Upload
oecd-environment
View
240
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
9/27/2013 - No more than one trillion metric tons of carbon could be burned and gases released into the atmosphere if planetary warming is to be kept below 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius) above the level of preindustrial times.
9/27/2013 - It’s still possible to avoid the worst climate impacts if global emissions to peak by 2020 at the latest (and the earlier the better), with substantial declines in emissions afterwards.
One trillion tons
2020
1950
0
1oC
2000 2200 2150 2100 2050
RCP8.5 Business-as-usual 2.2 trillion tons carbon
3oC
2oC
8oC
7oC
6oC
5oC
4oC
RCP6.0 emissions peak 2080 1.6 trillion tons carbon
RCP4.5 emissions peak 2040-50 1.3 trillion tons carbon
Incr
ease
in A
vera
ge G
loba
l Tem
pera
ture
Global Temperature Projections for various RCP Scenarios Source: IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, 2013, Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)
2013
1950
0
1oC
2000 2200 2150 2100 2050
3oC
2oC
8oC
7oC
6oC
5oC
4oC
RCP2.6 0.8 trillion tons carbon emissions peak 2020
Incr
ease
in A
vera
ge G
loba
l Tem
pera
ture
Global Temperature Projections for various RCP Scenarios Source: IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, 2013, Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)
2013
RCP8.5 Business-as-usual 2.1 trillion tons carbon
RCP6.0 emissions peak 2080 1.4 trillion tons carbon
RCP4.5 emissions peak 2040-50 1.2 trillion tons carbon
THE OPPORTUNITY
Urban environments emit 75% of all global GHGs
will be constructed in cities worldwide. of new and rebuilt buildings
Sources: UN Habitat, State of the World’s Cities 2010/2011; McKinsey Global Institute.
THE OPPORTUNITY
80 billion m2 (900 billion ft2)
By 2030, over
Sources: UN Habitat, State of the World’s Cities 2010/2011; McKinsey Global Institute.
An area equal to 60% of the entire building stock of the world,
60% with energy and emissions patterns
locked-in for 80 to 120 years!
China US / Canada Other Emerging
% S
hare
of G
row
th
30%
20%
10%
Global Floor Space Growth (2012 – 2030) Source: McKinsey Global Institute, Urban World: Cities and the rise of the consuming class, 2012.
India Latin America
Middle East Africa
38%
15%
12%
9% 9% 9%
China • US/Canada
53%
Western Europe
Other Developed
4% 4%
2015
2020
COP 21
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
+5% to -15%
-70% to -85%
-55% to -70%
-35% to -55%
-15% to -35%
ZERO
ROADMAP TO ZERO EMISSIONS
CO2 EMISSIONS TARGETS (baseline 2015)
-85% to -100%
1. Developed Countries (annual) Renovate 1% - 2% of building stock 50% energy reduction
2. Developing Countries (annual) Renovate .5% - 1% of building stock 50% energy reduction
4. Establish Financing Facility (Developing Countries)
Finance items 2 and 3 above.
3. Build New to the Following Targets (All Countries)
70% energy reduction in 2015 80% energy reduction in 2020 90% energy reduction in 2025 ZNE in 2030
ROADMAP TO ZERO EMISSIONS
2020 emissions peak
Reduction targets range
RCP2.6 1500
2000
1000 CO
2 EM
ISSI
ON
S
(mill
ion
met
ric to
ns)
0
500
2080 2070 2060 2050 2040 2030
ROADMAP 20/80: Building Sector Zero CO2 Emissions in 2080
2020 2000 2010
emissions 2000 - 2015
2015
Source: Architecture 2030: Data adapted from the World Bank CO2 emissions from residential buildings and commercial and public services; and the EIA International Energy Outlook 2013.
2500
ROADMAP
Global Building Sector
3000
3500
PROGRESS?
2007
Sec. 433 of EISA
Fossil Fuel Reduction 55% - 2010 65% - 2015 80% - 2020 90% - 2025 100% - 2030
Seattle
Zero Net Energy for Residential Buildings by 2020 Zero Net Energy for Commercial Buildings by 2030
CALIFORNIA’S COMMITMENT
Unique private/public partnerships
! Property owners and managers
! Local governments
! Business/community stakeholders
• SEATTLE • CLEVELAND • PITTSBURGH • LOS ANGELES • DENVER
TORONTO DALLAS
DETROIT
FT. WORTH
PHOENIX SAN ANTONIO
SAN FRANCISCO WASHINGTON, DC SYRACUSE
ITHICA
ANN ARBOR ATLANTA
ALBUQUERQUE STAMFORD
EIA AEO 2013
48
44
36 (908 Mtoe)
52
QBtu Quadrillion Btu
Source: Architecture 2030, U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook (EIA AEO)!U.S. Building Operations 2005 - 2030
-16.8 QBtu
40 (1008 Mtoe)
EIA AEO 2014
(early release)
310 – 1000MW
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
56 (1412 Mtoe)
EIA AEO 2013
48
44
36 (908 Mtoe)
52
QBtu Quadrillion Btu
Source: Architecture 2030, U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook (EIA AEO)!U.S. Building Operations 2005 - 2030
-16.8 QBtu
40 (1008 Mtoe)
EIA AEO 2013 best available demand technology
EIA AEO 2014
(early release)
-6.9 QBtu
310 – 1000MW
128 – 1000MW
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
56 (1412 Mtoe)
EIA AEO 2013
48
44
36 (908 Mtoe)
52
QBtu Quadrillion Btu
Source: Architecture 2030, U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook (EIA AEO)!U.S. Building Operations 2005 - 2030
-16.8 QBtu
40 (1008 Mtoe)
2013
$4.61 Trillion
$560 Billion
$1.94 Trillion EIA AEO 2013
best available demand technology
EIA AEO 2014
(early release)
-6.9 QBtu
310 – 1000MW
128 – 1000MW
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
56 (1412 Mtoe)
Sustainable / Zero Carbon
URBANIZATION
Step 2.
Step 1.
GETTING TO ZERO CARBON
ZERO CARBON
Information
Technology
Renewables 20%-30%
Step 1.
Step 2.
GETTING TO ZERO CARBON
ZERO CARBON
Design & Planning • Sustainable • Adaptable 70%-80% (no cost / low cost)
INFORMATION GAP • Highly technical
• Compartmentalized • Limited applicability
• Limited audience • Inaccessible format
Bridge the GAP
• Global in scope • Local in application
• User friendly / visual
• Freely accessible • Interconnected across all scales
• Mitigation / adaptation
REGION
CITY / TOWN
DISTRICT SITE
BUILDING
Bridge the GAP
2030 Palette www.2030palette.org