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Health impacts of planned coal-fired
power plants in Japan
PM2.5: tiny, toxic particles that enter
deep into lungs and into the bloodstream
Largest environmental health risk in the
world
• Air pollution is the biggest environmental killer in the world
(Global Burden of Disease Study)
• WHO: Air pollution is officially classified as a carcinogen and
labeled “a leading environmental cause of cancer deaths”
Evidence of health risks
• “American Cancer Society study”: The largest and most
well-known study on particulate air pollution and risk of
death.
• 500,000 adults in 50 U.S. states with different air pollution
levels were followed between 1982 and 1998.
• People living in more polluted environments have a
significantly higher risk of fatal heart and lung disease and
lung cancer.
Health risks from PM2.5 in Japan
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%
Fukuoka
Hiroshima
Osaka
Kobe
Sapporo
Saitama
Kyoto
Nagoya
Sendai
Tokyo
Kawasaki
Yokohama
Increase in the risk of stroke in Japanese cities due to PM2.5
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%
Fukuoka
Hiroshima
Osaka
Kobe
Sapporo
Saitama
Kyoto
Nagoya
Sendai
Tokyo
Kawasaki
Yokohama
Increase in the risk of lung cancer in Japanese cities due to PM2.5
Calculated using data and methodology of Global Burden of Disease 2015
Impacts of coal power expansion
Coal emissions are harmful to human health
SO2 and NOx from power plants oxidize in the atmosphere to form particulate
matter (PM). NOx can also increase ozone concentrations. Both PM and
ozone lead to premature mortality in people.
SO2
NOx
Fine particulate matter (PM2.5)
Ozone (O3)Image sources: cliparts.co; www.envpl.ipb.ac.rs; Jupiterimages
Corporation;
www.intechopen.com/source/html/42164/media/image4.png
Respiratory and
cardiovascular disease
Power sector dominates SO2 emissions
Coal use in power plants32%
Oil use in power plants29%
Other fuels in industry1%
Transport26%
Residential3%
Others9%
Japan SO2 emissions by sector (2008)
Existing plants and new projects included in the study
Most coal-fired power plants planned near
large population centers
Planned coal power projects would increase
air pollutant emissions from coal by a third
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
SO2 NOx PM10
kt/y
r
Effect of planned coal expansion on emissions
Existing plants New projects
Emissions from existing and new coal-fired power
plants assuming 40-year operating life
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
200000
2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
ton
nes
PM - new plants
NOx - new plants
SO2 - new plants
PM
NOx
SO2
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
SO2 NOx
Cumulative
Existing New
GEOS-Chem simulates the concentrations of pollutants
GEOS-Chem is a global 3-D chemical transport model used by many
research groups around the world to advance our understanding of
atmospheric composition and to answer policy relevant questions pertaining
to air quality and climate change.
Global 3-D CTM
Emission inventories
Assimilated meteorology
Pollutant concentrations
10o S0o
10o N
20o N
30o N
40o N
100o E
120o E
140o E
0.10
0.20
0.50
1.00
2.00
5.00
10.0
0
10o S0o
10o N
20o N
30o N
40o N
100o E
120o E
140o E
02500
0
5000
0
7500
0
1000
00
1250
00
10o S0o
10o N
20o N
30o N
40o N
100o E
120o E
140o E
05000
0
1000
00
1500
00
2000
00
2500
00
3000
00
3500
00
Emissions(SO2, NOx, dust)
Dispersion & chemistry in the atmosphere
Population exposure to PM2.5
Health impacts
Coal power plant database developed for the project
Cutting-edge atmospheric model (Geos-Chem) at Harvard University
High-resolution population density maps from NASA
Results of large epidemiological studies
Death rates from lung cancer, stroke, heart disease, chronic respiratory disease and lower respiratory infections in each country
Emission rates from official statistics, companies and academic studies
National emission standards
Fuel use data from the IEA
Results: air quality impacts
Summer mean ozone from operating plants
Summer mean ozone from operating and new plants
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
Cities most affected by coal power plant pollution in Japan
PM2.5, current PM2.5, future
Results: health impacts
Annual premature deaths from existing
plants
Pollutant Effect Number Confidence
interval
PM2.5 Lung cancer 130 (50 - 200)
PM2.5 Ischaemic heart disease 370 (240 - 510)
PM2.5 Stroke 220 (140 - 310)
PM2.5 Other cardiovascular disease 190 (120 - 260)
PM2.5 Chronic obstructive pulmonary
disease
50(30 - 70)
PM2.5 Other respiratory diseases 80 (50 - 110)
O3 Respiratory diseases 70 (20 - 120)
Total 1120 (650 - 1580)
Annual premature deaths if new projects
come online
Pollutant Effect Number Confidence
interval
PM2.5 Lung cancer 200 (90 - 320)
PM2.5 Ischaemic heart disease 460 (300 - 630)
PM2.5 Stroke 280 (170 - 390)
PM2.5 Other cardiovascular disease 270 (170 - 380)
PM2.5 Chronic obstructive pulmonary
disease 90(60 - 130)
PM2.5 Other respiratory diseases 140 (80 - 190)
O3 Respiratory diseases 120 (30 - 200)
Total 1570 (900 - 2240)
Lifetime impacts
• Running the existing coal plant
fleet to end-of-life would cause
approximately 16,000
avoidable deaths from air
pollution
• Building and operating the
proposed coal plants would
cause a projected 18,000
additional premature deaths,
more than doubling the future
health impacts from coal-fired
power generation 0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
200000
t/a
Emissions from existing coal-fired power plants assuming 40-year operating life
SO2 NOx PM
Key findings from Boom&Bust 2017
• Construction starts of new coal-fired power plants fell 60%
globally in 2016, led by China and India where construction
at more than 100 project sites is now frozen
• Unprecedented amount of coal-fired capacity retired in
2015-2016, led by U.S. and EU
• Three G8 countries committed to coal phase-out in 2016:
UK, France, Canada; Belgium, California and Scotland
became coal-free
• The slowdown brings the possibility of holding global
warming to below 2oC within feasible reach
Countries, states and cities going coal-free
Already phased outBelgiumSwedenCaliforniaOntarioScotlandBeijing
Scheduled to phase outAustriaCanadaDenmarkFinlandFranceNew ZealandPortugalUnited KingdomConnecticutHawaiiMassachusettsNew MexicoNew YorkOregonWashingtonBerlin
Coal-free and mostly renewableCosta Rica
EcuadorEl Salvador
IcelandLatvia
NorwayParaguay
SwitzerlandUruguay
IdahoVermont
Japan is increasingly isolated among
developed countries
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
Japan SouthKorea
Poland Germany Australia UnitedStates
Taiwan Hungary Greece
MW
New coal power project pipeline in January 2017
Announced
Permitting/preparing for permit
Permitted
RE the mainstay of power generation
investments
• Globally, renewable energy use has grown faster than fossil
fuels since 2014
• In U.S. and Europe, majority of new generating capacity is
powered by renewable energy; coal is on the decline
• China’s coal use is falling and all of electricity demand
growth is being covered from non-fossil sources, mainly
renewable energy
• India’s ambitious renewable energy expansion has brought
generating cost of new wind&solar below new coal, radically
altering outlook
Conclusion
• Thoroughly assess cumulative health impacts of energy
decisions
• Improve emissions disclosure (real-time data, yearly
statistics)
• As existing coal plants come due for retirement, Japan has
the opportunity to invest in clean energy and
– Avoid an estimated 18,000 premature deaths from new coal-fired
power plants
– Restore the climate leadership and technological leadership that
Japan displayed in previous decades
