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The Future of Water in Asia
The Future of Water3rd Karachi International Water Conference 2017
Dr. Claudia Sadoff, Director General
International Water Management Institute
Photo: Hamish John Appelby / IWMI
Great global concern over water
What is the future of water in Asia?
25% more people by 2050 in Asia
Domestic water demand to triple & industrial to double by 2050
By 2050, 40% of Asia’s population in severe water scarcity
Growing population – growing scarcity
Asia among fastest growing economies
Among the fastest urbanizing
Over 22 megacities in Asia by 2030
Shifting demands sectorally & spatially
Economic transformation & urbanization
Photo: Neil Palmer / IWMI
Sharing “closed/closing” river basins
Roughly half of the basins in Asia are transboundary
Many ‘closed’ of ‘closing’, meaning that all water is used (includes environmental flows)
Increasing demands, increasing tensions
Sub-optimal management & development
Climate variability & uncertainty
Schew et al. (2013)
Relative change in annual discharge at 2oC vis. today, under RCP8.5
• Wet gets wetter – Dry gets drier
• Per capita water declines in much of Asia
• In South Asia up to -30% per capita
• More extremes, double the drought days
• Variability well outside the historical range
Little aggregate volume change projected – however:
Water-related risks (economic)
Asia has the largest global
concentration of water-related
risks ($)
Securing Water, Sustaining Growth Sadoff et al., 2015
Securing Water, Sustaining Growth Sadoff et al., 2015
Flood risk to peopleAsia’s share of people at risk of flooding is striking
Alternative water futures for Asia?
Intensify sustainable agriculture
Sustainable agricultural intensification potential• Largely in rainfed agriculture
Water smart agriculture for smallholders in AsiaBetter methods to capture, store & conserve water• Small-scale irrigation systems• Participatory groundwater management • ‘Green’ solutions i.e., rainwater harvesting, watershed
management
Water productivity innovations
Resource Recovery and Reuse Business Models
Wastewater recycling – ‘water portfolio’
Remove hazards from the environment
Return resources - water, nutrients and energy – to productive uses
• Groundwater recharge• Industrial & landscape water• Salt-water intrusion barrier wells• Fertilizer pellets from sludge• Energy from biogas
Manage uncertainty & enhance resilience
• Forecast & early warning of drought/flood
• Last mile connectivity – apps, etc.
• Enhanced storage capacity and more coordinated management of storage
• Redundancy in supply
• Index-based weather & crop insurance to reduce economic impacts of shocks
Remotely sensed drought monitoring
Pursue cooperation on shared rivers
Knowledge consolidation
Decision strengthening
Dialogue facilitation
Water policy can promote inclusion
Institutional and policy measures that offer inclusive access to water, with special emphasis on gender equality
Sustainably managed solar irrigation –strengthens ‘agency’ by de-linking from publicly provided water & energy
Technologies to inform water policy & mgmt
From small-scale, ground-based, citizen science like mobile weather stations…
http://www.iwmi.cgiar.org/resources/mobile-weather-stations/
http://wateraccounting.org
…to large-scale, remotely sensed water balance
frameworks like Water Accounting + that
estimate flows, stocks, consumption & services
Technologies to inform water policy & mgmt
…to web-based information systems, decision support systems, geo-spatial tools, and
platforms for options analysis
Sri Lanka Water Information System
Myanmar WaterInformation System
Technologies to inform water policy & mgmt
Technologies to inform water policy & mgmt
Allocate
Monitor
Enforce
So, what is the future of water in Asia?
We cannot predictthe future of water in Asia
But we can shape it
Thank you