THE ROLE OF THEDIET AS A KEY TO FEED THE FUTURE

P O L I T E C N I C O D I M I L A N OE N V I R O N M E N TA L & L A N D P L A N N I N G E N G I N E E R I N G

W AT E R & F O O D S E C U R I T Y C O U R S E ( A . Y . 1 6 / 1 7 )

M A R I A J O S E A R R E B O L A M O N T E A G U D OA N D R E S J O S E C U B E R L IP O OYA N M I R H E I D A R I

THE ROLE OF THEDIET AS A KEY TO FEED THE FUTURE

T W O R E P O R T S1 . M O D E R AT I N G D I E T T O F E E D T H E F U T U R E

( Ky l e f . D a v i s , P a o l o D ’ O d o r i c o , a n d M a r i a C r i s t i n a R u l l i )

2 . H U M A N A P P R O P I AT I O N O F L A N D F O R F O O D : T H E R O L E O F D I E T

( Pe t e r A l e x a n d e r, C a l u m B r o w n , A l m u t A r n e t h , J o h n F i n n i g a n )

SCENARIO BASED OF LASTREPORTS WE HAVE SEEN: Population will reach the maximumin approx. 100 years

SOME SOLUTIONS WHEREPROPOSSED

• Demand

- Democratic transition model

- Changing diet

• Supply

- Closing gaps in agriculture(efficiency)

- Increase production (i.e more land cultivated)

- MGO

- expanding aquaculture

- reducing waste

- …..

BUT… WHAT HAS BEEN DONE UNTIL NOW?

WHAT EXTEND HAVE THESE SOLUTIONS?

IT IS POSSIBLE TO DRIVE THEM FROM THEORY TO PRACTISE TO STOP THE INEVITABLE FUTURE?

TRADITIONAL APPROACH: ROLE OF TECHNOLOGY

FOOD SYSTEM TECHNOLOGY- Closing yield gaps

- Increase land

DEMAND

FUTURE SCENARIO

FOOD SYSTEM

Populationgrowth

Biofueldemand

waste Dietdemand

DEMAND?

WHAT CAN BE “?”

Combination of1. Agricultural intensification2. Increasing resource use efficiency and sustanability

3. Reducing food waste4. Moderating diets

MODERATING DIET TO FEEDTHE FUTURE REPORT

Analyse yield gap closures with different scenarios of diet and biofuel use on meeting current and future

demand• Considerations of the study:

- Different diets’ requirement

(conversion from plant to animal calories )

- Domestic crop production (self-sufficiency country scale )

- Gap closures for 16 major food crops

- Moderate diet as 3.000kcal/cap/d 20% animal

RESULTS• SCENARIO 1: year 2003

DEMAND+3.94 BP

Production(complete

yield gap closure)

FOOD SYSTEM

Populationgrowth

Biofueldemand

waste Dietdemand

RESULTS• SCENARIO II: year 2030

DEMAND- 1.23 BP

Production(complete

yield gap closure)

FOOD SYSTEM

Populationgrowth

Biofueldemand

waste Dietdemand

RESULTS• SCENARIO III: year 2030

DEMAND- 0.23 BP

Production(complete

yield gap closure)

FOOD SYSTEM

Populationgrowth

Biofueldemand

wasteGlobal

AdequateDiet

RESULTS• SCENARIO IV: year 2050

FOOD SYSTEM

Populationgrowth

Biofueldemand

wasteGlobal

AdequateDiet

DEMANDProduction(completyield gap closure)

COMBINATION OF SOLUTIONS

T H E ROL E OF D I ET : D I FFEREN CES AN D

REQU I REMEN T SW H Y T H E D I E T I S A K E Y P O I N T I N M E E T I N G D E M A N D ?

HUMAN APPROPRIATION

OF L AND FOR FOOD

T H E R O L E O F D I E T

INCREASE IN DIETS REQUIRE LAND AND WATER

HOW PAST AND PRESENT DEVELOPMENTS IN DIET IMPACT ON GLOBAL AGRICULTURAL LAND USE

•Rising in population

•Changing the diet

CHANGING THE DIET

• Increase wealth•Urbanisation

•Globalising food commodity markets

INCREASING WEALTH• Consuming commodities that are more

land intensive

• EXAMPLE :

•Meat

•Milk

CHANGING DIETS HAVE HUMAN HEALTH & ENVIRONMENTALIMPACTS• Loss of previous land cover

• Biodiversity loss

• GHG emission ( 10% of anthropogenic CO2 emissions)

• Rising global rates of obesity

• Contributes to associated disease

• EXAMPLE : diabetes and heart attacks

THERE ARE METHODS TO MEASURETHE IMPACT•HALF•NATIONAL LAND FOOTPRINT

• FCR

HALF INDEX•Expresses the land area required for the global population to consume a particular diet

FCR FEED CONVERSION RATIO

• Estimates the animal feed requirement

Express in terms of dry matter of feed per animal live weight

NATIONAL LAND FOOTPRINTSCALCULATES

•Based on domestic production

• Land displaced through international trade

National land footprint

Same as HALFIMPORTS

AND EXPORTS

METHOD

ALLOCATING AREAS FOR FOOD COMMODITIES•Three categories of use• Food for human consumption

