Land use planning: Panacea a Sustainable Lagos Megacity

Land Use Planning: Panacea for a Sustainable Lagos Megacity

Samuel DekoloDepartment of Urban and Regional Planning,

University of Lagos, Nigeria

A 2-Day National Conference in Commemorating UNILAG @ 50

25 – 26 July, 2012Akoka, Lagos Italy

MAKING ROOM FOR THE LAGOS MEGACITY

This presentation examines unplanned spatial expansion of the Lagos Megacity and its sustainability implication.

It examines theoretical underpinnings of land use planning and their applicability in our local context and proposes a holistic land use planning approach for the Megacity’s sustainability.

Leke Oduwaye & S. O. Dekolo, University of Lagos, Nigeria

Presentation Overview

The growth of Lagos like cities in most developing countries is Dynamic, Diverse and Disordered –and spatially intensive. This growth, which is also branded by sprawling developments in peripheral areas has stemmed problems like poverty, climate change, natural resource depletion and diminution of agricultural and ecological and lands.

Peri-urban towns and communities of the city often lack clear planning administration and regulation. Thereby they suffer the worst consequences of urbanization like poverty, lack of infrastructure, lack of tenure, land speculation, pollution, etc.

With its progression into being the third largest megacity in the world in the closest future, these burdens will likely be heavier except proactive planning measures are put in place. It is this vein this presentation proposes land use planning as a panacea for sustainable development of the Lagos Megacity.


Introduction

The year 2008 marked the Dawn of the Urban Millennium; a silent but salient milestone in human history, in which half of humanity, about 3.3 billion now live in urban areas. The figure is expected to increase to 4.9 billion by 2030 with majority of the new urbanites (about 80 percent) living in developing countries of Africa and Asia (UNFPA, 2007).

The Global Urban Trend and Emergence of Megacities



Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2007 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unup,

Thursday May 03, 2012; 11:09:22 AM.


The global trend of urbanisation has led to the formation of large urban agglomerations with a population of 10 million or more known as megacities. In 2007, nineteen (19) megacities were identified in the world and it was projected to reach 27 by 2025 (FIG, 2010).

Locations of the World Megacities


The Lagos Megacity


Lagos is the most populous city in sub-Saharan Africa, with a population of over 12 million people. Furthermore, in 2007, studies by United Nations on World Urbanization Prospects, ranked Lagos 9th among the 28 current and prospective megacities in the world with a standard of living score of 19%.

It is expected to accommodate about 24.4 million people that in 2015 (barely four years away) acquiring the status of the 3rd largest megacity in the world.

The Lagos Megacity

The Megacity region as a continuous built up area spanning over 153,540 hectares of land comprising virtually all the Local Government Areas of Lagos State and four in Ogun State i.e., Sagamu, Owode, Ifo and Ado-Odo/Otta (Redevelopment of Lagos Megacity Region Report, 2006)


Though megacities are engines of economic growth, they have also been saddled by environmental, economic and social burdens. These burdens include growth of slums and informal settlements, unsustainable land use, commuting and traffic problem, climate change arising from energy consumption and greenhouse gases, poverty, urban violence, lack of infrastructure, poor sanitation and food insecurity etc.


Megacity=Mega-problems?



The result of a research survey carried by the FIG Commission 3 to determine city administration problems in seven (7) leading megacities of the world (Hong Kong, Tokyo, Seoul, Istanbul, London, New York and Lagos) reveals that Lagos has the highest challenges.

Problems Lagos (Nigeria) (Q)

Hong Kong SAR (China) (Q) Tokyo (Japan) (Q) Istanbul (Turkey)

(V) London (U.K.) (V) Seoul (Korea) (Q) New York (USA)

(V)

Informal settlements 3 0 1 1 0 0 0

Traffic management

3 2 1 1 1 1 0

Natural hazards 3 0 1 1 1 1 1

Unclear responsibilities and mandates

3 0 0 0 0 0 0

Uncoordinated planning

3 0 0 0 0 -

0

Water management 3 2 1 1 0 0 0

Provision of continuous electrical power

3 0 1 0 0 0 0

Visual pollution and garbage disposal

3 2 1 0 0 0 1

Air and water pollution control

3 2 1 0 1 1 1

Population growth - - - 1 1 - -

*Weight Score - = (No Info.) N=(None)=0 Y /Low=(Low)=1 Y/Med=(Med)=2 Y/High=(High)=3

27/27 100 %

8/27 29.6 %

7/27 25.9 %

5/30 16.7 %

4/30 13.3 %

3/24 12.5 %

3/27 11.1 %

Ranking (magnitude of problems)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7



Since independence in 1960 the city has experienced tremendous spatial and demographic growth which has led to continuous expansion which led to the annexure of rural communities and the loss of forest and agricultural lands to built-up areas.


