Stephanie Cairns, Member, Alberta Climate Leadership Panel

Alberta’s new climate policy and opportunities/challenges for harmonization

Stephanie CairnsJune 22, 2016North American Climate Policy Forum

Credit: Amber Bracken/ The Canadian Press

Premier Notley Launches Alberta Climate Plan with leaders from industry, environmental, and health sectors. November 2015

2007 Specified Gas Emitters Regulation for Large Final EmittersOutput based intensity standard12% reduction in GHG intensity compared to historic baseline

Compliance options: $15/t payment into an Alberta technology fund/ Alberta offsets/ Alberta credits

15% 201620% 2017

$20/t 2016$30/t 2017

Make climate change

enough that even Trump would act

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1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Emission

s (Mt C

O2e)

Alberta Historic and Forecast Emissions

Historic

2014 Trends

Draft 2015 Trends

2014 Emissions Trends uses 2013 NEB reference production forecast

2015 Emissions Trends uses draft 2015 NEB reference production forecast

Oilsands 2030

•A “carbon competitive” energy industry in a global context

•Cleaner and less carbon intensive electricity generation

•More efficient use of energy across the economy, in buildings, homes and transportation

Alberta Climate Leadership Plan:Three main thrusts

Incentives can steer the market

Oil Sands 22%

Other Oil and Gas 23%

Electricity 17%

Other Industry, Manufacturing, & Construction

9%

Agriculture, Forestry, & Waste 9%

Transportation11%

Buildings and Houses9%

Alberta 2013 emissions: 267 MT (37% National Emissions)

Economy‐wide coverageCarbon levy extended to transportation and fuels$20/t 2016$30/t 2017


Oil Sands 22%


Electricity 17%


9%


Transportation11%


Alberta 2013 emissions: 267 MT (37% National Emissions) LFE shift to

output based performance standardsJan.2018 SGER coverts to Carbon Competitiveness Regulation: Sector‐specific output based performance standards, based on best quartile of performance in sector.Compliance options unchanged

Source: Canada’s Eco‐Fiscal Commission


Oil Sands 22%


Electricity 17%


9%


Transportation11%


Alberta 2013 emissions: 267 MT (37% National Emissions) 2030 Coal

phase‐outNegotiated shut down of ~6 plants on top of 12 plants already affected by federal coal regs & provincial air regs

2/3 of retired coal will be replaced with renewable power, through a clean power call

Final generation mix 2/3 natural gas, 1/3 renewables


Oil Sands 22%


Electricity 17%


9%


Transportation11%


Alberta 2013 emissions: 267 MT (37% National Emissions) 100 MT

cap on oil sands30 MT headroom above current emissions

Implementation still TBD


Oil Sands 22%


Electricity 17%


9%


Transportation11%


Alberta 2013 emissions: 267 MT (37% National Emissions) 45%

reduction in CH4emissions by 202514 MT, cost <$30/t

Eligible for offsets to 2020;

Regulations take effect post 2020


Oil Sands 22%


Electricity 17%


9%


Transportation11%


Alberta 2013 emissions: 267 MT (37% National Emissions)

Energy Efficiency AgencyFirst concerted energy efficiency programming in province

Stand alone utility model dictated by structure of Alberta electricity market

Renewables, bioenergy, technology ,

35%

Green infrastructure (transit), 23%Energy

efficiency, 7%

ates low middle come seholds, 24%

1% cut small business tax rate , 9%

support for vulnerable

communities, 2%

Use of Carbon Levy revenue: $9.6 B/5 years

Stephanie Cairns

Director, Sustainable CommunitiesSustainable [email protected]

sustainableprosperity.ca

Environment

Stephanie Cairns, Member, Alberta Climate Leadership Panel