PowerPoint Presentation

Climate Change

Source NASA Releases Detailed Global Climate Change Projections, June 8, 2015, accessed September 7, 2016, https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-releases-detailed-global-climate-change-projections.

Unfortunately, its NOT a hoax2016 is the hottest year so far Scientific American , May 2016

While an exceptionally strong El Nio has provided a boost to temperatures in recent months, the primary driver has been the heat that has built up from decades of unabated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

Two key climate change indicators -- global surface temperatures and Arctic sea ice extent -- have broken numerous records through the first half of 2016, according to NASA analyses of ground-based observations and satellite data.

The six-month period from January to June was also the planet's warmest half-year on record, with an average temperature 1.3 degrees Celsius (2.4 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than the late nineteenth century.

American view of climate change

A 2016 poll, conducted by the Energy Police Institute at the University of Chicago and the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found:77 percent of Americans said climate change was happening;

13 percent were unsure if climate change was happening; and

10 percent denied its existence.

Jim Kim President at the World BankOn 9/23/16, Kim said, August was the 16th consecutive month of record-breaking heat.

It would take more than $1 trillion a year over the next 15 years for countries to get their climate agenda on track.

I dont see this as insurmountable. In fact, I see it as a trillion-dollar opportunity for the private sector to help cut greenhouse gas emissions and create climate-smart investments on the ground.

This could be an opportunity to take a potential disaster and turn it into one of the greatest win-win situations: Investments in clean energy driving economic growth.

OverviewGases in Earths atmosphere keep the planet warmer than it would otherwise be without the atmosphere.

This natural condition is analogous to how a greenhouse maintains a warmer temperature than its surrounding environment.

There is a natural balance to the biogeochemical cycle of elements like carbon.

The human population is disrupting this natural balance in the carbon cycle by extracting and burning fossil fuels, causing carbon to accumulate in the atmosphere at a higher rate than it would under natural conditions.

Warming average, global temperatures disrupt climatic/weather patterns causing droughts in some locations and flooding in others.

OverviewRising temperatures change the natural distribution of species, which disrupts ecosystems and contributes to the loss of biodiversity.

Climate change is a cumulative problem and threatens global stability of ecosystems, societies, and economies.

Substantial efforts are needed to stabilize and reduce GHG emissions.

We must mitigate, adapt, and plan, but we have passed the point of avoiding impacts caused by climate change.

Delay will magnify the challenges of GHG emission reduction and the impacts to the planet, to people, and to profits.

Weather and ClimateThe Earths atmosphere has physical features that change day to day as well as patterns that are consistent over a space of many years.

The daily properties such as wind speed and direction, temperature, amount of sunlight, pressure, and humidity are referred to as weather.

The patterns that are constant over many years (30 years or more) are referred to as climate.

The two most important factors in describing climate are average temperature and average precipitation amounts.

What is the Greenhouse Effect?2. Some solar energy penetrates the atmosphere.1. Some solar energy is reflected back into space.3. Earths surface is heated by the sun and radiates the heat.4. GHG in the atmosphere trap some of the heat.

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Al Gore did not invent the Internet. (2000 Presidential Campaign)

He did not discover the greenhouse effect and he did not invent climate change.

Dont worry understanding climate change science does not make you a left-wing liberal.

Jean Baptiste Joseph Fourier Jean Baptiste Joseph Fourier (1768 to 1830) was a French mathematician and physicist.

In 1801, Fourier returned from Egypt on the Napoleon expedition with many artifacts including an ink pressed copy of the Rosetta Stone.

However, he is most famous for his heat transfer studies, based on Newtons equations, and he is credited with the discovery of the greenhouse effect.

Its just physics and chemistry.Beginning with work by Fourier in the 1820s, scientists understood that gases in the atmosphere might trap the heat received from the Sun.

As Fourier put it, energy in the form of visible light from the Sun easily penetrates the atmosphere to reach the surface and heat it up, but heat cannot so easily escape back into space. For the air absorbs invisible heat rays (infrared radiation) rising from the surface.

