The  Future  of  Food      Insights  from  Discussions  Building  on  an  Ini4al  Perspec4ve  by:    Professor  Wayne  Bryden  |  University  of  Queensland  

Context  The  ini4al  perspec4ve  on  the  Future  of  Food  kicked  off  the    

Future  Agenda  2.0  global  discussions  taking  place  through  2015.    This  summary  builds  on  the  ini4al  view  and  is  updated  as  we  progress.    

Ini4al  Perspec4ves  Q4  2014  

Global  Discussions  Q1/2  2015  

Insight  Synthesis  Q3  2015  

Sharing    Output  Q4  2015  

Increasing  Compe77on  for  Grains    Changes  in  popula4on  and  cuisine  have  led  to  a  tremendous  rise  in  the  

demand  for  animal-­‐source  protein.  The  compe44on  between  livestock  and  humans  for  grains  and  other  high  quality  plant  foods  is  a  major  challenge.    

More  Efficient  Produc7on    Food  will  need  to  be  produced  more  efficiently.  Increased  produc4vity  must  come  from  a  reduced  land  area  and  resource  base.  We  will  need  to  be  less  

dependent  on  resources  that  are  becoming  scarce  or  more  costly.  

Second  Green  Revolu7on  Another  Green  Revolu4on  is  required  but  today’s  revolu4on  must  be  different  to  overcome  environmental,  financial  and  societal  constraints.  It  is  no  longer  possible  to  use  unlimited  water  and  chemical  inputs  to  increase  produc4on.    

Investment  in  Innova7on    There  has  been  a  global  decline  in  agricultural  R&D  in  the  past  four  decades.  There  is  now  an  urgent  need  to  redouble  the  agricultural  research  effort.  The  new  food  producing  system  has  to  be  science-­‐based  with  low  resource  input.    

Sustainable  Consump7on  Part  of  the  solu4on  is  the  development  of  consump4on  pa[erns  that  meet  requirements  in  a  safe,  nutri4ous  and  affordable  manner.  In  developed  

countries  this  will  mean  learning  to  eat  sustainably  with  less  reliance  on  meat.    

Maintaining  Global  Food  Security    Over  the  next  decade  maintaining  global  food  security  will  become    

much  more  difficult  as  the  popula4on  increases.  We  must    double  food  produc4on  in  a  sustainable  manner.    

Reinven7ng  Diets    Our  rela4onship  with  food  must  change.  We  will  need  to  reinvent  our  diets  to  meet  our  nutri4onal  requirements  for  op4mal  health  and  in  so  doing  consume  fewer  calories  and  less  meat:  We  must  be  prepared  to  pay  realis4c  prices.  

Educated  Consumers  To  improve  both  health  and  waste  we  see  mul4ple  campaigns,  both  global    

and  local  -­‐  at  school  and  in  the  home  –  that  help  consumers  be[er    understand  labelling,  the  benefits  of  home  cooking  and  balanced  diets.  

Nutri7onally  Balanced  Foods  Increasing  demand  for  more  affordable,  nutri4ous  food  leads  to  be[er  understanding  of  the  links  between  food,  physiology  and  health  -­‐  and  a  revisi4ng  of  the  past  when  food  was  more  func4onal  and  less  aesthe4c.  

Fair  Compensa7on  Fairer  prices  for  farmers,  food  producers  and  consumers  are  driven  by  the  elimina4on  of  subsidies,  the  introduc4on  of  sustainability  accoun4ng  into    the  corporate  P&L  and  increased  transparency  and  traceability  of  supply.  

Food  Safety  Led  by  WHO  and  other  mul4na4onal  partnerships,  a  gradual  shi`  towards  

more  harmonised  and  global  food  standards  and  interna4onal  regula4ons  has  to  first  overcome  food  poli4cs  and  significant  na4onal  self-­‐interests.  

Processed  Foods  More,  but  healthier,  ready-­‐prepared  and  ready-­‐to-­‐eat  foods  are  adopted  in    key  regions  where  ‘wet’  markets  currently  predominate:  In  some  countries    the  benefits  of  frozen  foods  over  fresh  are  championed  by  governments.  

Higher  Yields  With  a  focus  on  soil  rejuvena4on,  be[er  educa4on  of  farmers  and  more  widespread  use  of  animal  feeds,  medium-­‐sized  Asian  farms  use  proven  technologies  to  more  than  triple  output  per  acre  and  per  litre  of  water.  

