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Lead authors:Edgar Hertwich, Thomas Gibon, Sangwon Suh,Jacqueline Aloisi de Larderel, Joe Bergesen
Green Energy Choices The Benefits, Risks and Trade‐offs of Low‐Carbon Technologies for Electricity Production
Background
2
Green Energy Choices The Benefits, Risks and Trade‐offs of Low‐Carbon Technologies for Electricity Production
IPCC: A near‐complete shift to low‐carbon energy sources is required for any stabilization target
2.6°C 2.2°C 1.9°C 1.6°C
Importance of electricity increases
Source: IPCC AR5 (2014)
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Green Energy Choices The Benefits, Risks and Trade‐offs of Low‐Carbon Technologies for Electricity Production
Challenge
Which technologies for electricity generation can reduce both GHG emissions and avoid impacts on human health and ecosystems?
Source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2015
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2012 2020 2030 2040 2050
GtCO2
Technologies Renewables 30%CCS 13%Power generation efficiency and fuel switching 1%End‐use fuel switching 10%End‐use fuel and electricity efficiency 38%Nuclear 8%
Baseline emissions 56 Gt
BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt
Renewables 30%
CCS 13%
Green Energy Choices The Benefits, Risks and Trade‐offs of Low‐Carbon Technologies for Electricity Production
What are environmental, health and resource use implications of a massive expansion of low‐carbon electricity?
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©Richie Chan/Shutterstock
A 5MW offshore wind turbine requires 1200 tons of steel
350 000 such wind turbines would be required to provide 12%
electricity in 2050.
Green Energy Choices The Benefits, Risks and Trade‐offs of Low‐Carbon Technologies for Electricity Production
What are environmental, health and resource use implications of a massive expansion of low‐carbon electricity?
6
© Ranglen/Shutterstock
3.2 million premature deaths from particulate matter.
Green Energy Choices The Benefits, Risks and Trade‐offs of Low‐Carbon Technologies for Electricity Production7
• Coal and gas with and without CO2 capture and storage (CCS),
• Photovoltaic power, • Concentrated solar power,
• Hydropower, • Geothermal,• Wind power.
Nine electricitytechnologies
• Damage on ecosystems• ecotoxicity,• eutrophication,• acidification…
• Damage on human health• particulate matter,• human toxicity…
• Resource use• iron, copper, aluminium, cement,
• energy, water and land
Impactcategories
• Extraction of rawmaterials,
• Fuel supply chain,• Production of powerplants,
• Transportation• Operation,• Maintenance,• Decommissioning.
Life cycleperspective
Assessment Approach and Method
Green Energy Choices The Benefits, Risks and Trade‐offs of Low‐Carbon Technologies for Electricity Production
Results
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Green Energy Choices The Benefits, Risks and Trade‐offs of Low‐Carbon Technologies for Electricity Production
Human Health(DALY/TWh)
Ecosystems(species‐year/TWh)
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0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Supercritical Offshore,gravity
foundation
Offshore,steel
foundation
Onshore
Coal Wind
Human toxicityIonising radiationParticulate matterSummer smog
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Supercritical Offshore,gravity
foundation
Offshore,steel
foundation
Onshore
Coal Wind
freshwater ecotoxicityfreshwater eutrophicationmarine ecotoxicityterrestrial acidificationterrestrial ecotoxicity
Wind power
Excluding effects of climate change and land use
Green Energy Choices The Benefits, Risks and Trade‐offs of Low‐Carbon Technologies for Electricity Production
Wind power
•Very low GHG emissions (++)
Climate change
•Reduced exposure to particulate matter(++)•Reduced human toxicity (‐‐)
Human Health
•Collision fatalities of birds and bats (+=)•Reduced ecotoxicity and eutrophication (=‐)
Ecosystems
• Increased consumption of bulk metals ( +=)• Low water use (==)• Low direct land use (==)
Resources
Key (##)First symbol(+) high agreement among studies (=) moderate agreement (‐) low agreementSecond symbol(+) robust evidence (many studies) (=) medium evidence (‐) limited evidence
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©Jeff Adkins
Green Energy Choices The Benefits, Risks and Trade‐offs of Low‐Carbon Technologies for Electricity Production
Low‐impact projects:• Good wind conditions• Limit bird and bat collision
fatalities• Recycling
Wind power
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©Jeff Adkins
Green Energy Choices The Benefits, Risks and Trade‐offs of Low‐Carbon Technologies for Electricity Production
Human Health(DALY*/TWh)
Ecosystems(species‐year/TWh)
12
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500S
uper
criti
cal w
CC
S
Sup
ercr
itica
l
IGC
C w
ith C
CS
IGC
C
Nat
ural
gas
w C
CS
Nat
ural
gas
Coal Natural gas
Human toxicityIonising radiationParticulate matterSummer smog
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Sup
ercr
itica
l w C
CS
Sup
ercr
itica
l
IGC
C w
ith C
CS
IGC
C
Nat
ural
gas
w C
CS
Nat
ural
gas
Coal Natural gas
freshwater ecotoxicityfreshwater eutrophicationmarine ecotoxicityterrestrial acidificationterrestrial ecotoxicity
Coal and natural gas power, with CO2 capture and storage
Excluding effects of climate change and land use
Green Energy Choices The Benefits, Risks and Trade‐offs of Low‐Carbon Technologies for Electricity Production
Coal and natural gas power, with CO2 capture and storage
• Low GHG (++)• Substantial fugitive methane emissions (==)• Concern about CO2 leakage (‐=)
Climate
• Solvent related emissions (==)• High particulate matter (==)• High human toxicity (=‐)
Human health
• High eutrophication (mining, ++)• Ecotoxicity (+=)
Ecosystem health
• Increased fossil fuel consumption (++)• Limited CO2 storage (++)
Resources
Key (##)First symbol(+) high agreement among studies (=) moderate agreement (‐) low agreementSecond symbol(+) robust evidence (many studies) (=) medium evidence (‐) limited evidence
13
©Reuters
Green Energy Choices The Benefits, Risks and Trade‐offs of Low‐Carbon Technologies for Electricity Production
Low‐impact projects:• Reduced emissions infuel production andtransport
• Geology• Sourcing
Coal and natural gas power, with CO2 capture and storage
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©Reuters
Green Energy Choices The Benefits, Risks and Trade‐offs of Low‐Carbon Technologies for Electricity Production
Technology Comparison
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Green Energy Choices The Benefits, Risks and Trade‐offs of Low‐Carbon Technologies for Electricity Production
Human Health ImpactDALY/TWh
400
300
200
100
0
Comparative Human Health Impacts
Green Energy Choices The Benefits, Risks and Trade‐offs of Low‐Carbon Technologies for Electricity Production
60
40
20
0
Damage to ecosystemsSpecies-year/1000 TWh
Comparative Ecological Impacts
Green Energy Choices The Benefits, Risks and Trade‐offs of Low‐Carbon Technologies for Electricity Production
Impacts from electricity generation under IEA Blue Map vsbusiness as usual scenarios
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For more information please visit:www.unep.org/resourcepanel