The spatial and demographic growth of Lagos Megacity

City 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2007 2010 2015 2020

Abuja 23 29 48 77 125 204 330 526 832 1315 1576 1994 2558 2971

Benin City 83 113 163 233 335 480 689 845 975 1124 1190 1302 1520 1755

Ibadan 570 668 809 980 1186 1436 1739 1993 2236 2509 2628 2835 3270 3752

Ilorin 179 222 268 323 389 457 515 580 653 735 771 835 970 1123

Kaduna 99 173 266 408 628 853 961 1083 1220 1375 1442 1560 1807 2083

Kano 229 343 542 855 1350 1861 2095 2360 2658 2993 3140 3393 3914 4487

Lagos 762 1135 1414 1890 2572 3500 4764 5966 7233 8767 9466 10572 12403 14134

Maiduguri 105 156 216 300 416 531 598 673 758 854 896 969 1125 1301

Ogbomosho 247 333 378 428 485 549 622 704 798 904 951 1031 1199 1386

Port Harcourt 135 198 266 358 482 604 680 766 863 972 1020 1104 1280 1479


Population Growth of Lagos


Thursday May 03, 2012; 11:09:22 AM.

Nigerian Cities with Population 750,000 or More in 2007 (1960-2020) (‘000)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 140

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

Abuja 2971

Benin City 1755

Ibadan 3752

Ilorin 1123Kaduna 2083

Kano 4487

Lagos 14134

Maiduguri 1301Ogbomosho 1386Port Harcourt 1479Zaria 1293

Nigerian Cities with Poplation 750,000 or More in 2007

POPU

LATI

ON


Urban Growth of Lagos


Thursday May 03, 2012; 11:09:22 AM.

Urban Growth of Lagos Metropolis

Spatial Expansion of Lagos City (1960-2006)

2006

In 1963, the population was 1.4 Million people with its urban population put at 46% .The following census of 1991 puts its population at 5.6 Million with its urban areas accounting for 92%. This is quite high compared to previous censuses. In the 2006 census, the population rose to 9.1 million with its urban development extending beyond the state boundaries and making it a Megacity and one of the largest conurbations in the world.


How can we ensure sustainability of the city?

Land use changes due to city expansion have serious ecological repercussions and pose a great deal of challenge to environmental sustainability at local and global scales. It is a major driving force of global environmental change, which affects the earth systems.

Prevailing global changes linked to deforestation, desertification, biodiversity loss, food insecurity, climate change, carbon emission etc, are consequences of unsustainable use of land or unsustainable practices.


Land Use + Sustainability Trajectory


Land use planning Land use planning is defined as

the process of protecting and improving the living, production and recreation environment in a city through the proper use and development of land” (Leung, 2003). In other land use planning tries to maximize the potentials of the environment for the use and enjoyment of everyone through decisions and actions on equitable use of land resources.

Sustainable Development

Sustainability was defined by the Bruntland Commission (1987) as the “ability to meet today’s global economic, environmental, social needs without compromising the opportunity for future generations to meet theirs”.


Moreover, due to the overwhelming importance of land use decisions in achieving sustainable development, Chapter 10 of Agenda 21 affirmed that land use planning was essential in achieving an integrated approach to planning and management of land resources.

However, having just concluded Rio+20, how have we been able to transform these policies to realities in our local context?


Land Use Framework

Environmental (Biophysical)

Economic

Social

Institutional

Sustainability Dimensions

Environmental

Economic

Social

Institutional


Land Use + Sustainability Trajectories




Environmental

Economic

Social

Institutional



Environmental

Economic

Social

Institutional




Environmental

Economic

Social

Institutional





Environmental

Economic

Social

Institutional



Land Use Framework


Economic

Social

Institutional

Land Use Framework


Economic

Social

Institutional



Land Use Framework


Economic

Social

Institutional



Land Use Framework


Economic

Social

Institutional





Land Use Framework


Economic

Social

Institutional

How Relevant are Land Use Planning Theories?

Planning theories are the component parts of the discipline. Land use planning theories are those statements, which have gone through empirical test and tend to explain the community, urban or town process by asking these questions: why do communities exists? How has change occur in a place? What are the basic structure and component parts? It also provides a basis for prediction of future growth or trends.