Feeding  the  BoHom  of  the  Pyramid  Achieving  and  maintaining  lower  prices  and  more  efficient  large  scale  

distribu4on  to  and  within  ci4es  is  a  social  priority.  Balancing  this  with  higher  safety  standards  and  food  service  costs  is  however  a  challenge  for  some.  

Reducing  Food  Waste  Postharvest  losses  of  foods  in  developing  countries  can  amount  to  30-­‐50%  of  produc4on.  In  developed  countries  a  similar  propor4on  is  wasted:  Minimising    this  loss,  that  could  feed  3  billion  people,  is  driven  by  be[er  data  collec4on.  

Investment  in  Innova7on    The  urgent  need  to  redouble  the  agricultural  research  effort  and  overcome  recent  declines  drives  us  towards  a  new  food  producing  system  is  science-­‐based,  with  low  resource  input  and  a  wider  poreolio  of  consumed  plants.    

Targeted  Health  Foods    More  customised  foods,  blur  the  line  between    pharmaceu4cals  and  food  as  neutragenomics    allow  individualised  diets  to  fit  gene4c  profiles    

Gene7c  Cocktails  The  ability  to  match  ingredients  to  personal  health  traits  drives  the  expansion  of  bespoke  drinks  designed  to  deliver  func4onal    

as  well  as  flavour  benefits  to  the  individual.  

Almost  Zero  Waste  Escala4ng  waste  produc4on  and  new  ahtudes,    approaches,  regula4on  and  business  models  lead    many  to  aim  for  an  almost  zero  waste  society  

Natural  Plus  The  growing  affluent  consumers  increasingly  look  for  natural  

op4ons  in  many  areas  of  life  and  consump4on  -­‐  across  food,  cosme4cs,  household  goods  and  clothing.      

Mobile  Snacking  With  over  35%  of  breakfasts  already  consumed  in  the  car,    the  US  con4nues  to  lead  the  way  in  mobile  foods,  with  near    

constant  snacking  replacing  structured  meals.  

   

ThoughMul  Consump7on  The  essence  of  markets,  of  produc4on  and  of  buying  habits  are  all  influenced  by  a  growing  awareness  of  global  and  local  issues  which  help  individuals  and  

organisa4ons  to  be[er  form  consump4on  decisions  accordingly.  

Food  as  Currency    The  West’s  insa4able  demand  for  constant  variety  and  abundance  is  puhng  undue  pressure  on  the  food  industry  to  deliver  more  -­‐  thus  crea4ng  a  spiral    of  rising  demand.  As  this  increases  food  may  become  its  own  currency.    

Food  for  Thought  Growing  awareness  of  the  ‘whole  food  system’  and  open  discourse  on  the  role  of  food  in  society,  leads  to  a  return  to  tradi4onal  food  sharing  rituals  and  a  rediscovery  of  the  importance  of  food  to  social  cohesion  and  well-­‐being.    

Peak  Obesity  Growing  consumer  demands  for  transparency  and  healthy  op4ons,  along  with  declining  fast-­‐food  and  so`-­‐drink  sales  in  some  markets,  indicate  the  turning  of  a  corner  on  certain  food-­‐related  health  issues  such  as  childhood  obesity.  

Food  Resource  Op7misa7on  New  technologies  in  the  food  system,  from  data-­‐driven  seasonal  and  market  forecas4ng,  to  robo4cs  and  bio/gen-­‐tech,  lead  to  greater  resilience  to  shocks  

(e.g.  drought),  lower  costs  and  bigger  and  be[er  quality  yields.  

Empowering  Local  with  Global  Alongside  consolida4on  of  large  food  corpora4ons,  we  see  hyper-­‐local  

diversi4es  in  food  produc4on  and  supply  chains  -­‐  driven  by  global  networks  that  enable  local-­‐to-­‐local  sharing  of  informa4on,  resources,  and  technologies.  

Holis7c  Food  Planning  The  food  system  will  increasingly  be  understood  in  rela4on  to  wider  resource  management  (water,  energy  etc.),  bringing  together  mul4ple  stakeholders  

with  mul4ple  goals,  especially  within  local  landscapes  /  catchments.  

