Burning issues: Global and local effects of indonesian haze

Peter Holmgren, Director General, CIFOR16 February, 2016

BURNING ISSUES: GLOBAL AND LOCAL EFFECTS OF INDONESIAN HAZE

OUTLINE

• Fires: Past & Present• Indonesian fires: Hotspots & Media• Causes• Facts and Effects• Toward solutions

CIFOR WAS ESTABLISHED IN 1993- AN INTERNATIONAL ORGANISATION WITH A GLOBAL REACH

CIFOR envisions a more equitable world where forestry and landscapes

enhance the environment and well-being for all

HUMAN RESOURCES

240 staff representing dozens of countries Network of Associates, 77 MOUs with partner orgs

FORESTRY AND THE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS

Fires

past and present

GLOBAL FIRES - JANUARY 2015

GLOBAL FIRES – SEPTEMBER 2015

FIRE MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLES PREVENTION IS MUCH MORE EFFECTIVE THAN SUPPRESSION

• Appropriate use and management of fire will promote sustainable livelihoods

• Human health and security will be improved by minimizing the adverse effects of fire

• The traditional uses of fire should remain as a practice for those communities and be adapted to the current environment

• The destructive impacts of unplanned fires on lives, property and resources should be minimized, if not totally prevented

• The interactions of climate change with vegetation cover and fire regimes should be understood and appropriately considered

• Fire should be managed to ensure properly functioning and sustainable ecosystems

• All fire management activities should be based on a legal framework and supported by clear policy and procedures

• Multistakeholder approach, International cooperation, Knowledge transfer

Source: FAO 2006. www.fao.org/forestry

http://www.fao.org/forestry

RECURRING FIRES…

2003 CIFOR publication

2002 ASEAN agreement1997-98 Fires, “planetary disaster”

Indonesian peat fires:

Hotspots

&

Media

INDICATIONS OF FIRE

WHAT ARE HOTSPOTS?• Indications of fires from

satellites• Typically 1x1 km resolution• Typically daily• High probability but no

certainty of detecting fires• Can not be used to estimate

area or intensity of fires• Lower accuracy for less hot

fires (such as peat fires)

3 Oct 2015

3 OCTOBER 2015

WHY THE EMPHASIS ON INDONESIAN FIRES?• Long-standing conflict in Indonesia between land

development and nature protection– Conservation agenda vs. Development agenda– Conflicts over land tenure and rights

• Climate change negotiations– REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest

Degradation)– Timing of the Paris conference in December 2015

• Peat fires make more smoke– Singapore is located downwind– More media attention

SIMPLIFIED STORIES OF HOTSPOTS AND CONCESSIONS• Some reporting based only on

– Hotspots from satellites– Plantation concession maps from Jakarta

• Simplified analyses– Assumption that concession owners / corporations are the main

culprits and that plantations in general are bad– Fuels a Northern environmentalism agenda

• Examples of headlines– “613 hotspots found in pulpwood concessions within three

weeks” (EEPN 2012)– “Palm oil companies must come clean on Indonesian fire

hotspots” (Greenpeace 2013)– In a week Riau hotspots notches 1605 as 474 found in pulp

concessions (Eyes on the forest 2014)– Illegal fires put 'sustainable' palm oil in the hot spot (EIA 2013)

FIRES INSIDE AND OUTSIDE CONCESSIONS

HOTSPOTS IN CONCESSIONS? NOT THAT SIMPLE.

Fires: by whom and where

Inside concessions Outside concessions

By “corporations” 25%

By “communities” 23%

Illegal at federal/national

level

Source: Gaveau et al. (draft) Who is responsible for Indonesia’s fires in concessions? Satellites can mislead: Policy makers beware.

