Climate resilient agriculture in Africa

Rachid Mrabet, PhDINRA Morocco

Key threats to soils in Africa

Two thirds of Africa’s arable lands could be lost by 2025 because of the negative impact of climate change.

Soil: At the Heart of Water and Food Security Nexus

Soil erosion, loss of soil organic carbon, and nutrient imbalance (depletion)

The continent loses 3% of agricultural GDP annually from soil and nutrient loss on

farmlands

Mean size (ha)

% < 2 ha

Sub-Saharan Africa 2.4 69West Asia - North Africa

4.9 65

South Asia 1.4 78East Asia 1.0 79SE Asia 1.8 57Central America 10.7 63South America 111.7 36Europe 32.3 30USA 178.4 4

Vast majority of Africa’s farms are small and family operated

Eastwood et al., 2009

Africa has 33 million family farms of less than 2 hectares, accounting for 80% of farms

Women are the backbone of agriculture in Africa

Only 3% of farms have more than 10 hectares

Changes in Food production in SSA

FAOSTAT (2014)

Food availability in Sub-Saharan Africa has increased by nearly 12 percent over the past

two decades.

Agriculture as a driver of economic transformation in Africa

FAOSTAT (2014)

Cereal production has increased by 125%, yields by 32%, and cultivated land by 70% in 30

years

Yield Gaps Persist

ERS (2013)

Yield reduction in Africa due to past soil erosion may range from 2 to 40%, with a

mean loss of 8.2% for the continent.

• Double its production by 2030 and triple it by 2050.

• Zero hunger by 2025 • food available needs

to be increased by 437 million metric tons or 47 percent of current demand.

• Developing agriculture while protecting the continent’s natural resources depends on sustainable intensification.

• Effective and sustainable intensification efforts must be geared to family farmers.

• Local markets are the main and most dynamic destination for agricultural producers.

African Agriculture at Cross Road

Climate Resilient agriculture in Africa

Coupling and hybridizing

– Ecological Production Intensification: 4 for 100 per year of increased production is necessary

– Sustainable expansion of croplands to increase by 1.5 percent or by 38.9 million hectares.

60% of the planet’s unexploited arable lands are found in Africa, but land must be protected from degradation and

exhaustion

Contribution by sub-region to total food crop production of Africa

North Africa

Southern Africa

Central Africa

West Africa

East Africa

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

18

14

9

38

21

Cropland Increase in No Hunger-High Food Security

Region CHANGE IN LAND AREA in MILLION Ha

East Africa 20West Africa 10Southern Africa 5.1Central Africa 3.7North Africa 0.1Africa 38.9

NEPAD (2016)While 40% of the land in Africa is potentially arable, only nine percent is actually cultivated.

Yield history & trends in Africa

North Africa

East Africa

Southern Africa

Central Africa

West Africa

Crop Yields (tons per hectare) for African regions

Sustainable Soil Management, Improvements to local specific seed varieties, increases in use of fertilizer, and expansions in irrigation could dramatically improve yields.

NEPAD 2016

High potential in irrigated agricultureRainfed agriculture produces 90% of SSA’s staple food needs... ...and irrigated supply

provides only 5%

African (Intended) Nationally Determined Contributions « (I)NDC analysis »: Adaptation measures

CSA= Climate Smart AgricultureSLM = Sustainable Land ManagementAF = AgroforesteryAE = Agro-ecology

Plans and policies are in progress for widening appropriation by farmers of resilience

CSA

AF

AE

SLM

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

21

20

15

85

21

20

15

50

Countries Projects

https://cgspace.cgiar.org/handle/10568/73255

Richards et al., 2016

Agroforestry systems: wide variety of shapes and forms.

Beyond significant cocoa production, Cocoa agroforestry systems in Cameroun provide wood, fruits, medicine and a variety of ecological services.

Banana agroforestry system

Farm household resilience Social wealth Water cycling

Soil cover and fertilityCarbon sequestration

Fighting desert progression

Adaptation and mitigation

REDD+ or AFOLU CONCEPTS

Agroforestry systems: cost-effective solutions to enhance food security

Mbow et al., 2013

Maize Growing under Faidherbia Albida Trees in Tanzania

Agroforestry and Soil Carbon Sequestration Rates

kg C ha−1 yr−1 World Bank 2012

Conservation Agriculture (CA)

is an approach to managing agro-ecosystems for improved and sustained productivity, increased profits and food security while preserving and enhancing the

resource base and the environment

① Minimizing soil disturbance, consistent with sustainable production. ② Maximizing soil surface cover by managing crops, pastures and crop

residues. ③ Stimulating biological activity through crop rotations, cover crops

and integrated nutrient and pest management.

