THE FRAMEWORK OF GLOBAL DISASTER

RESILIENCY IN THE CONTEXT OF

21ST CENTURY REALITIES

A FOCUS ON

ACTIONS IN 2015 THAT WILL

ACCELERATE

THE TRANSITION FROM THE

PAST 14 YEARS OF GLOBAL

DISASTER PRONENESS

TO

GLOBAL DISASTER RESILIENCE

BY 2020

THE CHALLENGE OF OUR

TIME IN THE 21ST CENTURY

• Protecting and

preserving

PEOPLE and

COMMUNITIES

from the potential

disaster agents of

natural hazards

A SNAPHOT OF OUR WORLD

• 7+ billion people, and growing while…

• Living and competing in an

interconnected global economy,

• Producing $60 trillion+ of products each

year, and

• Facing complex disasters every year that

cause $multi-billions in losses and reduce

a community’s 3 S’s, 5 E’s, and 1 H.

THE 3 S’s

• SAFETY (loss of

life and function

from the potential

disaster agents of

natural hazards

that kill and injure

and disrupt the

lives of tens of

millions each year)

THE 3 S’s (CONTINUED)

• SECURITY (loss of

homes and jobs)

• SUSTAINABILITY

(loss of national

GDP, global

competiveness,

and overall

staying power)

THE FIVE E’s

• ECONOMY

• ENERGY

• ENVIRONMENT

• ECOLOGY

• EDUCATION

THE H

• HEALTH (A state

of complete,

physical, mental,

and social well

being; NOT merely

the absence of

disease or

infirmity, WHO)

A DISASTER is ---

--- the set of failures that occur when

three continuums: 1) people, 2)

community (i.e., a set of habitats,

livelihoods, and social constructs),

and 3) recurring events (e.g., floods,

earthquakes, ...,) intersect at a point in

space and time, when and where the

people and community are not ready.

THE THREE CONTINUUMS OF

EVERY DISASTER

• PEOPLE

• COMMUNITY

• RECURRING EVENTS (AKA the potential disaster agents

of Natural Hazards, which are proof

of a DYNAMIC EARTH)

INTER-CONNECTED WEAK-LINKS

CAUSE DISASTERS

• UN--PREPARED

• UN—PROTECTED

• UN--WARNED

• UN--ABLE TO RESPOND

• UN—ABLE TO RECOVER

LIKELY CAUSES OF COMPLEX DISASTERS

DURING THE 21ST CENTURY

•Non-disaster-resilient communities (with the associated morbidity, mortality, homelessness, and economic losses)• Global climate change over time

• Environmental degradation and pollution of air, water, and soil

• Endangerment and extinction of plant and animal life

LIKELY CAUSES OF COMPLEX DISASTERS

DURING THE 21ST CENTURY

• Poverty

• Chronic hunger

• Urgent health care needs

• Increasing risk of pandemic disease

• Large-scale migrations of people

• Endangered plant and animal life

• Conflict and terrorism

THE LEGACY OF THE 21ST CENTURY

THAT WE DON’T WANT

Unless we design and implement

realistic new paradigms for disaster

resilience, OUR LOSSES in terms of

the 3 S’s, 5 E’s, and 1 H may grow

so rapidly that we may reach

“tipping points,” before we realize it,

and …

THE LEGACY OF THE 21ST CENTURY

THAT WE DON’T WANT (CONTINUED)

. . . Discover that we are the ones

that caused an unnecessary and

irreversible reduction in the quality

of all life on Planet Earth.

THE “BEST SOLUTION SET”: THE

FRAMEWORK OF DISASTER RESILIENCE

• To anticipate and plan for the full

spectrum of what can happen

• To build capacity at the community

level for ALL 5 pillars of disaster

resilience: preparedness, protection,

early warning, emergency response,

and recovery/reconstruction

THE “BEST SOLUTION SET”: THE

FRAMEWORK OF DISASTER RESILIENCE

• To be relentless in informing,

educating, training, and building

equity for all five pillars of disaster

resilience in all sectors of every

community in every nation

WE KNOW WHAT TO DO AND HOW TO DO

IT, --- so, let’s DO IT by 2020!

• We can reach the urgent goal of

global disaster resilience by 2020 if

communities work strategically to

implement a realistic set of

scientific, technical, and political

solutions--- nested within EXISTING

administrative, legal, and economic

constraints.

