Boko haram and mass atrocities training activity

Assessing Risks for Mass Atrocities in Northeast Nigeria © START, June 2015 1

TRAINING ACTIVITY

Assessing Risks for Mass Atrocities in Northeast Nigeria EXERCISE OVERVIEW AND LEARNING OBJECTIVES This exercise is designed to familiarize the participants to one method for assessing the risks of mass atrocities in a context of terrorism. Specifically, the exercise will be carried out to assess risks in northeast Nigeria (the states of Borno, Yobe, and Adamawa), where the terrorist group Jamā'at Ahl as-Sunnah lid-Da'wah wa'l-Jihād, more commonly known as Boko Haram, has carried out a running campaign of terrorism and insurgency. Learning objectives for this training activity include the following:

Participants will become familiarized with the United Nation’s “Framework of Analysis for Atrocity Crimes: A Tool for Prevention”; Participants will enhance their knowledge of the current state of conflict in Nigeria’s northeast; Participants will become more aware of the players engaged in insurgency/terrorism and counter-insurgency/counter-terrorism in Nigeria’s northeast; Participants will be able to apply generalized framework indicators to a specific conflict and assess specific actors/populations at risk for becoming perpetrators

of mass atrocities.

RISK FACTORS AND INDICATORS For each risk factor, mark the cell for the actor or actors to which it applies. Risk factors may impact only one actor or all of them. Indicators are illustrative examples of given risk factors, but they may not be comprehensive. Therefore, another “other” category is provided. Base your judgment primarily on the material presented; if using outside knowledge or information, note that use. Be prepared to explain your group’s reasoning for marking the actors. Each group will be assigned two of the risk factors to assess. Groups will be given 20 minutes to complete their assessment.

Risk Factor1 Indicator Boko Haram

Nigerian Military

Nigerian Police

Civilian Joint Task Force

Other Militaries

Situations of armed conflict and other forms of instability

Current armed conflict Security crisis (including threats of external intervention, terrorism) Humanitarian crisis Abrupt or irregular regime change Growing nationalist, armed, or radical opposition Political repression Economic scarcity of resources or disputes over their use Economic contraction at national level Acute poverty, mass unemployment, or horizontal inequalities Mass protests Exclusion/tensions based on identity Other indicator

1 Risk factors and indicators are taken from United Nations Office on Genocide Prevention and the Responsibility to Protect, “Framework of Analysis for Atrocity Crimes: A Tool for Prevention,” (New York: United Nations, 2014), http://www.un.org/en/preventgenocide/adviser/pdf/framework%20of%20analysis%20for%20atrocity%20crimes_en.pdf.



Nigerian Military

Nigerian Police


Other Militaries

Serious violations of human rights and humanitarian law

Past or present restrictions to/violations of human rights and humanitarian law Past acts of genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes, or incitement Policy or practice of impunity for serious violations of human rights and humanitarian law or atrocity crimes

Inaction, reluctance or refusal to stop planned, predictable, or ongoing violations Continued support to groups accused of involvement in violations Justification or denial of violations Politicization or absence of reconciliation or transitional justice processes Widespread mistrust in state institutions Other indicator

Weakness of state structures

Insufficient legal frameworks for protection of human rights Insufficient resources, training for national institutions, particularly judicial, law enforcement and human rights

Lack of independent and impartial judiciary Lack of effective civilian control of security forces High levels of corruption or poor governance Absence or inadequate mechanism for oversight and accountability Lack of awareness/training on human rights and humanitarian law to military forces, irregular forces, or other relevant actors

Lack of capacity to ensure compliance with international humanitarian standards in conduct of war

Lack of resources for reform or institution-building Insufficient resources to implement overall measures to protect populations Other indicator

Motives/incentives to use violence

Political motives aimed at attainment/consolidation of power Economic interests, including of elites or identity groups, to control distribution of resources

Strategic or military interests Other interests, including homogenization of a territory Real or perceived threats posed by protected groups, populations, or individuals, against interests or objectives of perpetrators

Real or perceived membership of or support for armed opposition groups, by protected groups, populations or individuals

Supremacist or extremist ideologies Politicization of past grievances, tensions or impunity Inadequately addressed social trauma caused by past violent producing feelings of loss, displacement, or injustice