Crops do not ask for plow or disk … they demand a good soil condition for germination and growth.

CA World-Wide (2013)

Continent Cropland under

CA (Million ha)

Per cent of

global CA area

Per cent of

cropland

South America 66.4 (49.5) 42.3 60.0

North America 54.0 (40) 34.4 24.0

Australia & NZ 17.9 11.4 35.9

Asia 10.3 (2.6) 6.6 3.0

Russia & Ukraine 5.2 (0.1) 3.3 3.3

Europe 2.0 (1.5) 1.3 2.8

Africa 1.2 (0.4) 0.8 0.9

Global total 157.0 (106) 100 10.9Kassam et al. 2015

Conservation agriculture holds great promise for Africa

1.22 million ha in Africa

1973 1982 2002 2007 2009 2011 20130

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

Year

Area under Conservation Agri-

culture (ha)

Mrabet, 2016

Compelling evidence exists that CA farmers worldwide and in Africa can't be wrong

Closing the yield gaps with CA

Zimbabwe, Malawi, Zambia, Kenya and TanzaniaCorbeels, M., et al., 2013

Africa will never feed itself without conservation agriculture

Increased productivity (for small, medium and large scale farmers).Savings in labour (up to 60%).

Closing the yield gaps with CA

Central Morocco

Mrabet, 2011

Africa will never feed itself without conservation agriculture

yield CT = 0,0033 Rainfall + 1,4116R2 = 0,1823

yield NT = 0,0028 Rainfall + 2,01R2 = 0,1457

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500

Rainfall (mm)

Gra

in Y

ield

(Mg/

ha)

No-tillage

Conventional Tillage

Internalizing benefits from environmental preservation

Carbon sequestration with CA

Ben Moussa Machraoui et al. 2010Tunisia

Indo-Gangetic Plains: 0.16 and 0.49 Mg C ha−1 yr−1

Sub-Sahara Africa: 0.28 and 0.96 Mg C ha−1 yr−1

Powlson et al. 2016

Mitigation Potential of CA in MtCO2e

Australia & New Zealand

USA & Canada

Brazil+Argentina+Bolivia+Uruguay

China + Kazakhistan

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

95.9

323.6

260.2

1.8

Avoided GHG emissionArea Under CA 2007

Kenya anticipates an increase in carbon uptake of 1.1 MtCO2e by 2030, equivalent to 0.04 MtCO2e per year, from no-till farming activities under its Climate Change Action Plan

UNEP Emission Gap Report, 2013

Conservation Agriculture with Trees

• Food security via increased productivity and biodiversity• Adaptation to climate change• Carbon sequestration – below & above ground

– Balanced nutrition– Micro climate creation– Arboriculture & Forest products– Biodiversity

Potentials

Trade-Offs Between Profitability and Carbon Sequestration of Sustainable Land Management

Technologies

World Bank 2012

Zai Pit indigenous system

Young sorghum grown in Zai pits in Burkina Faso(©FAO)

West African countries: Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger but also in Kenya -

Nigeria

African Innovation: the key to farming system

adaptation

Combining Zai & Fertilizer

In Niger, planting millet in pits with inorganic fertilizer multiplied the yield by four (from 144 kg/ha to 659 kg/ha) – and by ten in a good rainfall year (1,486 kg/ha)...

CHANGE IN 2050 IN THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE AT RISK OF HUNGER, RELATIVE TO THE BASELINE SCENARIO, AFTER ADOPTION OF IMPROVED

AGRICULTURAL TECHNOLOGIES

Rosegrant et al. (2014)

Zero-tillage is the best option for wheat

Shifting from degradation to sustainability

Sustainability spirale Degradation spirale

In Africa, conservation agriculture is not just an opportunity, it must become a mandate.

KEY MESSAGES Transforming agriculture

– Tackling risks and drivers to limit (or overcome) amplification.– Sustaining diversity in soils, crops, livelihoods, eco-services, …– Managing adaptively for multifunctionality in agricultural systems.– Developing knowledge and access to robust technologies and

information as well as enhancing skills for all stakeholders.– Developing and marketing indigenous knowledge.– Identifying the policy space for agriculture resilience: defining and

allocating responsibilities.– Sustaining links among governments, research and extension offices,

NGOs and civil society, private sector and farmers communities. – Implementing national and regional level efforts to extend and scale-

up CSA, SLM and AF.

Many thanks for patience