The Future of Japan

Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com

The Future of Japan


Guy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com

The Future of Our World


Guy Dauncey

Dawn

Sea


Guy Dauncey

www.earthfuture.com


When you think about

your personal future

what do you feel?


ExcitementHope

Uncertainty

Worry

Fear



the future of our world,

what do you feel?


ExcitementHope

Uncertainty

Worry

Fear


Guy DaunceyA Presentation to Students

at Vancouver Island University, July 2014

Building a New Future


What is your vision of the future?

















Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam



XishuangbanNa Residence Sustainable Modern Bamboo High-Rise

in China


Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com Bird Island: Zero Energy Home in Kuala Lumpur




1

What is ourREALITY?


実在


We’ve come a long way from this….


To this …


but…

Everyone wants to go shopping…






Smithore Dreamstime.com

We’ve also come to this…


Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com




?……







If everyone lived like Canadians or Japanese,

we'd need two more Earths

to provide the resources.









Live Rainforest

Dead Rainforest



What went wrong?

How did this…


Gross

Domestic

Product


国内総生産

turn into this? …


Gross

Depletionof the

Planet


惑星のグロス枯渇



Do you think there are too many people

on the Earth?

YES NO ?


Do you think we consume too much?

YES NO ?

消費する

2

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE


地球規模の気候変動



Almost all our energy is Solar Energy Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com

Almost all energy is Solar Energy

The Sun sends us solar energy

The trees capture the energy through photosynthesis

and convert it into CARBON

In


359 million years agoThe Carboniferous (Solar) Era


When ancient forests died,

they stored the carbon

as

COAL

In






When we burn the

COALit releases theancient carbon

and causes

GLOBAL WARMING

In


Ancient Solar Energy Solar Coal

Bye-bye, West VirginiaHello, Global Warming


The Sun also sends solar energyinto the ocean



It is captured by ocean plankton,

who store it as CARBON



When they die,the ancient carbon

becomes

OIL and GAS


Most of our energy comes from:

COAL, OIL and GASAncient solar energy = ancient carbon



Ancient Marine Plankton Solar Oil & Gas

Hello, Global Warming

Oil is also a cause of war and conflict


They are all FOSSIL FUELSThey all cause Global Warming


The cars we drive all cause global warming



12.5 million tonnes of coal10 million tonnes of oil

7.5 billion cubic meters of natural gas

Every day, we burnthis ancient carbon energy


This gives us lots of ……

POWER!



85% of all this energy comes from fossil fuelsGuy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com




Earth has a very thin atmosphere which traps and holds the sun’s heat,using CO2, methane, & water vapour.




As we burn the fossil fuels…


When we burn fossil fuels…




CO2 CO2CO2

CO2

CO2 CO2




CO2 CO2CO2

CO2

CO2 CO2

100 million tonnes a day = 4 million tonnes an hour = 67,000 tonnes a minute = 1,000 tonnes a second





Carbon dioxide traps

Carbon dioxide,like the other greenhouse

gases, traps

HEATin the troposphere



The carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is rising



After 10,000 years of relative stability at 280 ppm, this is how dramatically

CO2 is rising in the atmosphere.

Heat warms the air and the oceans



Glaciers are melting


The Arctic sea ice is melting




Greenland is melting

Around parts of Greenland, ocean surface temperatures rose 1.8°-3.6°F between 1990-2011.




The last time the world was 3C warmer, the sea level was 25 metres higher

The last time the world was 3°C warmer, during the Pliocene,

the sea level was up to

25 metres higher.

We are currently on track for 4°C, 5°C or 6°C warmer

2 metres

10 metres

18 metres

25 metres

If all Earth’s polar ice melted 70 metres sea-level rise

92 metres

70 metres

This is impacting all marine life that uses calcium carbonate to build its shells

The ocean is absorbing 26% of the CO2, making it more acidic.

If global warming exceeds 1.6°C up to

31% of Earth’s species

will be committed to extinction,

having nowhere to go to escape the rising heat

The View from Australia

2°C of warming, Hansen’s team says, will have consequences that will be

“disastrous,” and which will “cause major dislocations for civilization.”

2°C of warming, Hansen’s team says, will have consequences that will be

“disastrous,” and which will “cause major dislocations for civilization.”

Which of us is going to raise a hand and say, “Yes, it’s worth it”?

Seoul, July 2011






IPCC 2007


www.globalwarmingart.com

+ 2˚C rise

Climate Denial


is the Age of Fossil Fuels

This

10,000 years past

10,000 years future


The Sun is rapidly settingon the Age of Fossil Fuels.