The warmed air radiates some of the energy back down to the surface, helping it stay warm.

The Goldilocks PrincipleThe equations and data available to 19th-century scientists were far too poor to allow an accurate calculation.

Yet the physics was straightforward enough to show that a bare, airless rock at the Earth's distance from the Sun should be far colder than the Earth actually is.

Absolute Zero = 0 degrees KelvinThe temperature of space is 2.7 degrees Kelvin.Venus has more greenhouse gases than Earth.The average global temperature of Venus is 900 degrees F.Mars has less greenhouse gases than Earth.The average global temperature of Mars is negative 200 degrees F.Earth is just right the natural balance of greenhouses gases is good.

http://www.c2es.org/facts-figures/basics

Marinephotosynthesisrespiration

The Carbon CycleThe relationship between photosynthesis and aerobic cellular respiration should be kept in mind when discussing the carbon cycle.

The equation tells us that aerobic cellular respiration releases carbon dioxide, which is needed for photosynthesis.

Photosynthesis releases oxygen, which is needed for aerobic cellular respiration.

See how natural systems balance.

The Carbon CycleIn addition to cycling through the atmosphere in an exchange between plants and animals, dead organisms are also a source of carbon. If decomposition is incomplete then carbonification occurs. This is a process that transforms the remains into coal, oil, and natural gas. We call these resources fossil fuels.

Most of the fossil fuel was formed during the Carboniferous period (286 to 360 million years ago) when exceptionally large amounts of organic matter were buried before decomposing. Humans are short circuiting the biogeochemical carbon cycle by extracting and burning fossil fuels. Fossil fuels are nonrenewable resources.

U.S. greenhouse gas pollution includesCarbon Dioxide (CO2), ~82% - Enters the atmosphere through burning fossil fuels (coal, natural gas, and oil), solid waste, trees and wood products, and also as a result of certain chemical reactions (e.g., manufacture of cement).

Fluorinated gases, ~3%, - Hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, and sulfur hexafluoride are synthetic, powerful greenhouse gases that are emitted from a variety of industrial processes.

Nitrous Oxide (N2O), ~6% - Emitted during agricultural and industrial activities, as well as during combustion of fossil fuels and solid waste.

Methane (CH4), ~9% - Emitted during the production and transport of coal, natural gas, and oil as well as from landfills.

What are the sources of GHG emissions?Transportation = 28% of U.S. GHG

Source: EIA (2012)

Source: Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks 1990-2010 (EPA 2012)

Factory in Yutian in China's north-west Hebei province - 2007

Global Climate ChangeThe buildup of greenhouse gases will lead to global warming UN, NASA, NOAA, US EPA, DoD, DOE, Harvard University, etc.

The effects of global warming will be a rise in sea level and a change in climate patterns, which will impact agriculture and other aspects of civilization.

The daily temperature will not rise uniformly across the globe; rather, the annual, average temperature will rise over time and cause a shift in climate patterns.

Some areas will be wetter, so will be drier. Some will receive more snowfall at times and some will receive less as a result of shifts in the jet stream.

Climate Change Pew ResearchMany natural processes, from evolution to continental drift, happen so slowly that it took humans millennia to realize they were happening at all. By those standards, the global climate is changing quite rapidly the average global temperature has risen about 1.5 degrees Fahrenheit since 1880, according to NASAs Goddard Institute for Space Studies. But people remain more focused on short-term weather events, which affect their lives immediately, than long-run climate trends.

NASA has loaded more than 6 decades of temperature data into this short video, and the global warming is obvious. Reds and yellows show temperatures warmer than the mid-20th century baseline; light and dark blues indicate cooler than average temperatures.http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/01/31/chart-of-the-week-a-half-century-of-global-climate-change/

Climate Change Model ValidationNatural processes such as changes in the sun's energy, shifts in ocean currents, and others affect Earth's climate. However, they do not explain the warming that we have observed over the last half-century.

