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Analysis of the Current Energy Situation for GMS Countries
Effective energy efficiency policy implementation targeting “New Modern Energy CONsumers” in the Greater Mekong Subregion
ByAssociate Prof. Dr. Pham Hoang Luong
Dr. Nguyen Thi Mai AnhDr. Do Tien Minh
International Dissemination Workshop17 September 2015, Bangkok
Funded by UK Research Councils’ Energy Program, the department for International Development (DFID) and the Department for Energy and Climate Change (DECC), and managed by the Engineering and
Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC)
Analysis of the Current Energy Situation for GMS Countries
Effective energy efficiency policy implementation targeting “New Modern Energy CONsumers” in the Greater Mekong Subregion
ContentsDescription of Task 1Analysis ResultsSome Key Findings and Conclusions
Description of Task 1
Effective energy efficiency policy implementation targeting “New Modern Energy CONsumers” in the Greater Mekong Subregion
Objectives: To obtain baseline information and an assessment of the currentenergy situation for GMS countries
Subtask 1.1: To analyze historical development of energy consumption and energy efficiency for GMS countries
Subtask 1.2: To project energy demand with special focus on new modern energy consumers using LEAP model
Subtask 1.3: To analyze energy data at the end-user level to see the data availability for setting baselines
Analysis Results
Effective energy efficiency policy implementation targeting “New Modern Energy CONsumers” in the Greater Mekong Subregion
1. Historical development of energy demand in GMS countries1.1 Energy consumption at national level
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KTOE
Cambodia Laos Myanmar Thailand Vietnam
Figure 1: Total final energy consumption by GMS countriesSource: (MECON Project Team Report, 2013)
Analysis Results
Effective energy efficiency policy implementation targeting “New Modern Energy CONsumers” in the Greater Mekong Subregion
1. Historical development of energy demand1.1 Energy consumption at national level
Figure 2: Share of sectoral energy consumption in GMS countriesSource: (IEA, 2014) and (MECON Project Laos Team’s Report, 2014)
* Data for Cambodia is available from 1995 only
0%
10%
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30%
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100%
1990 2010 1990 2010 1990 2010 1990 2010 1990 2010
Cambodia Laos Myanmar Thailand Vietnam
Agriculture Commercial Industry Residential Transport
Analysis Results
Effective energy efficiency policy implementation targeting “New Modern Energy CONsumers” in the Greater Mekong Subregion
1. Historical development of energy demand1.1 Energy consumption at national level
Figure 3: Share of fuel mix in GMS countriesSource: (IEA, 2014) and (MECON Project Laos Team Report, 2014)
* Data for Cambodia is available from 1995 only
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
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100%
1990 2010 1990 2010 1990 2010 1990 2010 1990 2010
Cambodia Laos Myanmar Thailand Vietnam
Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Geothermal Biofuels and waste Electricity Heat
Analysis Results
Effective energy efficiency policy implementation targeting “New Modern Energy CONsumers” in the Greater Mekong Subregion
1. Historical development of energy demand1.2 Energy consumption at household’s level
Figure 4: Household’s energy consumption in GMS countriesSource: (IEA, 2014) and (MECON Project Laos Team Report, 2014)
* Data for Cambodia is available from 1995 only
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Cambodia Laos Myanmar Thailand Vietnam
Analysis Results
Effective energy efficiency policy implementation targeting “New Modern Energy CONsumers” in the Greater Mekong Subregion
1. Historical development of energy demand1.2 Energy consumption at household’s level
Figure 5: Share of household’s energy consumption by fuel in GMS countriesSource: (IEA, 2014) and (MECON Project Laos Team Report, 2014)
* Data for Cambodia is available from 1995 only
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1990 2010 1990 2010 1990 2010 1990 2010 1990 2010
Cambodia Laos Myanmar Thailand Vietnam
%
Coal Oil product Natrural Gas Bio-fuels and waste Electricity
Analysis Results
Effective energy efficiency policy implementation targeting “New Modern Energy CONsumers” in the Greater Mekong Subregion
1. Historical development of energy demand1.2 Energy consumption at household’s level
Figure 6: Electricity consumption in GMS countriesSource: (IEA, 2014) and (MECON Project Laos Team Report, 2014)
* Data for Cambodia is available from 1995 only
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Cambodia Laos Myanmar Thailand Vietnam