Food  Investment  Boom?  Greater  incen4ves  and  opportuni4es  for  both  public  and  private  investors  will  arise  from  technological  developments  and  innova4ons  in  food  produc4on,  

and  the  emergence  of  'high-­‐risk,  high-­‐return'  projects  such  as  C4  rice.  

Enabling  Food  Reuse  Faced  with  moun4ng  regula4on  to  prevent  food  reuse,  consumers,    

restaurants  and  retailers  lobby  for  changes  in  prac4ce  and  support  peer-­‐to-­‐peer  plaeorms  that  match  excess  supply  with  demand  and  ensure  delivery.  

Importers  to  Exporters  Be[er  data  management,  farmer  educa4on  and  gene4cs  combine  to  enable  more  food  to  be  produced  from  the  same  land.  Previous  net  food-­‐impor4ng  

na4ons  become  self-­‐sufficient  and  some  become  net  exporters.      

Less  Pes7cides  Improved  bio-­‐fer4lisers,  be[er  bio-­‐control  and  a  changing  global  perspec4ve  on,  and  hence  regional  ahtudes  to,  GMO  all  combine  to  help  improve  yield  -­‐  

while  reducing  environmental  impact  of  mass  food  produc4on.  

Blue  Food  The  opportunity  from  aqua4c  foods  -­‐  both  fish  and  plants  –  is  developed.  

Posi4ve  consumer  percep4ons  and  rising  efficiencies  outweigh  cost,  pollu4on  and  transport  challenges  to  deliver  higher  growth  than  land-­‐based  foods  

Water  as  an  Issue  Greater  awareness  of  water  access,  scarcity  and  control,  alongside  visibility  on  the  true  value  of  water,  all  drive  wider  recogni4on  of  the  challenge.  But,  in  some  regions,  the  absence  of  a  major  crisis  delays  poli4cal  and  social  ac4on.  

Urban  Farming  Driven  by  city  food-­‐security  targets  and  innova4ve  produc4on  systems,    urban  farming  plays  an  increasingly  significant  role  in  many  regions:  reclaiming  waste  ground  and  reducing  supply  chain  complexity.  

Credit  Access  Timely  access  to  credit  enables  farmers  to  purchase  fer5liser  and  other    

inputs  to  improve  yields  and  making  it  easier  to  obtain  loans    -­‐  resul5ng  in  a  reduced  need  to  rely  on  high-­‐cost  lenders  

Leveraging  the  Cloud  More  cloud-­‐based  solu5ons  deliver  services  with  higher  levels  of  reliability    and  scalability.  Because  many  are  also  customisable,  they  can  be  tailored    

to  fit  the  unique  needs  of  agribusinesses  and  so  improve  efficiency.      

Streamlined  Processes  BeBer  access  to  informa5on  helps  farmers  to  raise  yields  and  income.  

Improved  distribu5on  networks  increase  transporta5on  efficiency,  improve  stock  management,  reduce  cash-­‐handling  costs  and  also  lower  fraud  risk.  

Peer-­‐to-­‐peer  Marketplaces  Timely  access  to  informa5on  and  beBer  transparency  on  market  prices    enable  farmers  to  par5cipate  in  peer-­‐to-­‐peer  marketplaces.  They  sell    

their  produce,  machinery,  equipment  and  goods  directly  to  buyers  via  SMS.    

Local  Foods  Increased  transparency  around  food  availability  and  security,    land  use  and  economic  literacy  accelerate  greater  consump7on    

of  locally  grown  and  processed  foods  

Non-­‐indigenous  Foods  Although  demand  for  exo7c  ingredients  rises,  there  will  be  increased  

awareness  of  the  environmental  consequences  of  growing  non-­‐indigenous  crops.  More  informed  consumers  choose  indigenous  produce.  

Low-­‐water  Crops  With  increased  water  stress  and  growing  demand  for  food,  more    drought  and/or  salt  resistant  crops  are  developed  and  grown.    

This  is  supported  by  improved  water  management.  

Farm  to  Market  Efficiency  With  some  countries  losing  over  40%  of  food  in  the  supply  chain,  food  storage  and  distribu7on  are  seen  as  areas  for  increased  efficiency.  Private  companies  

take  greater  responsibility,  reducing  corrup7on:  Prices  are  more  stable.  

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