33% ofConcession

used by commu-

nities

52%

One in-depth study of fire proponents, draft findings

=100% of361,000 haburnt area studied

SO HOW DID MEDIA REPORT?• Add picture of kalimantan here (irresistible news)

NORTHERN HEADLINES WERE OFTEN ABOUT CO2 EMISSIONS AND HABITATS

• How Indonesia's Fires Made it the Biggest Climate Polluter (Bloomberg 29 Oct)

• Southeast Asia's haze crisis: A 'crime against humanity’ (CNN 29 Oct)

• How to Save Indonesia’s Forests (NYT 23 Oct)

• Indonesian forest fires on track to emit more CO2 than UK (The Guardian 7 Oct)

• South East Asia haze: Orangutans at risk in Indonesia fires (BBC 19 Oct)

• Indonesia- Massive Fires and Carbon Emissions (Canada Free Press (19 Jan)

• Haze threatens Singapore Formula 1 race (BBC 16 Sep)

• With Latest Fires Crisis, Indonesia Surpasses Russia as World’s Fourth-Largest Emitter (WRI 29 Oct)

• Indonesia’s Fire Outbreaks Producing More Daily Emissions than Entire US Economy (WRI 16 Oct)

NEWS REPORTING FOR WHOSE AGENDA?

THE HUMANITARIAN ASPECTS• Indonesia haze fueling major health problems (CNN 28 Oct)

• Scientists warn of health damage from Indonesia’s haze fires (Reuters 12 Nov)

• South East Asia haze: Deadly cost of Indonesia’s burning land

• Life under Indonesia’s choking haze (Al Jazeera 9 Dec)

• Don’t inhale: Scientists look at what the Indonesian haze is made of (CIFOR 21 Oct)

But what is the media interest today?

Searches on “haze”

nothing in Jakarta Post, since late October 2015

The Straits Times, one article about air travel refunding January 2016

LONGEVITY OF MEDIA INTEREST…

Causes.

EL NIÑO MAKES IT WORSE BUT SHOULD NOT BE BLAMED

ROOT CAUSES OF FIRE1. The fires are man-made

– They are agriculture fires!– Representing agriculture investments– and local development aspirations

2. Mismatch between sector policies3. Tenure and illegal land market

– Unclear land tenure and in-secure concession areas

– Illegal land transactions

– Conflicts: Community vs. state vs. corporate

4. Bad practices of agricultural and plantation development– Corporate/contractors/workers

– Communities5. Land politics

• Patronage network between business and government

• Land politics for local elections

Village head & officers $88 (13%)

Land claimant$29 (4%)

Tree cutting $77(12%)

Slashing $96 (14%)

Marketing team $38 (6%)

Total BenefitSlash & cut$665/ha

Organizer $338 (51%)

Insecure tenure: Illegal land market

Source: Purnomo et al. Fire Economy and Network in Riau: An analytical approach


Land claimant,$38 (4%)

Tree cutting $77 (9%)

Slashing $96 (11%)

Marketing team, $54 (6%)

Total Benefit$856/ha

Organizer $486 (57%)

Burning $15 (2%)

Farmer cheap/free land $2 (0.2%)

Fire provides benefits to some people



Land claimant,$38 (1%)

Tree cutting $77 (3%)

Slashing $96 (3%)

Marketing team, $54 (2%)

Total Benefit$3,077/ha

Organizer$1567 (51%)

Burning $15 (1%)

Cheap/free land $2 (0.1%)

Oil Palm development$992 (32%)

Oil palm growing wage$147 (5%)

Three-year oil palm


PATRONAGE NETWORKS

Social network analysis: Local elites/cukong who organize farmers are the most influential actors in land transactions. Connected to Corporate actors.

Facts and Effects

(as we understand them now)

FIRE AND HAZE 2015 2.6 million ha of land burnt

and $15-30 billions of economic losses

43 million people exposed to haze

½ million victims of acute respiratory infections

19 people reported dead 25,000 fire and security

personnel deployed to suppress fires

ONE CALCULATION OF LOSSES AND GAINS – CORRECT VALUATIONS?

TOXICITY• CIFOR Scientists in Central

Kalimatan in October 2015 measuring toxicity

• Indonesia’s Meteorological Bureau (BMKG) recorded record air pollution levels of 2000 micrograms per cubic meter (less than 30 is healthy air)

• 200 micrograms per cubic meter in Singapore for three days

TOXIC SMOKE FROM PEAT FIRES

The 2015 peat fires produced high concentrations of toxic carbon monoxide. Normal concentrations are 100 parts per billion (ppbv), MOPPIT satellite measured in October 2015, CO concentrations >1,300 ppbv

Stevens and Allen NASA

CO poisoning include:- Heart failure- birth defects

Photo by Aulia Erlangga/ CIFOR

TOXIC SMOKE FROM PEAT FIRESThe 2015 peat fires produced unprecedented concentrations of Particulate Matter (soot) in the air. Normal concentrations are 30µg m-3. BMKG measured concentrations >500µg m-3 for two months, and peaks >2000µg m-3 for several weeks

Health effects include:- lung cancer- cardiovascular disease- asthma- birth defects.