Land Use Planning Theories

There are four well-documented planning processes that emerged before the 1990s which will be reviewed in this chapter; they are the rationalist, incremental, mixed scanning and the systems approach. However, in the post-1990s and the twenty-first century, there have been paradigm shifts these traditional approaches which will be discussed; they are the new urbanism, communicative rationality and Spatial Planning

Overview of Land Use Planning Theories

The New urbanism refers to a design-oriented approach to land use planning and urban development. It is often labeled neo-traditionalism and utopianism because it paints picture of a desirable city, which could obtained through planning.

The new urbanists are inclined towards ‘environmental determinism’ using spatial relations to determine social behaviours and actions. The neighbourhood and community plans are seen as the basic spatial unit of land use planning.


New Urbanism

The Communicative Rationality Theory was developed in the late 1980s by Jurgen Habermas. It is also known as the collaborative model, in which plans are developed through participations, consultations and negotiations; the land use planners’ role is more of a mediator between various stakeholders. The disadvantages of this model are the longer time it takes to reach a consensus and the subjectivity that may prevail through sectional interests of stakeholders rather than basic planning standards (see Feinstein, 2005).

Communicative Rationality

Spatial Planning is a paradigm shift from the traditional land use planning. This concept surpasses the traditional planning by investigating the interaction of different policies and practice across regional space, and sets the role of places in a wider context. It goes well beyond ‘traditional’ land-use planning and sets out a strategic framework to guide future development and policy interventions, whether or not these relate to formal land use planning control.

From Land Use to Spatial Planning

Spatial Planning is an activity centered on making decisions relating to the location and distribution of land use activities; it is aimed at the utilization of land resources in a planned and organized manner to meet the needs of the present and future generation, thereby ensuring sustainable development .

A spatial planning framework will include the overall strategy to be adopted by the public sector to influence the distribution of people and activities in spaces of various scales (local, regional, national). It includes urban growth management, land use planning, urban planning, regional planning, transport planning, social planning, economic planning, community planning and environment planning.

Spatial Planning Contd.

How Can We Achieve Sustainability by Land Use Planning?

Sustainable land use planning relies on timely and accurate information on the existing land use and land cover pattern and its distribution over time and space. Questions the land use planner must answer from land use inventory studies will be: what used to be and what is (An understanding the past and present situation)? What should be (A probe into future requirements)? This will lead to the answer of the question how it should be (Preparing the plan)?


Requisites for Sustainable Land Use Planning

Sustainable land use planning requires information on land-cover and land-use; these are two different concepts that has become a central component in current strategies for managing natural resources and monitoring environmental change

Use of GIS and Remote Sensing techniques can he very handy in closing this gap.

However, what is the level of GIS implementation and the Spatial Data Infrastructure in Lagos?

What happened to LAGIS?


Probing into the Past and Present

Through land use modeling techniques, estimations and projections can be made. This will provide a foreknowledge of possible consequences of land used decisions and proposals.

Whatever is foreseen through our techno-scope and spatial standards, people participation in determining the future assessment is necessary, so that we do not prepare plans that meets wants rather than need.

As much as we provide the technical knowledge needed in estimating what is required, there must be negotiations and consensus reached amongst all stakeholders.


Probe into Future Requirements

There is slant in our land use planning, which seem to have relapsed to “mere physical planning”. This is because we have equated land use planning to physical planning and development control. The old traditions of environmental and physical determinism imbedded in our designs without recourse to social, cultural and polity has made our plans a mere blueprint for the archives (eg. the Lagos Metropolitan Master Plan and the Regional Plan, 1980-2000). Leke Oduwaye & S. O. Dekolo,

University of Lagos, Nigeria

Preparing the Plan

Land use planners in Sub-Saharan African countries may have to learn from their counterparts from Europe and other western countries, where there is a paradigm shift from the traditional land use planning to Spatial Planning.

This concept surpasses the traditional planning by investigating the interaction of different policies and practice across regional space, and sets the role of places in a wider context. It goes well beyond ‘traditional’ land-use planning and sets out a strategic framework to guide future development and policy interventions, whether or not these relate to formal land use planning control.


Conclusion

It is also suggested that the land use planners be re-trained on the concepts of spatial planning that is holistic in making decisions relating to the location and distribution of land use activities; it is aimed at the utilization of land resources in a planed and organized manner to meet the needs of the present and future generation, thereby ensuring sustainable development

There is need for timely and accurate data management of land based resources in our cities, there is need for SDI to be put in place to encourage data sharing in our cities.

There is need for implementation of spatial technologies in government agencies responsible for environmental management and city management.


Recommendations and Policy Implications

A well informed land use decision will enhance sustainable development.

Thank You

I.I.C. Nwokoro & S. O. Dekolo, University of Lagos, Nigeria

A Final Word