
• Bottom-up ecosystem inventories of land fluxes, biomass, etc.;
• Satellite based approaches• NPP, GPP, NEP, Fire data and emission from
vegetation burning, Biomass maps; • Modeling
• Atmospheric inversion, biogeochemical models, dynamic vegetation modeling, phenology;
• Secondary data (including activity data) to derive emission databases on emission factors.
What are the challenges for Africa (LDC Box WG III-Chap 11)
• GHG will increase: food production leading to short term land conversion
• Technology will not be sufficient for the necessary transitions to low GHG
• Access to market and credits, capacities to implement mitigation options
• Non-permanence and leakage• Managing Risks, Co-benefits or trade-offs for mitigation (and
adaptation)
AFOLU and Low Emission Development Pathway
• AFOLU: a variety of mitigation options and a large, cost-competitive mitigation potential—flexibility—for mitigation technologies
• Projections: land related mitigation strategies (agriculture, ‐forestry, bioenergy) were projected to contribute 20 to 60% of total cumulative abatement to 2030, and 15 to 45% in 2100.
• RISKS: potential implications for biodiversity, food security and other services (ensuring co-benefits, avoiding land competition)
Managing trade-offs
Adaptation
Mitigation Positive Negative
Positive
Soil carbon sequestration, improved water holding capacities, use of manure instead, mixed agroforestry for commercial products, income diversification with trees, reduced nitrogen fertilizer, fire management
Dependence on biomass energy, overuse of ecosystem services, Increased use of mineral fertilizers Poor management of nitrogen and manure, over extraction of non-timber products, timber extraction
Negative
Integral protection of forest reserves, limited rights to agroforestry trees, Forest Plantation excluding harvest
Use of forest fires for pastoral and land management, tree exclusion in farming lands,
Bundling mitigation and adaptation benefits
Mbow et al, 2014-COSUST