HERE’S WHAT WE NEED

STAKEHOLDERS

PARTNERSHIPS

INTEGRATION OF SCIENCE AND PUBLIC POLICY FOR:

PREPAREDNESS, PROTECTION, EARLY WARNING, EM. RESPONSE, AND RECOVERY/RECONSTRUCTION

CONNECT THE 5 PILLARS OF DISASTER

RESILIENCE

RECOVERY/RE-

CONSTRCTION

ALL ELEMENTS ARE

INTERRELATED

PREPAREDNESS PROTECTION

EARLY

WARNING

EM.

RESPONSE

FORGE A GLOBAL AGENDA FOR DISASTER

RESILIENCE

EXPERIENCES WITH

PREPAREDNESS

EXPERIENCES WITH

PROTECTION

GLOBAL BOOKS OF

KNOWLEDGE

EXPERIENCES WITH EARLY

WARNING AND EMERGENCY

RESPONSE

EXPERIENCES WITH

RECOVERY AND

RECONSTRUCTION

GLOBAL PARTNERSHIPS

THAT BUILD ON THE PAST

(1990 TO THE PRESENT)

WHILE LOOKING TO 2020

FACTORS THAT WILL FACILITATE

SUCCESS BY 2020

• PUBLIC AWARENESS OF EACH PROBLEM AND

THE BENEFIT/COSTS OF ITS SOLUTION SET.

• A COMMON AGENDA FOR PARTNERSHIPS

WORKING ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD

• NATIONAL PRIDE CAUSING POLITICAL

LEADERS AND SCIENTISTS TO DEVISE AND

IMPLEMENT PUBLIC POLICIES AND BEST

PRACTICES FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE.

CHANGES BASED ON A LARGER

SOCIAL CONSTRUCT OF THE

ISSUES

POLICY CHANGE 1: FOCUS ON THE NATURE AND APPROPRIATENESS OF ACTIONS BY GLOBAL PARTNERS AND THE WAYS TO ENLIST SUPPORT AND RESOURCES TO IMPLEMENT THE KINDS OF ACTIONS THAT ARE NEEDED.

CHANGES BASED ON A LARGER

SOCIAL CONSTRUCT OF THE

ISSUES

POLICY CHANGE 2: FOSTER REAL

CHANGE BY INTEGRATING POLICIES AND

BEST PRACTICES FOR PREPAREDNESS,

PROTECTION, EARLY WARNING, EMER-

GENCY RESPONSE, AND RECOVERY/RECON-

STRUCTION BASED ON EXISTING LEGAL

MANDATES AND ASSETS.

CHANGES BASED ON A LARGER

SOCIAL CONSTRUCT OF THE

ISSUES

POLICY CHANGE 3: CREATE, ADJUST,

AND REALIGN PARTNERSHIPS UNTIL

WE ACHIEVE THE KINDS OF ACTIONS

NEEDED TO SOLVE THE PROBLEMS

FACED BY LOCAL COMMUN ITIES IN

EVERY REGION.

TOWARDS DISASTER RESILIENCE BY 2020

THE KNOWLEDGE BASE

Best Practices for Mitigation

and Adaptation

Gateways to a Deeper

Understanding

Real and Near- Real Time

Monitoring/Communication

Vulnerability and Risk

Characterization

Anticipatory Actions for all

Events and Situations

Situation Data Bases

Interfaces with all Real- and

Near Real-Time Sources

Cause & Effect Relationships

CAPACITY BUILDING

Close Gaps in Knowledge

and Implementation

Seek out, Engage, equip,

and Enable “Partnerships”

Transfer Ownership of the

Knowledge Bases

Transfer Ownership of

Emerging Technologies

Move Towards A Disaster

Intelligent Community

CONTINUING EDUCATION

Engage Partners in

Learning Experiences

Enlighten Communities on

Their Risks

Build Strategic Equity

Through Scenarios

Multiply “Partnerships” by

Regioal/global Twinning

Update Knowledge Bases

After Each Scenario

TURNING POINTS: Partnerships for Preparedness, Protection, Early

Warning, Emergency Response, and Recovery/Reconstruction

YOUR

COMMUNITY

DATA BASES

AND INFORMATION

HAZARDS:GROUND SHAKING

GROUND FAILURE

SURFACE FAULTING

TECTONIC DEFORMATION

TSUNAMI RUN UP

AFTERSHOCKS

•HAZARD MAPS

•INVENTORY

•VULNERABILITY

•LOCATION

RISK ASSESSMENT

RISK

ACCEPTABLE RISK

UNACCEPTABLE RISK

DISASTER RESILIENCE

POLICIES / PRACTICES::

•PREPAREDNESS

•PROTECTION

•EARLY WARNING

•EM. RESPONSE

•RECOVERY/RECONSTRUCT.

COMMUNITY GOALS