Is Bread Toast in 2016?

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Is Bread Toast?

A critical look at the baking industry, sliced bread and grain-based foods in the age of social media and self-appointed experts

What this talk will cover

•  Suggested title from the outhouse to the penthouse – Why is bread and processed food in the

outhouse? – Bread industry weak points and trust losers

•  How do you regain consumer trust and retake the middle class?

•  Where do we go from here?

Traditional Problems

http://visual.ly/reasons-never-eat-processed-foods-again

Packaged(Facts((2015)(finds(that(66%(take(nutri&onal*content,*ingredient0free,**and*health*benefit*statements(into(considera:on(when(buying(food(and(beverage(

items.(

CONSUMER SHOPPING BEHAVIOR

Shortest Ingred. List

Ingredients I recognize

Minimally processed

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Minimally processed

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Minimally processed

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Fewer Ingredients Are Better – Michael Pollan

! 65% agree a little or a lot that fewer is better ! Do they know what that really means?

! Logical brain vs taste ! Perception: More ingredients = more likely items

to avoid Package Food Facts Online Jan 2015

Disagree a lot 1 Disagree a little 4 Neither 29 Agree a little 37 Agree a lot 28

‘Newer’(Problems(–(Are(labels(so(complicated(that(consumers(no((longer(think((they’re(real(food?(

Not Confident in the Food Supply More Concerned about Chemicals than Foodborne Illness

IFIC 2015

Consumers Think Its BETTER If

More healthy Preservative-free 80%

No artificial sweeteners 80%(IFIC)

Additive free 43% Honey = healthy Katz, 2015; Clean Consumer Labels 4/2015 Nutraceuticals Wld; Us Trend HealthFocus, 2013; Sloan FdTech 12/ 2014 (U.S. Adults)

Technomics(((2015)

BeMer(TASTE(21%(think(that(addi:vePfree(means(beMer(taste.(((Technomics((2015)(

HOW DOES THIS RELATE TO THE BREAD AISLE?

The Food Babe

Too much information about things consumers no longer care about

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Self-Appointed ‘Experts’ Spread Fear

Many objects of chemophobia; Consumers do not see the advantage to them

Think about how these sound to a person with HS Science?

Are there practices that the industry needs to study?

Weighing Risks and Benefits •  The risk of removing or keeping the

current preservative? –  Is the risk worth the benefit? – Can the benefit be communicated? Does

that create a risk? – Does removing it imply it’s bad and you’ve

been using it all this time?

Companies Dissing Other Products

“No matter how companies “clean up” formulations in an effort to improve consumer perception of their products a competitor is going to seek a point of differentiation by questioning an ingredient or ingredients in the formulation. This is a marketing strategy being employed by many companies and its level of success ensures it is going to continue.” ??Short vs long-term success strategy??

Weighing Risks and Benefits •  Fear marketers EWG, Food Babe

– not concerned with accurately conveying these complexities of risk

–  just need claim to be scary enough to drive people to choose their products/ book etc.

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Implying the Other Are Smuck •  The Fear Babe: Shattering Vani Hari’s Glass House,”

Marc Draco, 2016 How Marketers Use Fear Of Chemicals For Profit: 3 Easy Steps

•  Claim&“We&use&a&broader&defini2on&for&safety.&Our&Honest&approach&takes&full&considera2on&of&poten2al&chronic&(long?term)&impacts,&exposure&routes,&unique&windows&of&vulnerability&and&a&wide&spectrum&of&poten2al&health&impacts&including&carcinogenicity,&teratogenicity,&allergenicity,&neurotoxicity&and&more.&It’s&a&lot&more&to&consider&and&weigh,&but&we&think&our&children&are&worth&it.”(

Fear Monger Random Fact Strategy •  Ava(Anderson(NonPToxic(Teen(Cosme:cs(•  Implied(claim(P(1(in(2(men(&(1(in(3(women((P(cancer(in(their(life:me(

•  1(/(68(children((1(/(42(boys)(are(iden:fied(with(au:sm((

•  Alzheimer’s(!500%((P(last(20(yrs.(NCI(comprehensive(Surveillance"(cancer(incidence(is(NOT(!.(Just(spewing(data((

Azodicarbonamide •  EWG - “500 Ways to Make a Yoga Mat

Sandwich” ( even whole grain and natural)

•  130 companies – Betty Crocker to Little Debbie –  “health”-oriented brands Earth Grains,

Artisan’s Choice, and Manischewitz

Azodicarbonamide - Food Babe •  Claim - is known to increase the risk of

asthma, allergies and skin problems – Query – is it adequately tested in humans

at the concentrations people may ingest if they eat numerous products that contain it.

– Allowed Canada and US - why – Banned Europe / Australia- why not?

FDA(allows(<45(ppm •  Ask(yourself(why(it(is(there?(• What(is(the(consumer(advantage?(• WHO(/FAO(

–  concern(about(respiratory(symptoms(and(skin(reac:ons;(longterm(effects(really(aren’t(known(yet.((

•  “Nutri:on(sleuth”(Johannah(Sakimura(»  (concern(over(ADA(has(been(sensa:onalized,(BUT(“Read(labels(carefully,(choose(the(least(processed(products(with(the(fewest(number(of(addi:ves,(and(s:ck(to(homePmade(whole(foods(whenever(possible.“

Talk about Risk •  Fudging the concept of risk: Fail to put risk into

context "People fear very small perceived risks and ignore big actual risks.

•  In context, consumers may be less willing buy “non-toxic” product. –  fear of artificial preservatives. –  Condemn the small and intangible risk of preservatives, but

neglect the danger of bacterial contamination •  ruin a product or worse, spread disease,

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Skeptics Guide to the Universe Dr. Steven Novella - clinical neurologist

•  Companies “create a market by making claims that are not supported by science,”

•  If FTC steps in or scientists debunk marketing claims, the consumer niche is already established. “You’ve already created the belief in the function of your product, now you just sell the brand.”