Models that account only for the effects of natural processes are not able to explain the warming over the past century. Models that also account for the greenhouse gases emitted by humans are able to explain this warming.Source: USGRCP 2009

Average Global Temperature Trend

Source: NASA Earth Observatory Data

350 ppm http://350.org/about/science/ According to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies - If humanity wishes to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization developed and to which life on Earth is adapted, paleoclimate evidence and ongoing climate change suggest that CO2 will need to be reduced from [current levels] to at most 350 ppm. Dr. James Hansen

Most scientists, climate experts, and national governments agree with Dr. Hansen that 350 ppm is the safe level of carbon dioxide.

400 ppmRight now (9/5/16) were at 402.24 ppm, and were adding 2 ppm of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere every year.

Unless we are able to rapidly turn that around and return to below 350 ppm this century, we risk triggering tipping points and irreversible impacts that could send climate change spinning truly beyond our control.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeThe IPCC has predicted that by 2100, assuming that current trends in burning fossil fuels continue, the surface of the Earth will warm on average by as much as 6 degrees Celsius (around 11 degrees Fahrenheit) or more.

It is not possible to predict how most species, including our own, and how most ecosystems, will respond to such extreme warming, but the effects are likely to be catastrophic.

To put an average surface warming of 6 degrees Celsius into context, consider the following:

All the changes we have seen to date that have been ascribed to global warmingthe melting of glaciers, sea ice, and permafrost; the bleaching and dying of coral reefs; extreme storms and flooding, droughts, and heat waves; and major shifts in the ranges of organisms and in the timing of their biological cycles--have occurred with an average warming of approximately 1 degree since the late 19th Century.

The average temperature of the Earths surface during the peak of the last glacial period, 21,500 years ago, when large areas of North America, northern Europe and northern Asia were under a sheet of ice 2 miles and more thick, was only about 6 degrees Celsius cooler than it is now.

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet Melthttp://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/elements/2014/05/the-west-antarctica-ice-sheet-melt-defending-the-drama.htmlMay 13, 2014 - A significant chunk of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet has begun to disintegrate and, owing to the ice sheets peculiar topography (much of it lies below sea level), this process, having begun, has now also become unstoppable.

According to Eric Rignot, a glaciologist at NASAs Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Today (May 13, 2014) we present observational evidence that a large section of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet has gone into irreversible retreat.

Ripped from the headlines a terrifying conclusionIt has passed the point of no return. Rignot said that melting in the section of West Antarctica that his team had studied could cause global sea levels to rise by four feet over the course of a couple of centuries.

Since the disappearance of some of its major glaciers could quite possibly destabilize the entire ice sheet, the ultimate sea level rise from West Antarctica, he said, could be triple that.

A 12 foot rise in ocean levels in coming years!

North America with a 12 foot rise in sea level

Latest Indicators of Climate ChangeNegative impacts of climate change on crop and terrestrial food production have been more common than positive impacts, which are evident in some high-latitude regions (high confidence).

Flooding can have major economic costs, both in term of impacts (e.g., capital destruction, disruption) and adaptation (e.g., construction, defensive investment) (robust evidence, high agreement). Since the mid-20th century, socioeconomic losses from flooding have increased mainly due to greater exposure and vulnerability (high confidence).

Nashville, TN May 2010

Flood of 2010, West and Middle TNhttp://www.state.tn.us/tsla/exhibits/disasters/floods2.htm

On May 1-2, 2010, the combined effects of a stalled frontal boundary and warm, moist air rising from the Gulf of Mexico caused West and Middle Tennessee to be inundated with record-breaking amounts of rainfall.

According to the National Weather Service, in Nashville "a new two-day rainfall record was established when 13.57 inches fell on May 1 and May 2, shattering the previous record of 6.68 inches set on September 13 and 14, 1979."