Badan Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika

Area Peat (ha) Non-peat (ha) Total %Sumatra 267,974 565,025 832,999 40%Kalimantan 319,386 487,431 806,817 39%Papua 31,214 321,977 353,191 17%Sulawesi 30,912 30,912 1%Bali and Nusra 30,162 30,162 1%Jawa 18,768 18,768 1%Maluku 17,063 17,063 1%

618,574 1,471,338 2,089,912 100%30% 70%

Hot spots, Oct 2015 (NASA 2015)

LAPAN, November 2nd 2015

Note that total area of Sumatra + Kalimantan is 102 Mha, so about 2% were burnt in 2015.

Hotspot indications are visually exaggerated

SUMMARY OF AFFECTED AREAS

(84% on peat)

FIRES TARGET IDLE DRAINED PEAT LANDS

Gaveau et al. in review

Forest Cemetery in Riau: shrubs ands wood debris: forest was cleared a few years priorby massive illegal logging

Fire is a land clearing tool to expandOil palm agriculture in unproductive areas

CALCULATING CO2 EMISSIONS FROM FOREST CONVERSION TO OIL PALM PLANTATION -

Flux change approach 11.8 ± 0.7 Mg CO2-eq ha-1yr-1, or 294 ± 18 Mg CO2-eq ha−1 over 25 yrs

Stock change approach2221 ± 269 Mg CO2-eq ha-1 (maximum peat depth was 3 m)

Note: C losses from multiple fires during

land preparation are not included Net emissions from protected PSF

12 Mg CO2-eq ha-1 yr-1

ESTIMATED EMISSIONS

Source: http://www.globalfiredata.org/updates.html

Towards solutions

A “wicked” environmental problem because...

• No easy or technical solutions, especially on peatland• Lack of evidence on which solutions would be most effective

• Hotly contested, political issue, multiple scales, sectors and actors

PEATLAND RESTORATION AGENCY Presidential Decree No.1/2016

Reports to the President, supported by cross-sectoral Technical Expert Committee including:

Provincial Governors Director-Generals from

Ministries of Environment & Forestry; Agriculture; Agrarian & Spatial Affairs; National Development Planning; Coordinating Ministry of Economic Affairs

To restore 2 million hectares of peatland by 2020 in Riau, Jambi, South Sumatra, West Kalimantan, Central Kalimantan, South Kalimantan and Papua provinces

SOME REQUIRED OUTCOMESDirect Drastically reduced

Conversion of forests into agriculture Use of fire in agriculture Cultivation on peatland

Improved Opportunities for sustainable rural livelihoods and income

Indirect Improved health Reduced losses for businesses across many sectors Reduced risks in food production Improved markets and value chains for sustainable products Reduced emissions of greenhouse gases

SOME POSSIBLE ACTIONS BEYOND RESTORATION Public investments (fiscal policies to address needs of rural people -

schooling, healthcare, job creation, incentives for non-fire agriculture),

Engagement by banks and financial institutions to curb inappropriate investments (Indonesia and abroad) by conditioning financial services,

Deeper engagement with/by corporations active in large-scale land use,

Easing bureaucracy and raising accountability of public institutions and government,

Reforms of land use policies and spatial planning to reduce commercial use of peatlands,

Targeted public awareness campaigns (education, TV, media, social networks), to promote sustainable development perspectives, promotion of alternative technologies/investments in agriculture, reforms of enforcement practices

TAKE-HOME

• These are agriculture fires, – they are man-made and – keep coming back

• The attention span is short• Impact on health and livelihoods

are the most serious• Solutions must address a wide

spectrum of development issues– and will take time

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THANK YOU

Acknowledgements to CIFOR staff:…