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Making Emissions Inventories Comparable and Useful | Sebastian Carney
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Making Emissions Inventories Comparable and Useful
Dr. Sebastian CarneyCarbon Captured Ltd
Agenda
• Options• PESTLE• MoSCoW• Past Inventories• Focus• Let’s Look at Scotland• Energy plans• Scrumcasting
Options
• Do nothing• Estimate• Use bottom up data
PESTLE
• Political – Be first• Economic – Potential for savings• Social – Local requirements • Technological – Potential for implementation• Legislative – Requirement to produce• Environmental – Measure progress
MoSCoW
• Must haves– An ordered list of what is in and what is out– The emissions factors used– The data sources– Recognition of risks– Descriptive statistics– The Activity data
MoSCoW
• Should haves– Consistent Reporting Format– How the data sources have been measured– Uncertainty of emissions factors and data sources– Executive summaries – Different representations for different audiences.– Analysis – Energy Potential Data– Empowerment – internalize it, it really isn’t too
difficult.
MoSCoW
• Could haves– Energy Potential Data– Driver data – age of housing stock– Economic & demographic statistics– Mapping of Emissions Sources– Comparisons with other areas– Identification for the reasons for the size of
emissions – eg Athens vs Oslo
MoSCoW
• Won’t have– Solutions– Measurements – rather they are estimations– Perfect comparability
Past Inventories
Athens
Bologna
Brusse
ls
Frankfu
rt
Glasgo
w
Hamburg
Helsinki
Ljublja
na
Madrid
Napoli
Oslo Paris
Porto
Rotterdam
Stockh
olm
Stuttga
rtTu
rin
Veneto
0.00
10,000.00
20,000.00
30,000.00
40,000.00
50,000.00
60,000.00
Level 3Level 2Level 1
Electricity Emissions Factors
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
Athens
Brussel
s
Frankfu
rt
Hamburg
Helsinki
Ljublja
na
Madrid
Napoli
OsloPari
sPorto
Rotterdam
Stock
holm
Stuttga
rtTu
rin
Veneto
Electricity Emissions Factor
Electricity Emissions Factor
Focus
• Think about– where we are going – rather than where we have been
• On what we know • What changes we can implement• What does a 80% reduction refer to?– Total emissions– 2050 is an indicator rather than a scientific
baseline
Let’s look at Scotland
• Emissions inventory• Energy potential • Independence– IPCC Reporting Standards– Impact on rest of UK
Scotland’s Energy Potential
• 25% of Europe’s tidal potential• 10% of Europe’s wave potential• 25% of Europe’s off shore wind potential
Energy Plans
• Avoid basic errors – Consumption and Demand– Peak Demand
• Electrification of heat and transport
– Upkeep/maintenance, life span– Future value of money (eg payback periods)– Wider systems context – network capability– Risk attitude of intermittency– Human Capital– Robbing ‘Peter to pay Paul’– Include the system outside of the region– But remember a transition can not be managed!
Consumption and Demand
UK Demand
Brattle Model, GB Electricity Demand – realising the resource, Brattle Group, 2012
Retrofitting Example
• 99% Reduction by 2050, mostly by 2040– Mostly through efficiency– So let’s say every home to 80% (heat energy)
• 6 ‘Professional Retrofitters’ – Builders• 6 weeks• 1 project manager per ten homes• 10 days redecorating• 1 day removal and reinstall• +20% tolerance for illness/slippage• 25 days holiday a year • 1 million people
Scrumcasting - GRIP
• Similar to backcasting• Product focused – Energy Scenario• Bring together users and suppliers• A referee • Identify interfaces• Have a focus – end goal• Identify roles, responsibilities, potentials, errors,
obstacles, tolerances, scales, timeframes.
An example session
A Selection of Scenarios
A Selection of Scenarios
To Summarise
• Establish what you can do – focus on end goals• Be mindful of potential future applications
(PESTLE)• Engage stakeholders in development• Present data consistently (& uncertainty)• Be clear in energy plans – finance, systems• Use to build capacity• Scrumcast!
