Current State of Migration in Mediterranean Countries: Challenges and opportunities for

migration governance

Strengthening Migration Governance: The role of Inter-institutional Coordination and

evidence-based policy making / 27-28 October 2016 – Tunis, Tunisia

By: Friedrich Poeschel, International Migration Division

Funded by the

European Union

République Tunisienne Ministère des Affaires Etrangères

1. Continuing emigration from MENA to OECD countries

2. Existence of large diasporas in the OECD

3. Return migration to MENA countries

4. International students

5. Remittances

6. Transit migration

in MENA countries

7. Emerging permanent

immigration to MENA countries

Outline of the presentation:

seven challenges and opportunities

Drawing on analyses of emigration

Flows from Syria to the OECD higher than

from Morocco, but legal migration is stable

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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Syria

Lebanon

Iraq

Tunisia

Egypt

Algeria

Iran

Morocco

Main migration flows from MENA countries to OECD countries

Source:

OECD

International

Migration

Database

• Total level of legal migration flows from MENA countries is stable at 300k per year,

corresponding to 5% of total flows to OECD in 2014.

• Morocco is main origin: 27% of legal migration flows from MENA to OECD in 2014;

Iraq and Algeria account for 14% each.

• Main destinations of legal flows: France (21%), USA (18%) and Germany (14%).

• In Italy, most net migration flows fell in the wake of the economic crisis.

• In Spain, net flows from Morocco and Algeria even became negative.

Net migration flows to Italy and Spain

have tended to fall Net migration flows from selected MENA countries to Italy and Spain

Source:

OECD

International

Migration

Database

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15

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35

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45

Morocco

Egypt

Tunisia

Algeria

-40

-20

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80

Morocco

Egypt

Tunisia

Algeria

Italy Spain

Intentions to emigrate remain high in the

population of MENA countries

Emigration intentions in the MENA countries, 2007-2013

Source: Gallup World Poll

• Emigration intentions are particularly high among those aged 15-24 (up

to 40-45% in Algeria, Lebanon, Morocco and Tunisia)

• Also higher for highly-educated persons: on average 27%, with 22-25%

in Algeria and Egypt and about 30% in Morocco and Tunisia.

The labour market situation appears to be

the main reason for emigration

Change needed for potential emigrants to stay, selected MENA countries, 2010-2014

Source:

Gallup

World

Poll

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Other reasons

More freedoms

Better opportunities for education

Improvements in the economy

Find a job or a better job

Tunisia

Morocco

Algeria

Egypt

percentages

Challenge No.1 for migration governance:

how to manage ongoing emigration

• How can the process of emigration be included in

the development planning of the origin country?

• How to achieve a triple-win situation? E.g. in

seasonal labour migration, how to ensure certain

standards for working conditions (such as in the

MISMES project between Morocco and Spain)?

• How can migrants be supported through pre-

departure services such as language training?

• How can migrants’ qualifications be made more

transferable or readily recognisable, so that they

work less often in jobs they are overqualified for?

Many MENA countries have large

diasporas in OECD countries

Stocks of emigrants in the OECD, main MENA origin countries, 2000/01 and 2010/11

• 8 million emigrants from MENA countries resided in the OECD in 2010/11.

• Numbers were highest in France (2.7 million, 1/3 of all in the OECD), the

United States (1.1 million), Spain (700k), Italy (550k) and Canada (500k).

• Stocks in Germany, Israel and the United Kingdom were close to 400k.

Source: Database of Immigrants in OECD Countries (DIOC)

High emigration rates for highly-qualified

persons and health professionals

Emigration rates (in %), 2010/11

Source: Database of Immigrants in OECD Countries (DIOC), OECD (2015) « Connecting With Emigrants »

• In 2010/11, more than 1 in 3 of all emigrants from MENA countries had a

tertiary education.

• However, many health professionals born in MENA countries might have

been trained in the destination country.

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12000

Emigrated persons (left scale) Emigration rates in % (right scale)

Doctors Nurses

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non

Highly-educated All education levels

Health professionals born in selected MENA countries, 2010/11

Emigrants from the MENA countries are

highly entrepreneurial Self-employed persons as a share of all employed persons by place of birth, 2014

• The share of self-employment among emigrants from MENA countries is

almost always higher than among native-born persons.

• Challenge No. 2: how to mobilise emigrants’ skills, their networks and

capital for economic development in the origin country?

Source: EU-LFS except USA (CPS).

Return migrants can boost

entrepreneurship in their origin country

Professional status of Moroccan emigrants after return (in percent), 2014

• Among return migrants in Morocco, the share of employers is almost three

times as high as for the total population.

• Challenge No. 3: how to facilitate the reintegration of return migrants,

including entrepreneurs who are not accustomed to the local procedures?

Source: 2014 Moroccan census (RGPH).

• MENA students account for 7% of all international students in OECD countries

• Their number has grown by 9% from 2013 to 2014

• USA is main destination (33%), followed by France (27%) and UK (13%)

• Challenge No.4: how to facilitate academic exchange and mobility, not “brain drain”?

220 000 students from MENA countries

enrolled at OECD institutions

International students from MENA countries enrolled in OECD countries in 2014

Source : OECD Education Database (OECD, 2016)

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<------------------------------------ Left axis Right axis ------------------------------------------->

Remittance flows have been stable over

the past three years

Remittance flows to selected MENA countries in millions of current USD, 2005-2014

• In total, 50 billion currents USD were remitted to MENA countries in

2014, corresponding to more than 2% of the region’s GDP.

Source: OECD (2015) « Connecting With Emigrants » based on World Bank data

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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Egypt

Morocco

Tunisia

Algeria

MENA total(right scale)

The MENA region exhibits the highest

costs of sending money

Remittance costs by destination

• Remittances to the MENA region cost at least 3-5% of the transferred sum,

while transfers to most other world regions can be made for below 3%

• Challenge No. 5: how to provide secure, low-cost and reliable banking

services across borders?

Source: OECD (2016) « Recruiting Immigrant Workers: Europe » based on World Bank data.

Challenge No.7: Developing policies to manage

permanent immigration and integration

• Economic development and growth attract labour

migrants to more and more MENA countries, often

first from neighbouring countries.

• Irregular migrants can abandon their journey to

Europe, so that initial transit migration slowly turns

into permanent immigration.

• A persistent irregular situation might limit the

economic contribution from irregular migrants and

undermine their integration in the long term.

Contact: Friedrich.Poeschel@oecd.org

OECD International Migration Division: www.oecd.org/migration

OECD International Migration Outlook, via www.oecd.org/migration/imo

OECD Directorate for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs: www.oecd.org/els

For further information