Past Future Age ofFossil Fuels

We are HERE


The Age of Firewood

The Age of Fossil Fuels

The Solar Age

The Age of Fossil Fuels has been the

LAUNCH RAMPfor the Solar Age

500,000 yearsFirewood

300 yearsFossil Fuels

ScienceEngineering

Enlightenment

Two billion yearsSolar Energy

Inertia via YouTube


Comparison of Vegetation Zones Average vs Warmer (21st Century) Climate



Kyoto, December 23rd 2006


Mount Fuji in Spring


Mt. Fuji - no snow


All of Japan’s nuclear plants are at sea level





Florida 17 feet (5-6 metres) sea level rise




Hurricane Katrina, August 2005


New Orleans, August 2005


Torrential downpoursand floods

At the current predicted temperature rise,

33%of the Earth will be affected

by extreme drought by 2100

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (UK), 2006





Number of days over 100°F / 38°C

60 days a year

120+ days a year



At the current predicted temperature rise,

Up to 20%of the world’s economy could be lost

That’s like the Great Depression

and both World Wars combined

+

Wake up! Call the media! Get on TV!

Climate change is destroying our world!



There’s also a second problem The Global Oil SupplyGuy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007

www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com








Do you sometimes feel that it’s all getting

out of control?


So what shall we do?


Do you think it ispossible to stop

burning fossil fuels?

化石燃料

YES NO ?

燃やす

3

JAPAN’SENERGY PROBLEM


エネルギー問題



Coal 21%

Oil 46%

Gas 15%

Nuclear 15%

= 1,000 Terawatt hours

a year



Uranium Nuclear 15%

Coal 21%

Natural Gas 15%

Oil 46%

97% of all Japan’senergy

is imported

$$

$$

$$$$


Uranium 15%

Coal 21%

Natural Gas 15%

Oil 46%

USA 75%France 11%Britain 10%









Uranium Nuclear 15%

Coal 21%

Natural Gas 15%

Oil 46%


Uranium Nuclear 15%

Coal 21%

Natural Gas 15%

Oil 46%


Uranium Nuclear 15%

Coal 21%

Natural Gas 15%

Oil 46%


Uranium Nuclear 15%

Coal 21%

Natural Gas 15%

Oil 46%


Uranium Nuclear 15%

Coal 21%

Natural Gas 15%

Oil 46%

?

Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com/files/japangreenpath


www.earthfuture.com/files/japangreenpath/green_path_japanese.pdf


How serious 切実

is Japan’s Energy Problem?

1. Very serious2. I don’t know3. Not serious

4

JAPAN’S ENERGY

SOLUTIONS解答




We need…

A 100% Shift to Renewable

Energy

Martinedegraaf Dreamstime.com


We need…

A Green Economy

Harmony with Nature

True Sustainability


How much energy does Japan need?

1,000 terawatt hours a year


1,000 terawatt hours a year

千テラワット時間今年


Where will the green electricity come from?


Efficient Appliances


LED lights only use

1 to 5 watts








How much energy can Japan SAVE?

200 to 500 terawatt hours a year


More solar energy reaches Earth in an hour than humans use in a year.

Solar energy travels at the speed of light 1,000 million kilometres an hour

Sun to Earth in 8 minutes 19 seconds


Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com Rolf Disch Solar Architecture

Solar Power


Ota Solar City, Japan


Solar-powered homesYoshikawa, near Tokyo



Solar Stadium, Taiwan

Kennedy Bridge over the Rhine, Germany

Kurilpa Bridge, Australia

Blackfriars Bridge, London, UK

Solar railwayParis to Amsterdam

16,000 panels3.4 kilometres

3,300 MWh a year


Dow’s Solar Shingles


Thin film solar


Thin film solar production

Thin film solar

Thin Film: average module efficiencies 13.9% US $0.49 per watt (First Solar)

Conventional multi-crystalline PV: $0.43 per wattaverage conversion efficiency 15% - 19%


The Falling Price of Solar PV


Price of Solar Cells1977: $761981: $241991: $92001: $62011: $1.252013: $0.74

Solar Economics in BC, 20204 kW PV system

15.5 cents kwh, 3% per year increaseCash down

Cost per kW $1,6004 kW + 5% tax $6,720

kWh per year 4,400 25 year savings $25,600Profit +$19,000

Solar Economics in Japan, 20204 kW PV system

35 cents kwh, 0% per year increaseCash down

Cost per kW $1,6004 kW + 0% tax $6,400

kWh per year 4,400 25 year savings $38,50025 year profit +$32,000


Price of Installed Solar Power

Germany: $2.50 a wattUS & Canada: $4 a wattJapan: $4 a watt


The SolarTsunami


Guy Dauncey 2011www.earthfuture.com

A billion years

The Sun will not begin to turn into a Red Giant for more than a billion years.

That’s 100,000 periods of 10,000 years

Guy Dauncey 2011www.earthfuture.com

A billion years

The Sun will not begin to turn into a Red Giant for more than a billion years.

And with every passing year, solar technology will improve

and fall in price.