Analysis Results
Effective energy efficiency policy implementation targeting “New Modern Energy CONsumers” in the Greater Mekong Subregion
1. Historical development of energy demand1.2 Energy consumption at household’s level
Figure 7: Share of household’s electricity consumption in total national electricity consumption in GMS countries
Source: (IEA, 2014) and (MECON Project Laos Team Report, 2014)* Data for Cambodia is available from 1995 only
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Cambodia Laos Myanmar Thailand Vietnam
Analysis Results
Effective energy efficiency policy implementation targeting “New Modern Energy CONsumers” in the Greater Mekong Subregion
2. Status of Energy Efficiency in GMS countries2.1 Energy intensity at national level
Figure 8: Energy intensities of the GMS countriesSource: (MECON Project Team Report, 2014)
* Data for Cambodia is available from 1995 only
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TOE/000' USD2005 PPP
Cambodia Laos Myanmar Thailand Vietnam
Analysis Results
Effective energy efficiency policy implementation targeting “New Modern Energy CONsumers” in the Greater Mekong Subregion
2. Status of Energy Efficiency2.2. Energy efficiency at household’s level
Figure 9: Household’s energy consumption per capita GMS countriesSource: (IEA, 2014) and (MECON Project Laos Team Report, 2014)
* Data for Cambodia is available from 1995 only
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KgOE per capita
Cambodia Laos Myanmar Thailand Vietnam
Analysis Results
Effective energy efficiency policy implementation targeting “New Modern Energy CONsumers” in the Greater Mekong Subregion
2. Status of Energy Efficiency2.2. Energy efficiency at household’s level
Figure 10: Household’s electricity consumption per capita GMS countriesSource: (IEA, 2014) and (MECON Project Laos Team Report, 2014)
* Data for Cambodia is available from 1995 only
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KWh per capita
Cambodia Laos Myanmar Thailand Vietnam
Analysis Results
Effective energy efficiency policy implementation targeting “New Modern Energy CONsumers” in the Greater Mekong Subregion
2. Status of Energy Efficiency2.3 Energy efficiency targets and policies• All GMS countries have taken steps to improve energy efficiency. The
range of adopted policies and measures vary among those countries:- All GMS countries have energy efficiency policies and strategies- Limited application of MEPS in Thailand and Vietnam- Energy label is mandatory for some products in Thailand and
Vietnam but volunteer in other countries- Except Thailand, ESCOs have not been established in remaining
countries• Barriers to Energy Efficiency improvement are:
- Narrow focus (without consideration of economy-wide impacts)- Lesser role for mandatory measures, incentives and practical implementation
- Distortion of energy price caused by cross-subsidy - Lack of awareness and expertise
Analysis Results
Effective energy efficiency policy implementation targeting “New Modern Energy CONsumers” in the Greater Mekong Subregion
4. Availability of energy data for setting baselineData Cambodia Laos Myanmar Thailand Vietnam
International Domestic International Domestic International
Domestic International Domestic International Domestic
GDP IEA UNESCAP IEA IEA IEA GSO
Population IEA LSB IEA WB IEA GSO
Family size LSB NESDP GSO
Poverty rate LSB WB GSO
Private consumption UNESCAP WB GSO
Energy consumption IEA MEM IEA IEA
Electricity consumption IEA MEM IEA IEA
Electrification rate MEM WB EVN
EE of Appliances Survey
Rate of EE appliances Survey
Energy consumed by appliances
Survey
Some Key findings and Conclusions
Effective energy efficiency policy implementation targeting “New Modern Energy CONsumers” in the Greater Mekong Subregion
• GMS countries have experienced:- a sharp increase in energy consumption which are driven by economic growth, population growth, industrialization, urbanization and change in people’s living style. - a big change in the way that the energy was used, both fuel structure and energy-efficient technology application
• For the same reasons mentioned above, GMS countries will continue to face the increase in energy demand in the future. If these no appropriate policy measure taken place, this would invite some big challenges including insecurity of energy supply , environmental pollutions and socio-economic problems
• There are many opportunities and rooms for Energy efficiency improvement in GMS countries. The range of adopted policies and measures include regulations, market-based and financial instruments, and information and awareness measures.
• There is a need for regular updating energy data through surveys and statistical data collection system