Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Presentation given to the 2014 Valdosta-Lowndes County Chamber of Commerce Economic Summit.
Citation preview
By the Numbers:Lowndes County in 2040
Valdosta-Lowndes County Chamber of Commerce
2014 Economic SummitAugust 2014
The Art of Site Selection
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 40
1
2
3
4
5
6
2040 Socioeconomic Data Study
• Transportation, Economic Development, Land Use, Housing
• Planning for the Future• Infrastructure Improvements• Need for Services• Federal and State Regulations• Partnership - MPO, County, Cities
2040 Socioeconomic Data Study
• What will Lowndes County look like in 2040?• 5 Year Increments; 2010-2040• Population• Housing• Employment (broad)• Foundation for planning and growth strategies
2040 Socioeconomic Data Study
• Transportation (Req.)– Population– Households– Median HH Income– Employment
• Manufacturing• Wholesale• Service• Retail
– Student Enrollment
• Additional Data– Race/Sex/Age– Housing Ownership– Housing Type– Housing Units– Housing Type– Household Size– Housing Vacancy– Unemployment– Educational Attainment– Labor Force
Population
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 20450
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
Total Population
Population – Race
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 20400
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
Race in Lowndes County
White Black American Indian Asian Other Multi Racial
Population – Hispanic Ethnicity
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 20400
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
Hispanic Ethnicity in Lowndes County
Hispanic
Population Observations
• By 2030 Whites will be in the minority• Hispanic population expected to double• Lowndes County will be more diverse, multi-
racial
Population – Age
Under 5 5-13 14-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 Over 650
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
Age by Year
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Population – School Age
Under 5 5-13 14-240
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
Lowndes County Population - School Ages
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
School Enrollment
Total Students0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
Lowndes County School Enrollment
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
24,000
Educational Attainment
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 20400
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
Lowndes County HS Education
Less than HS Some 9-12 HS or GED
Educational Attainment
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 20400.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
40.00%
45.00%
50.00%
High School Only % over 25
Less than HS Some 9-12 HS or GED
Educational Attainment
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 20400
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
Advanced Education in Lowndes County
Some College Associates Bachelors Graduate
Educational Attainment2014 2040
Less than 9th Grade 2.9% 0%
Less than HS 16.5% 3.9%
HS Diploma/GED 31.8% 29.5%
Some College 20.9% 28.4%
Associates 6.9% 9.6%
Bachelor’s 13.4% 18.4%
Graduate 7.6% 9.82%
2014: EMSI 2Q2014, Georgia Power, The are of Site Selection
Population – Age
Under 5 5-13 14-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 Over 650
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
Age by Year
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Education Observations
• School aged children live here• After college, large numbers leave• Where to put all of these students– Traditional vs. Online Classes?
• HS only education continues to rise, but fall as a percentage of total adults (30%)
Population – Workforce
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 20400
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
Lowndes County Workforce
25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64
35-54 will be the workforce
Employment Sectors
• Service (everything that is not below)– Military, government,
education, healthcare, etc.
• Retail• Manufacturing• Wholesale
Michael Rivera
Employment
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 20400
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
Employment Sectors
Service Employment Retail Employment Manufacturing Employment Wholesale Employment
Employment
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 20400
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Manufacturing Employment
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 20400
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Wholesale Employment
Employment
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 20400
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
Service Employment
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 20400
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
Retail Employment
Employment
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 20400
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
Employment Sectors
Service Employment Retail Employment Manufacturing Employment Wholesale Employment
Employment
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 20400
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
6.2%
6.4%
6.6%
6.8%
7.0%
7.2%
7.4%
7.6%
7.8%
8.0%
8.2%
Labor Force and Unemployment
Labor Force Unemployment %
Employment – Commuting
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 20400
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
200000
Daytime Population vs Resident Population
Daytime Population Total Pop
11,300
Population – Age
Under 5 5-13 14-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 Over 650
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
Age by Year
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Employment Observations
• 2015 – 25-34 is largest employed population, by 2040 35-54 is largest group
• All sectors grow, just not as much as Service• Is unemployment in the 6-7% range the new
norm?• Regional economy with commuters, need the
infrastructure to support
Owner vs. Renter
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 20400%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Owner vs. Renter Occupancy
Owner Renter
Housing Type
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 20400
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
Housing Type
Single Family Multi-Family Manufactured
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 40
1
2
3
4
5
6
Aspirant Communities – Population*
Rank County Metro State Population Growth %*1 Lee Opelika AL 85.46%2 Houston Warner Robins GA 58.80%3 Warren Bowling Green KY 49.70%4 Montgomery Clarksville TN 47.56%5 Morgan Decatur AL 34.78%6 Lowndes Valdosta GA 34.76%7 Clarke Athens GA 33.09%8 Nash Rocky Mount NC 21.90%9 Forrest Hattiesburg MS 21.55%
10 Floyd Rome GA 20.26%11 Florence Florence SC 13.62%12 Houston Dothan AL 8.54%13 Rapides Alexandria LA 6.21%14 Ouachita Monroe LA 4.13%15 Wayne Goldsboro NC No Data
*Change from base year to future year
*2035 or 2040 Transportation Plans
Aspirant Communities – Employment*
*2035 or 2040 Transportation Plans
Rank County Metro State Employment Growth %*1 Lee Opelika AL 104.42%2 Florence Florence SC 58.21%3 Montgomery Clarksville TN 52.41%4 Houston Warner Robins GA 48.90%5 Warren Bowling Green KY 44.42%6 Lowndes Valdosta GA 40.01%7 Clarke Athens GA 38.29%8 Forrest Hattiesburg MS 36.48%9 Morgan Decatur AL 34.79%
10 Houston Dothan AL 29.38%11 Floyd Rome GA 19.66%12 Rapides Alexandria LA 18.28%13 Ouachita Monroe LA 10.00%14 Nash Rocky Mount NC 0.00%15 Wayne Goldsboro NC No Data
Aspirant Communities – Overall*
Sum County Metro State1 Lee Opelika AL2 Houston Warner Robins GA3 Montgomery Clarksville TN4 Warren Bowling Green KY5 Lowndes Valdosta GA6 Florence Florence SC7 Morgan Decatur AL7 Clarke Athens GA9 Forrest Hattiesburg MS
10 Floyd Rome GA11 Nash Rocky Mount NC11 Houston Dothan AL13 Rapides Alexandria LA14 Ouachita Monroe LA15 Wayne Goldsboro NC
*2035 or 2040 Transportation Plans
So where are we going?
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 40
1
2
3
4
5
6
Common Community Vision
A resilient community where partnerships and coordination
promote regional success in economic development,
education, infrastructure, and a high quality of life.
Common Community Vision
• Support Economic Engines• Workforce Training – technical and career
skills, public/private partnerships• Encourage small businesses• Regional strategy• Education -> 21st Century workforce• Coordinated Governments Services
Where does Transportation Fit?
• Partnerships and Resources• Transportation Infrastructure– Promote ED, private investment
• Improve walkability and bikeability• Regional Connectivity• Multi-modal transportation system– Public transit, public/private partnerships, safety,
airport services
2040 Transportation Vision Plan
• August-September 2014; Public Input• Project Selection/Prioritization• Travel Demand Model Development• Multi-modal transportation options• June-August 2015; Final Public Input• September 2015; Adoption of Plan
Corey Hull, AICP
Southern Georgia Regional CommissionValdosta-Lowndes Metropolitan Planning Organization
[email protected]/transportation