–  Importantly, consumers who fall victim to fear marketing aren’t stupid; they’re simply misinformed.

–  Full of nuance and complexity, science doesn’t always deliver black and white answers. - science cannot provide the certainty that people crave about their families’ well-being. ..

–  fear marketers deliver false certainty wrapped in artisanal packaging, devoid of so-called harmful chemicals, and nary a dose of reason in sight.

Deciding How to Address the Charge

•  Cave in – Panera and Subway •  Talk about safety? •  Talk about the role in the product

Natural

•  Why does industry put this on the label?

•  Does it add to consumer knowledge or is it just more industry background?

Conusmers’ Report

Why Is Natural on Your Label? Does It Build Trust?

Does this strategy dis your other lines?

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Industry Centered VS Consumer Centered

•  Made with Whole Grain •  Dietarily important amt of WG •  Whole Grain Characterization

– How will this help me sell more bread? – Why would this be good for consumers and

public health? Vs If this is so, how can I make it work for my industry?

INDUSTRY SAYS GF FOODS ARE ON THE WANE

Gluten – you may agree with Michael Pollan on this - but

•  Pollan – “It’s hard to believe that the number of people suffering from these conditions has grown as fast as this product category. Gluten has become the bad nutrient of the moment…. Could it really be that bread, a staple of Western civilization for 6,000 years, is suddenly making millions of us sick?”

GF Foods Are Less Nutritious(

•  EUFIC - Free From Foods thought to be healthier

•  GF foods are less nutritious –  Study of Canadian GF

products - in press

•  Another opportunity for a being ‘found out.’

•  Make them better

More Trying to Avoid Gluten “Gluten avoidance is the reigning

dietary restriction of our time” •  44% agree /strongly agreed - ingredients to

avoid play a role in food purchase •  33% self-reported pattern of food avoidance •  30% - decreasing or avoiding gluten completely •  >100 million trying to cut down on gluten •  >10 million households GF 2014 •  Sales $973 million, 2014 " $2.3 billion by

2019 Pkg Fd Facts 2/2014;Sloan FdTech 12/ 2014; * Gallup survey

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Sales of GF Products

GF Trend: A Decrease or a Hope

Top 2016 Trends 12/15

?GF Trend Is on the Wane?


INDUSTRY HAS LOST CONSUMER TRUST

Dietary Guidelines Note Too Many Grain Servings

Label : This bagel Is 3 servings

Label Texas Toast and Pasta serves

Get rid of the 55g sv

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What We Eat In America 2014

Too Many Calories - Adults Top 10 sources of calories in U.S. diet 1. Grain-based desserts/snacks (cakes, cookies, donuts, pies, crisps, cobblers, and granola bars)

2. Yeast breads 3. Chicken and chicken-mixed dishes 4. Soda, energy drinks, and sports drinks 5. Pizza

Too Many Grain Servings Too Many Calories

Top 10 sources of calories in U.S. diet 6. Alcoholic beverages (? A grain serving) 7. Pasta and pasta dishes 8. Mexican mixed dishes (tortillas) 9. Beef and beef-mixed dishes 10. Dairy desserts

Not Enough Whole Grains

•  Whole grains 0.9 sv/d •  Put your best minds on this •  Don’t confuse people with ‘made eith

whole grain’ •  Make these sing •  Need high margin and low margin,

smooth texture

Too Many Indulgent Grains

•  Whole grains 0.9 sv/d •  Top sources of energy for 2–18 year

olds •  Grain desserts 138 kcal/d •  Pizza 136 kcal/d •  Soda 118 kcald

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Admitting Indulgent Grains Are Treats - Not for Everyday Industry Foibles

•  Not talking about the elephant in the room – obesity

•  Daily donuts •  indulgent grains

–  Whole grain brownies; 6” cookies – really????

Date Layer Bar Reach

Only 37% exercise adequately

Industry Foibles •  Not talking about the elephant in the room –

obesity and indulgent grains – Whole grain brownies; 6” cookies – really???? – Natural – no definition

•  Not telling the whole truth

Letting Marketing Be Your Own Dr. OZ

•  Implying magical goodness or benefits when they are unknown / unsubstantiated –  Superfruits, supergrains

•  Romance copy and hot with marketers

•  Where is the ‘there’ there?

Making Consumers Think Its Whole Grain

•  CoCon

Consumers expect whole grain – not less WG than flour and sugar

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Loss of Trust Whole Grain

–  When the label ≠ reality –  Made with whole grain

•  It may be true – but does it make a dietary difference?

. If I ate all my servings of ‘bread made with whole grain,’ could I get the minimum recommended

Healthy Eating Index - NHANES Total with Grain

Patterns •  Highest with Cereals; Pasta/Cooked Cereal/

Rice; and Mixed Grains Patterns (NHANES)

•  Lowest Cakes/Cookies/ Pies Patterns •  US Children / Teens Calories from

grain-based desserts = sugar –sweetened beverages

•  Reedy & Krebs-Smith, JADA 2010: 1477-84

Conclusions •  Speak with One Voice – Get it together

– Too many groups; Consumers don’t care if you are a baker, grower, etc

•  Don’t let marketers overpromise •  Don’t miss golden opportunities •  Don’t suffer from wishful thinking or

promote indulgent foods as healthy •  Promote what’s true and good about

bread and grain foods

Conclusion

•  Don’t let your marketing team create a short term advantage that will cost the industry in the long term.

•  Tell the sustainable, nutritious story.

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