Nashvilles previous record for rainfall during the month of May, 11.04 inches, was set in 1983. The 2010 storms broke that record in just the first two days of the month.

2010 FloodThe entire region experienced "1000-year floods" caused by the fact that many locations received 10-20 inches of rain over a 48-hour period. The Cumberland River flooded both Clarksville and Nashville. On May 3 in Nashville the river, with a flood stage of 40 ft., crested at 51.86 ft., a level not seen since 1937. The next day in Clarksville, where the flood stage is 46 ft., the Cumberland crested at 62.58 ft. Other rivers flooded as well: the Duck River at Centerville and Hurricane Mills, the Buffalo River at Lobelville, the Harpeth River at Kingston Springs and Bellevue, and the Red River at Port Royal.

Harpeth River, Coley Davis Road, & I-40Governor Phil Bredesen tours flood-damaged areasJackson, Madison CountyOpry Mills Mall

Cost of doing nothing is greatPortions of Interstates I-40, I-24, and I-65 were closed because of flooding. According to the Tennessee Emergency Management Agency (TEMA), "The flooding and storms caused the deaths of 24 persons.

Because of the flood the AASHTO Climate Change Workshop hosted by TDOT had to be relocated.

TDOT spent over $40 million in initial cleanup and emergency repairs to infrastructure.

I-40

Public Health Impacts and CostsThere are also public health threats associated with extreme weather. Children, the elderly, and the poor are most vulnerable to a range of climate-related health effects, including those related to heat stress, air pollution, extreme weather events (floods, drought), and diseases carried by food, water, and insects.

President Obama (2012) We can choose to believe that Super Storm Sandy, and the most severe drought in decades, and the worst wildfires some states have ever seen were all just a freak coincidence. Or we can choose to believe in the overwhelming judgment of science and act before it's too late." In 2012, extreme weather cost the US $110 B.

Impacts on Human HealthHealth may be damaged indirectly by climate-change-related ecological disruptions, such as crop failures or shifting patterns of disease vectors, or by social responses to climate change, such as displacement of populations following prolonged drought or floods.

According to the UN- IPCC, local changes in temperature and rainfall have altered distribution of some water-borne illnesses and disease vectors and have reduced food production for some vulnerable populations.

Environmental Stress is a Risk Multiplier

DoD Releases Report on Security Implications of Climate Change 2015The report finds that climate change is a security risk, Pentagon officials said, because it degrades living conditions, human security and the ability of governments to meet the basic needs of their populations.

Communities and states that already are fragile and have limited resources are significantly more vulnerable to disruption and far less likely to respond effectively and be resilient to new challenges, they added.

Impacts in North AmericaPer the UN- IPCC, many climate-related hazards that carry risk, particularly related to severe heat, heavy precipitation, and declining snowpack, will increase in frequency and/or severity in North America in the next decades (very high confidence, 99% certainty).

Climate change will amplify risks to water resources already affected by non-climatic stressors, with potential impacts associated with decreased snowpack, decreased water quality, urban flooding, and decreased water supplies for urban areas and irrigation (95% confidence).

Bald EagleClimate change is altering the distribution of species.

Scientists are concerned that the national symbol of the United States is projected to lose 73% of its current breeding range by 2080.

Policy debate can be intenseClimate skeptics: Climate change isnt happening, or isnt human-inducedEnvironmental view: Transform land use, increase transit, and reduce VMT Techno-optimist view: Transform vehicle/fuel technology and improve highway/driver operationsPragmatic view: Combination - mostly vehicles/fuels, some operational efficiency, plus modest role for land use, transit, and VMT moderation

Policy Position on Climate ChangeClimate change and related effects are complex; there is no single, one-size-fits-all approach to addressing these issues. We should focus resources on the following areas:

Mitigation (reduce emissions)Adaptation (modify infrastructure)Sustainability Strategies- Energy Efficiency- Clean Energy Alternatives- Align strategies (VMT reductions vs revenue)Communicating and Disseminating Information

Knowledge is power!Unfortunately, we have already past the point of avoiding impacts caused by climate change.

