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Rural Development Report 2016Fostering inclusive rural transformation
Stockholm, 12 December 2016
Paul Winters Officer-in-Charge, Strategy and Knowledge Department & Director, Research and Impact Assessment Division
International Fund for Agricultural Development
2
Agenda 2030 creates a dramatic challenge
Report questions
Analysis of the speed of structural and rural transformations and poverty reduction in 60 countries from 5 developing regions.
Period: 1995-2015
3
What are the consequences of transformations for rural poverty reduction and inclusion?
What can the principal actors do to promote an inclusive rural transformation?
What are the different pathways of structural and rural transformation across the developing world?
1)
2)
3)
Structural Transformation• Increasing importance of industry
and service sector • Productivity gains
• Rural-urban migration• Urbanization• Demographic transition
Measured variables
4
Rural Transformation • Technologically advanced, efficient
and competitive agriculture • Increasing commercialization
• Rising agro-processing• Increasing importance of nonfarm
activities in rural household income
Rural Inclusion• Extent to which different rural sectors can enjoy available rights and
opportunities (women, Indigenous People and ethnic minorities, and youth)
Proxy: change in the share of non-agricultural activity (industry and services) in GDP (%)
Proxy: change in agricultural value added per worker (%)
Proxy: changes in the rural poverty rate (%)
5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1980 1990 2000 2010
Services
Industry
Agriculture
Sector Share (%)
All Regions
Economic growth tends to lead to structural transformation thereby changing, but not diminishing, the role of agriculture
Decrease in agric. share increases in agric. and agro-industrial productivity
6
Rural sector has become more diverse
Structural transformation in the economy is accompanied by rural transformation
Agrifood Industry Output per Capita (US$)
Share of Agriculture in GDP (%)
100
150
200
1991-95 1996-00 2001-05 2006-1010
20
25
15
Non-farm Share of Rural Household Incomes (%)
37%
47%
51%6050403020100
Africa Latin America Asia
But…
To what extent have these transformations been inclusive?
7
How have these changes affected small-scale rural farmers?
Structural transformation, rural transformation and inclusion
Rapid structural or rural transformation do not automatically lead to rapid rural poverty reduction
8
Total Countries
StructuralTransformation
RuralTransformation
Rural PovertyReduction
FAST
SLOW
32 countries 19 countries
1 country 8 countries
Rural Inclusion
Fast Slow
Tran
sfor
mat
ion
Slow
Fast
9
Rural development strategies for inclusive rural transformation are context-specific but structured
Amplify &
AccelerateAccelerate
AmplifyAdapt
Rural Development Objectives
Rural transformation happens as part of a broader process of structural transformation altering the role of agriculture and broadening rural investment opportunities.
Is rural development passé in an urbanizing world?
Inclusive rural transformation does not happen automatically, it must be made to happen.
Promoting inclusive rural transformation means making the right strategic decisions in each of the different contexts.
10
RDR key messages
Investing in the development and wide adoption of agricultural technology and innovation to boost smallholder productivity
11
Structural and rural transformation hinge on boosting the productivity of the agrifood system, including smallholders, which requires innovation
12
Rural transformation is linked to changing domestic food markets requiring actions to facilitate the inclusion of smallholders and the rural poor
Investing in better, more transparent, more efficient, and more inclusive domestic food markets
Investing in land and natural resource governance and institutions to ensure inclusiveness
13
With transformation, land and natural resource governance and institutions that shape performance must evolve and be made inclusive
Four DecadesInvesting in Rural PeopleFostering Rural Transformation
Thank you