Other indicator



Nigerian Military

Nigerian Police


Other Militaries

Capacity to commit atrocity crimes

Availability of personnel and arms or financial resource for their procurement Capacity to transport/deploy personnel and to distribute arms/ammunition Capacity to encourage or recruit large numbers of supporters and the means to mobilize them

Strong culture of obedience to authority and group conformity Links with other armed forces or non-state armed groups Presence of commercial actors that serve as enablers Financial, political or other support of influential or wealthy national actors Armed, financial, logistic, training or other support from external actors Other indicator

Absence of mitigating factors

Limited or lack of empowerment mechanisms for groups, populations, or individuals to protect themselves

Lack of strong, organized and representative civil society and free, diverse media Lack of interest by international civil society or of access to international media Limited presence of UN, INGOs, or other regional/international actors in country Lack of exposure or presence of political or economic relations with other states Limited state cooperation with international/regional human rights mechanisms Lack of incentives or willingness of parties to engage in dialogue, make concessions, or receive support from international community

Limited interest or failure of other states, international, or regional organizations to support state to exercise its responsibility to protect populations

Lack of support by neighboring states to protect at-risk populations Lack of early warning mechanism Other indicator

Enabling circumstances or preparatory actions

Imposition of emergency laws or extraordinary security measures Suspension or interference with vial state institutions Strengthening of the security apparatus, its reorganization or mobilization against protected groups

Acquisition of large quantities of arms/ammunition Creation or increased support to militia or paramilitary groups Imposition of strict control on the use of communication channels Expulsion of or refusal to allow NGOs, international organizations or media Increased violations of the right to life, physical integrity, liberty or security of populations

Increases in serious acts of violence against women and children, Imposition of life-threatening living conditions or the deportation, seizure, collection, segregation, evacuation, or forced displacement of populations

Destruction or plundering of essential goods Marking people or property based on group affiliation Increased politicization of identity, past events or motives to engage in violence Increased inflammatory rhetoric, propaganda campaigns or hate speech Other indicator



Nigerian Military

Nigerian Police


Other Militaries

Triggering factors Sudden deployment of security forces or commencement of armed hostilities

Spillover of armed conflicts or tensions in neighboring countries International measures perceived as threatening to state’s sovereignty Abrupt or irregular regime changes Attacks against leaders, prominent persons, or opposition groups and/or terrorist attacks

Real or perceived acts of religious intolerance Acts of incitement or hate propaganda Elections or censuses or their supporting activities Sudden disruptions to economy or workforce Discovery of natural resources or commencement of exploitation that may affect livelihood or sustainability

Commemoration of past events that can exacerbate group tensions Launching or canceling of events related to accountability processes, especially if perceived as unfair

Other indicator Other Notes:


REPORTING OUT

During the “Reporting Out” period, indicate here the overall level of risk (low/medium/high) for each factor for each actor. Space is also provided for notes.

Risk Factor Boko Haram Nigerian Military Nigerian Police Civilian Joint Task Force Other Militaries

Armed conflict/ other instability

Violations of human rights/humanitarian law

State weakness

Motives/incentives to use violence

Capacity to commit atrocity crimes

Absence of mitigating factors

Enabling circumstances or preparatory actions

Triggering factors


Other Notes: ADDITIONAL INFORMATION To provide feedback, or for any correspondence relating to this training activity or the supporting research, please contact:

Amy Pate Research Director, START University of Maryland [email protected]

The National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) is supported in part by the Science and Technology Directorate of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security through a Center of Excellence program based at the University of Maryland. START uses state‐of‐the‐art theories, methods and data from the social and behavioral sciences to improve understanding of the origins, dynamics and social and psychological impacts of terrorism. For more information, contact START at [email protected] or visit www.start.umd.edu. This research was supported by a Centers of Excellence Supplemental award from the Office of University Programs of the Department of Homeland Security with funding provided by the Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) office of the Department of Defense. The author’s travel to the field was supported by the Domestic Nuclear Detection Office (DNDO) of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS). The views and conclusions contained in this document are those of the author and should not be interpreted as necessarily representing the official policies, either expressed or implied, of SMA, DoD, DNDO, DHS, or START. This training activity was developed and first used for the Professional Training Program on the Prevention of Mass Atrocities, sponsored by the Montreal Institute for Genocide Studies in cooperation with the Human Rights Research and Education Centre, and held June 15-17, 2015 in Ottawa, Canada.

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Boko haram and mass atrocities training activity