By 2020, every south-facing roof without 4 kW will lose up to $1,000 a year

Victoria: Solar Rooftop Potential Everywhere

Vancouver: Solar Rooftop Potential Everywhere

Every commercial roof could look like this, and earn $10,000 a year


How much SOLAR energy could Japan produce?


Kagoshima Nanatsujima 70 MW Solar, Japan

Concentrating Solar Thermal Energy

Solar Millennium AG

The Sun radiates almost 1000 times more energy onto Earth’s deserts

than humans use.

Odeillo solar furnace, France. Built 197010,000 mirrors, 3000°C

Solana, Arizona

280 MW Solar Thermal + 6 hours storage

254 sq km Global electricity use

110 sq kmEuropean Union

www.desertec.org

High-voltage DC can transmit electricity up to 3000 km. 90% of the world’s people live within 3000 km

of the world’s deserts and arid regions


Solar One, Nevada, 64 MW

Earth’s total known fossil energy reservesare equivalent to 47 days of solar energy

reaching the Earth’s deserts




How much SOLAR THERMAL energy could Japan produce?

Unknown


Geothermal Energy


Geothermal Energy: 13% growth pa2-12 cents kWh39 countries could get 100% power = 17% of the world’s people






Geothermal powerNesjavellir Geothermal Plant, Iceland




How much GEOTHERMAL energy could Japan produce?


Hatchobaru Geothermal Power Plant, Kokonoe, Oita


Kappel Wind Farm, Lolland, Denmark

Wind Energy



Kamisu Wind Farm, Ibaraki, Japan


Siemens AG



Wind Power in Japan


How much WIND energy could Japan produce?

570 to 5,000 terawatt hours a year


How much HYDRO energy could Japan produce?

79 - 140 terawatt hours a year


How much TIDAL energy could Japan produce?


20-70 terawatt hours a year


South Korea’s 1 MW Jindo Uldolmok tidal power plant


The Cost is Falling

1990 2013 2020Wind 30 8-10 8 cents kWh

Solar 200 30 15 cents kWh


THE RESULT

Japan needs 1,000 TWh a year

Low HighEfficiency 200 500Solar 72 300Geothermal 30 500

Wind 570 5000Hydro 79 140Tidal 20 70

TOTAL 971 6510


Do you think it is

possible for Japan stopburning fossil fuel

化石燃料 for electricity?

YES NO ?

5

TRANSPORTATION輸送

SOLUTIONS解答Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013

www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com




CO2 CO2CO2

CO2

CO2 CO2

100 million tonnes a day = 4 million tonnes an hour

= 67,000 tonnes a minute = 1,000 tonnes a second




Copenhagen36% of all work trips by bike.

Vancouver, Howe Street


Electric Bicycle







Moto Electra World Record Across US in 3 Days

Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com Electric Motorbike




Solar electric bicycles in Tokyo


Electric train, running on green electricity

= no climate impact


Public Transit

Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com Christoph Groneck, Trams-in-France.net


Electric bus, running on green electricity = no climate impact

OLEVOn-Line Electric Vehicle, South Korea


Japan’s Future Electric Bus


Chevy Volt1,400 km on one tank of gas


Nissan Leaf Electric - 120 km range


Smart Electric – 135 km range


Mitsubishi MiEV160 km range



Toyota RAV4 EV148 km range


Tesla Roadster 393 km range

Top

The KIA Pop: yet to be released

STELLA

Made by Dutch students, Eindhoven UniversityFamily size, 4-seater

Roadworthy, legal in HollandWeight: 380 kg (1120 kg for normal EV)

Range: 400 km no sunshine, 600 km full sunshineSolar PV cost $4,000

10 months a year it produces more energy than it usesExcess power back into the grid


Electric cars, running on green electricity

= no climate impact

1.5 kW of solar PV = 1,500 kWh a year

Electric car: 15 kWh = 100 km

10,000 km = 1,500 kWh

PV for EV

1.5 kW solar PV $7,500

3.5% 25 year mortgage on $7.5k = $37/month

Gas @ $1.30 litre = $80/month

Solar RoadwaysIn US, 3 x total electricity demand

www.solarroadways.com


Honda solar electric car charging


Electric car fast charging

Mercedes Biome – made from bioplasticGuy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com

Solar Sailor www.solarsailor.com

9 MW of solar panelsRetractable sails between each cargo bay

Self-unloading cargo baysSuperconducting power link

Modular LNG hydrogen fuel cellsSleek, low wind resistance design




Future Boing Liquid Hydrogen Plane

Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com Telemeetings = no climate impact


Do you think it is

possible for Japan to have

transportationwithout oil?

YES NO ?

6

BUILDINGSOLUTIONS


We can live and work in green buildings


What is your vision of a future green world?Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com

Is this your dream home of the future?Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com

Or this?Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com

This…



Or this?