•Animal feed •Non-food related uses

MULTIPLE COMMODITIES PRODUCE FROM A SINGLE CROP• Processed oil crop areas were divided equally between the resulting

oil

food and biofuel

• Seed meals or cakes livestock feed

ALLOCATING AREAS FOR ANIMAL FEED AND PASTUREMONOGASTRICLIVESTOCK

• Poultry – pigs

• Solely from feed

RUMINANT ANIMALS

• Cattle – sheep

• Feed and grazed pasture

IN THE ABSENCE OF PRODUCTION INTENSIFICATION

• The average energy consumed per capita globally is 11.9 MJ/person/day, while in the USA the average is 16.6 MJ/person/day, i.e. 40% more. Therefore, if the current global profile commodities remained unchanged, but the energy consumed increased to that of the USA, 40% more land would be required for production,

RESULTS

EXAMPLE• Total agricultural area in 2011 4484 mha

• Cropland 871 mha

• Animal products 3700 mha( 497 mha for cropland/ 3203 mha pasture)

• Remaining cropland was used for biofuels

• HALF index 35.1

DIFFERENCES IN HALF VALUES IN DIFFERENT COUNTRIES

• Example :

• The global adoption of the diet in the USA would require over 6 times the agricultural area that adoption of the diet in India, with a HALF index of 97.7 compared to India’s

HIGHEST AND LOWEST HALF VALUESHIGHEST

• New Zealand, Argentina , Australia

• 135.8 , 114.9 , 112.2

LOWEST

• Mozambique , Liberia , Bangladesh

• Bellow 11.5

T H E G LOBAL AG RI CU LT U RAL

L AN D REQU I RED H AS I N CREASED BY 8 .7 % D U E T O

D I ETARY CH AN G ES,

EXAMPLE

• The land required for the diet in Brazil more than doubled between 1961 and 2011, from 43.5 to 88.2, making it the eleventh highest ranked country globally in 2011. However, the Chinese diet’s HALF increased nearly 5-times, from 6.0 in 1961 (the lowest at that period), to 28.6 (but still below the global average).

DIETARY LAND REQUIREMENT HAVE BEEN FALLING IN USA , UK

• Falling proportional nutrients from animal products

• Shift in the mix of animal products consumed

• Even though protein and energy consumption continue to rise

INCREASE THE USE OF VEGETAL OILS• In USA from 9.6% in 1961 to 19.2% by 2011

• Over 55% increase in energy consumed in USA

• Other sweeteners for 26%

• Poultry meat for 18% rise

LOWER HALF IN CHINA COMPARED TO ITS GLOBAL VALUES

• High rate of monogastric animal consumption

• Lower land requirement

• Lower feed conversion

RISE IN GLOBAL HALF IS ALSO MODEST• Consumption of bovine meat is constant

• Consumption of poultry and pig meat had substantial rise

• From 1961 to 2011

• Poultry : 399% rise

• Pig : 91% rise

HALF IS: HOW MUCH EARTH WOULD WE NEED IF WE ADOPT … DIET

AS A % OF WORLD TOTAL LAND (13’009 MHA)

S O WHY?S O M E N AT I O N S R E Q U I R E M O R E L A N D T H A N OT H E R S

MORE DENSE POPULATION, LESS LAND FOR CULTIVES

HALF (%) DEPENDS ON…DENSITY?

HALF (%) DEPENDS ON…AVAILABLE LAND?

HALF (%) DEPENDS ON…HECTARES PER PERSON?

•CULTURE

•HISTORY

•CLIMATE

•FARMING TECHNOLOGIES

•GROSS DOMESTIC PROD.

•INTERNATIONAL TRADE

UNCERTAINTIES IN MODEL

GRASS-FEDCOUNTRIES

HIGH YIELDCOUNTRIES

ESTIMATEDFCR’S

WHAT WE EAT IS MORE IMPORTANT THAT HOW MUCH

BUT THERE ARE OTHERS FACTORS…

FOOD INTAKE WASTE BIO-

ENERGYCONSUMPTION

INEQUALITIESFOOD INTAKE

FOOD INTAKE WASTE BIO-

ENERGYCONSUMPTION

HOW MUCH?WASTE

EXCESS

FOOD INTAKE WASTE BIO-

ENERGYCONSUMPTION

COMPETITION FOR LANDBIO-ENERGY

FOOD

ENERGY

FORESTRY

13’000 MHa (Millions of hectares)Including snow-covered areas, deserts, urbanised, …)

4’484 MHa

IT’S POSSIBLE TO BRING THE THEORY TO THE PRACTICE?

ARE WE WILLING TO CHANGE?

TRIVIA

T I M E

I T ’ S

H AV E A LO O KINTO NATURE

Incisors + Canines = 12

Incisors = 8 à 65%

Canines = 4 à 35%

• 3000 kCal/day @ 20% animal protein

(according to ‘Moderating Diets…’paper)

• Reduce waste as much as possible

(Remember war & scarcity times!)

• Don’t eat exagerately(Remember “Gluttony” deadly-sin in Occ. culture)

KEY IS ON BALANCE