If we dont lead, then we must follow.We must be policy leaders or others will frame the discussion and define our fate.

We should identify and engage stakeholders and develop a plan of action.

Local jurisdictions could and should model the way for the state and then the nation to create win-win sustainability strategies.

SummaryGases in Earths atmosphere keep the planet warmer than it would otherwise be without the atmosphere.This natural condition is analogous to how a greenhouse maintains a warmer temperature than its surrounding environment.There is a natural balance to the biogeochemical cycle of elements like carbon.The human population is disrupting this natural balance in the carbon cycle by extracting and burning fossil fuels, causing carbon to accumulate in the atmosphere at a higher rate than it would under natural conditions.Warming average, global temperatures disrupt climatic/weather patterns causing droughts in some locations and flooding in others.Rising temperatures change the natural distribution of species, which disrupts ecosystems and contributes to the loss of biodiversity.Climate change is a cumulative problem and threatens global stability of ecosystems, societies, and economies.Substantial efforts are needed to stabilize and reduce GHG emissions.We must mitigate, adapt, and plan, but we have passed the point of avoiding impacts caused by climate change.Delay will magnify the challenges of GHG emission reduction and the impacts to the planet, to people, and to profits.

Who said that?Restoring nature to its natural state is a cause beyond party and beyond factions. It has become a common cause of all the people of this country. It is a cause of particular concern to young Americans, because they more than we will reap the grim consequences of our failure to act on programs which are needed now if we are to prevent disaster later.

Richard NixonAnnual Message to Congress on the State of the Union1970

Who said that?If weve learned any lessons during the past few decades, perhaps the most important is that preservation of our environment is not a partisan challenge; its common sense. Our physical health, our social happiness, and our economic well-being will be sustained only by all of us working in partnership as thoughtful, effective stewards of our natural resources.

Ronald ReaganRemarks on signing annual report of Council on Environmental Quality, July 11, 1984

Who said that?In pursuit of this goal, my government has set two priorities: we must clean our air, and we must address the issue of global climate change. We must also act in a serious and responsible way, given the scientific uncertainties. While these uncertainties remain, we can begin now to address the human factors that contribute to climate change. Wise action now is an insurance policy against future risks.

George W. BushSilver Springs, Maryland 2002

Who said that?Some urge we do nothing because we cant be certain how bad the climate problem might become or they presume the worst effects are most likely to occur in our grandchildrens lifetime. Im a proud conservative, and I reject that kind of live-for-today, me generation, attitude. It is unworthy of us and incompatible with our reputation as visionaries and problem solvers. Americans have never feared change. We make change work for us.

John McCainAddress at Center for Strategic and International StudiesApril 23, 2007

Who said that?The shift to a cleaner energy economy wont happen overnight, and it will require tough choices along the way. But the debate is settled. Climate change is a fact. And when our childrens children look us in the eye and ask if we did all we could to leave them a safer, more stable world, with new sources of energy, I want us to be able to say yes, we did.

Barack ObamaState of the UnionJanuary 28, 2014

Source Our 10 Favorite Climate Quotes by President Barack Obama in 2014: Climate Action Reserve, January 20, 2015, accessed September 7, 2016, http://www.climateactionreserve.org/blog/2015/01/20/our-10-favorite-climate-quotes-by-president-barack-obama-in-2014/.

Who said that? Asked if he is concerned about climate change

"Clearly there is going to be an impact. But people will adapt to rising sea levels and changing climates that may force agricultural production to shift. We have spent our entire existence adapting. We'll adapt. It's an engineering problem and there will be an engineering solution.

Rex W. Tillerson CEO and Chairman Exxon Mobil Corporation June 27, 2012 http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/jun/28/exxonmobil-climate-change-rex-tillerson

ExxonMobil earned $16.2 Billion in 2015Tillerson #141 Forbes wealthiest with $9.73 M in compensation annually