GLOBAL FOOD POLICY REPORT

Africa Region

Ousmane Badiane

Director for Africa

GDP GROWTH

AgGDP GROWTH

> 5%< 4%

> 5%~6%

POVERTY RATE 41%>44%

CHILD

MALNUTRITION<21%>23%

MAJOR PROGRESS AND ACHIEVEMENTS

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Ag PE GROWTH -1.34%7.7%

Ag PE SHARE 3.1%3.7%

CHALLENGES AND OBSTACLES: GLOBAL ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT

$11B

$77B

$41B

Ag IMPORTS

Ag. EXPORTS

2001 2011

$30B

CHALLENGES AND OBSTACLES:

STRUCTURAL IMBALANCES

Source: Epidemiological update of February 19, 2015” (Guinea and WHO, 2015); Cited in Fofana,

Ismael et al (2015)

Ebola in Guinea, February 19, 2015

CHALLENGES AND OBSTACLES: DISEASE AND CONFLICTS

REGION SCENARIO 1 SCENARIO 2 SCENARIO 3

Boke 0.0 -0.2 -0.7

Conakry -0.3 -1.2 -5.1

Faranah 0.0 -0.1 -0.3

Kankan 0.0 -0.2 -0.6

Kindia -0.1 -0.3 -1.1

Labe 0.0 0.0 0.0

Mamou 0.0 -0.1 -0.5

Nzerekore -0.2 -1.0 -4.2

Guinea -0.1 -0.3 -1.1

AGRICULTURAL LABOR SHOCK:

• Scenario 1: Reported cases & deaths x 2;

• Scenario 2: Reported cases & deaths x 2 + 1% displaced population;

• Scenario 3: Reported cases & deaths x 2 + 5% displaced population

Source: Fofana, Ismael et al (2015)

POTENTIAL IMPACT OF EBOLA ON AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT (%)

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SUSTAINING THE MOMENTUM

RENEWED COMMITMENTS AT MALABO

Ending Hunger by 2025 – Nutrition

Halving Poverty by 2025

Triple Intra-African Trade by 2025

Climate Smart Agriculture – Resilience

Mutual Accountability – Sector Governance

Women Empowerment

Youth employment

Africa Net export outlook by products by 2030

Cereal

s

Veg.

OilsDairy

Processed

FoodsBeverages

TobaccoSugar

Red MeatWhite

Meat

Cash

Crops

Vegetables

and Fruits

Fibers

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2008 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 2025

Thousa

nd m

etr

ic

tons

CEREALS ROOTS OTHER FOODS ALL STAPLES OTHER CROPS

ECOWAS

Intra-trade outlook by 2025 under current trends

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

CEREALS ROOTS OTHER FOODS ALL STAPLES OTHER CROPS

% o

f Base

line Q

uanti

ty

10% reduction in trade costs Removal of harrassment costs 10% increase in crop yields

180

284259

1183

1154 1290

1464

3999

2544

101

2560

995 1809

5032 4706

Absolute numbers are in parentheses

ECOWAS

Changes in trading cost and yields and Intra-trade by 2025

Good Policies are not a solution for everything

Bad Policies are a problem for everything else

Policy Reversal would jeopardize ongoing growth

recovery across Africa

• Risk of return to failed policies of 60s and 70s

– No institutional memory

– New generation of leaders

– Stronger fiscal positions

– More open, democratic systems

– Populist pressures and tendencies

SECTOR GOVERNANCE AND QUALITY OF POLICY PROCESSES

0

50

100

150

200

250

Agricultural Price Index (Real), 1970-2013

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

Yearly rainfall by region (mm)

Southern Eastern Central

Western Northern

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

Number of African countries with armed conflict, 1975-2013

0

50

100

150

200

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

Oil and Mining Price Index (Real), 1970-2013

Crude oil Metals and minerals

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0

10

20

30

40

501970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)

East Africa Southern Africa West Africa

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

International Reserves as Percentage of Total GDP (%)

East Africa Southern Africa

West Africa Sub-Saharan Africa

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

Share

(%

)

Net Direct Investment as Share of GDP (%)

Southern Africa East Africa West Africa

Nominal Rate of Assistance to African Agriculture

Source: Anderson and Masers (2007)

Transition to improved review and dialogue processes

Completed country JSR Assessment Reports

SECTOR GOVERNANCE AND QUALITY OF POLICY PROCESSES

14 Country Needs Assessments completed

CNAs

SECTOR GOVERNANCE AND QUALITY OF POLICY PROCESSES