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The Future of Resources Insights from Discussions Building on an Ini4al Perspec4ve by: Prof. Suzanne Benn | UTS Business School | Sydney
Context The ini4al perspec4ve on the Future of Resources kicked off the Future Agenda 2.0 global discussions taking place through 2015.
This summary builds on the ini4al view and is updated as we progress.
Ini4al Perspec4ves Q4 2014
Global Discussions Q1/2 2015
Insight Synthesis Q3 2015
Sharing Output Q4 2015
Reaching the Limits Growing popula4ons and rising consumer demand related to higher standards of living across all socie4es are increasing consump4on of
resources and we are in danger of exceeding the Earth’s natural thresholds.
More Demand: Less Efficient Produc=on The world’s output of iron ore has roughly tripled since 2000 and we now see declining grades of ore which require greater energy input per unit of output. Demand is increasing but produc4on efficiency in some areas is declining.
More, Not Less Waste While many aspire to a zero waste system, we see growing volumes of waste especially in ci4es, par4cularly food waste – 30% of which is now thrown away every day in Europe.
Decoupling Many are ques4oning when the perpetual economic growth model
can be subs4tuted -‐ whether we can achieve ‘prosperity without growth’ and what role decoupling of these two can play.
Digital Transparency Innova4on will drive improvements in resource produc4vity: Digital
connec4vity will provide greater transparency on how we use our resources and the environmental, social and financial impact of their use.
Societal Ac=on We may see a significant bo_om-‐up groundswell of opinion in society outside government and industry that creates a socio-‐poli4cal shi`
that demands ac4on on addressing resource demand.
Net Posi=ve Impact More fully embracing the principles of cradle to cradle and the circular economy can help us go beyond being carbon, water
or energy neutral to achieving net posi4ve impact.
Global and Regional Agreements While bilateral trading rela4onships are more probable, the
opportunity for global and regional agreements has to be pursued in order to show intent and direc4on of travel.
Ac=ve Divestment A poten4al change is the influence of the divestment movement which is currently focused on persuading ins4tu4onal investors to divest from fossil fuels, but which in 4me may extend to investments in other resources.
ShiJing The Dial As our individual and collec4ve footprints become more tangible and be_er communicated, bold moves to shi` the dial are needed across the board.
New management approaches and business models are needed.
Whole-‐Life Design There is widespread applica4on of processes focused on lifecycle design
that seek to maximise the use, reuse and recycling of materials, components and products in order to minimise end-‐of-‐life waste.
Poli=cal S=mulus Poli4cal consensus creates the condi4ons for a societal and business opera4ng context more focused on resource efficiency -‐ including a long-‐term focus, fiscal s4mulus, skills development and greater cross-‐border collabora4on.
What’s Mine is Yours We see development and prolifera4on of an economic system built around sharing of human, intellectual and physical resources that promotes access rather than ownership and that is fuelled by technology and connec4vity.
Emerging Norms Influen4al developing economies drive new rules and prac4ces where individuals and organisa4ons design for risk and vola4lity -‐ and are no longer limited by legacy business models and infrastructure.
Seeds of Change More frequent physical shock, such as Beijing’s smogageddon and the more severe early impacts of climate change, will finally drive mass change in global
social adtudes and mass adop4on of the ideology of sustainability.
True Cost Products and Services Rising consumer awareness and demands for transparency mean that product offers reflect true costs of produc4on and resource extrac4on. ‘Externali4es’ throughout value chains become ‘internali4es’ -‐ changing the way we think about pricing.
Predictable Conflict and Unusual Alliances Conflicts over scarce resources are not new but will become more frequent, widespread and ‘close to home’. New conflicts will lead to ‘unusual alliances’
between divergent groups with mutual interests in specific resources.
Weak Governance, Strong Interests Weak leadership and weak governance over the best use of resources will remain, leaving the debate to vested interests and grassroots movements. 2025 will be a cri4cal moment of hindsight on decisions being made today.
Resource Migra=on We will see mass migra4on con4nue due to localised scarci4es of essen4al resources such as food and water, but also in line with the
shi`ing geography of resource-‐driven work opportuni4es and economics.
Resource Awareness Mass awareness of the need to manage resources sustainably will become reality but will arise from myriad sources (formal educa4on, local campaigns, disasters etc.) leading to global recogni4on but fragmented understanding.
Waste Not Want Not Waste will increasingly be seen as a useful resource. Bio-‐waste being used to generate gas and materials being re-‐cycled and re-‐used, may be precursors to
the idea of processed waste becoming a product in its own right.
Dematerialisa=on of Infrastructure Investment in resource-‐heavy infrastructure declines as big-‐data
and digital networks help us to use current infrastructure more efficiently (or even bypass it en4rely).
The Bio-‐sphere The bio-‐sphere will come to be seen as just another resource, albeit one which demands a ‘give and take’ rela4onship rather
than simple extrac4on and exploita4on.
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