This …



Or this?


Heating 加熱 without Fossil Fuels


Solar Heat + StorageAustria


Okotoks, Alberta – Solar Heating


Okotoks, Alberta – Solar Heating


Solar Heating from the Air



Ground Source Heat2 million installations in 30 countries

$20,000 to $30,000



Water Source Heat


Ice-Source Heat

Richmond Olympic Skating Oval


Solar Heat

Solar hot wateron a restaurant in

Sweden

Photo by Hamilton Hazlehurst/Vulcan



www.solarbc.caA project of the BCSEA


Lindau Hospital, Germany



Rizhao, China


99% of city centre households use solar hot water.60,000 greenhouses, all solar powered.

Whole city plans to become carbon neutral.

Rizhao, ChinaPopulation 3 million


CSIRO



Solar Wall Heating




Welsh Development Agency Technology Center, St. Asaph, Wales


Drake Landing, Okotoks, Alberta

Year-Round Solar Heating

Energy Centre

Community solar heat panels

Solar hot waterpanels

800 solar hot water panels on the garages90% of residential space heating (40-50o C)

Reduction - 5 tonnes of GHGs per home per year.

No groundwater intrusion, so the heat accumulates over the summer.

SOLAR THERMAL STORAGE

Molten Salt: 7.5 hours after dark

Slab and Earth Heat Storage

Saturated sand

• Heat storage in an underground aquifer

100% solar heated house, Emmental, Switzerlandwww.jenni.ch

Austria

Collective solar thermal system on a residential building, Germanywww.wagner-solar.com


Pearl River Tower

Guangzhou, China




Bahrain World Trade Centre


Virgo Road, Oakland Hills, San FranciscoRobert Nebolon architect


Toyko, Japan


8,000 sq ft zero carbon home designed for Manchester United soccer player Gary Neville



ACROS Fukuoka building in Fukuoka, Japan. 35,000 plants, 76 species



Osaka



Ogimachi – Shirakawa Farm Village


Tono Furusato Restored Farm Village




Madrid, Spain


Gangnam district, Seoul




ACROS Fukuoka buildingFukuoka, Japan


Do you think it ispossible to heat

Japan’s buildingswithout fossil fuels?

YES NO ?

7

OUR PAST AND

OUR FUTUREGuy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com


We have been developing intelligencefor millions of years














Our technology is the expression of our

cumulative 累積のshared シェアードintelligence 知性


Where are we going?


We have made our full evolutionary

journeyover 13.8 billion years


We have made our recent

evolutionary journey over ten million years


There will be

a billion years

before the Sun runs out of fueland begins to die


A billion years10億年

We are here

Past

過去Future

将来


Firewood1.5 million years

CumulativeIntelligence

The Carbon Years…


The Carbon Years could be the launch-ramp…

Firewood1.5 million years


Fossil Fuels200 years


The Carbon Years could bethe launch-ramp for the solar years

Firewood Solar1.5 million years


Fossil Solar200 years

True Solar1 billion years


THE CLIMATE EMERGENCYIS VERY REAL

What is stopping us from making faster progress?

1. Laziness 休怠 and apathy 無関心2. Political corruption 政治腐敗3. Ignorance 不知 4. Confusion 錯乱 and no leadership 指導

8

FINALTHOUGHTS


A Thousand PossibilitiesGuy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com


What will you do with your life?


We Day, Canada www.weday.comGuy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com




It’s Our World – Let’s Change ItGuy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com

www.metowe.comGuy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com






By Nattanicha Kongsathitporn, age 14, Thailand

We need to roll up the past.

Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com By Iskren Rumenov Petrov, age 14, from Bulgaria

We need to sail away from our old, polluting waysand build a green, sustainable world.


This is about you, your children,and your future.


決意



Number of stars in the Universe

1024: 1 trillion trillion


The Universe has taken

13 billion years

to create us


Number of atoms in your

body:

1027: 1000 trillion trillion

All self-organized into one amazing

whole


Every atom in your body was either made in the Big Bangor in a later Supernova explosion


Number of stars in our galaxy

100 trillion


Number of synapses in your brain

100 trillion

All self-organized into one amazing whole


100 trillion synapses 100 trillion stars


We are all conscious


Do you have free will to choose your future?

Or is everything predetermined?


You have free will We can make a difference

It’s Our World – Let’s Change ItGuy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com


This is about us, our planet,and our future.


There are 7 billion of us humans…


Can we self-organize ourselves into one peacefulwhole,

living in harmony with Nature?


Our Home




the future of our world,

what do you feel?


Excitement

Hope

Uncertainty

Worry

Fear



Fall2014

Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.c

om

www.slideshare.net/GuyDauncey


Guy Dauncey

www.earthfuture.com

Environment

The Future of Japan