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The Brain Science of Scarcity:Applying What We Know
Crystal C. HallAssociate ProfessorEvans School of Public Policy and GovernanceUniversity of Washington
November 16, 2016 | 2016 RE:Conference
Understanding human behavior
● Rational agent model (normative)○ Well-informed○ Stable preferences○ Controlled and calculating
● Behavioral model (descriptive)○ Mediocre judgment○ Malleable preferences○ Impulsive
■ but behavior is often predictable!
A key observation:
Individuals are “irrational” but often extremely predictable!
Decision Making in the Context of Poverty
● Two views of behavior○ Rational agent view○ “Culture of poverty” view
● An alternative: A behavioral perspective○ Better predictor of behavior(Bertrand, Mullainathan & Shafir, 2006)○ Policy implications(Hall, 2012; Hall, Galvez & Sederbaum, 2014)
Scarcity and Decision Making
● General principle of psychological scarcity○ Time○ Money
● Behavioral patterns○ Constant need for trade-offs○ Short-term planning
*Huge policy implications here!
Scarcity and Decision Making
● Nuanced way of viewing the behavior of LI individuals○ Just as “irrational” as many others
(dieters, overstretched professionals….)
● Clearly extends to many decision domains…
Johnson & Goldstein, 2003
Taking Information
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Affirmation Neutral
Perc
ent T
akin
gTaking Information about EITC
Hall, Zhao & Shafir, 2014
Social and Behavioral Sciences Team (SBST)What is it?
The Social and Behavioral Sciences Team (SBST) is a cross-agency group of experts in applied behavioral science.
Psychology, Economics, Political Science, Design/Human Computer Interaction
Who is it?
SBST is chaired by the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) and includes representation from a dozen member agencies across the Federal Government, as well as offices within the Executive Office of the President.
What does it do?
SBST translates findings and methods from the social and behavioral sciences into improvements in Federal policies and programs for the benefit of the American people.
Applying Social & Behavioral Insights
1. Improving access – (e.g. active choices)
2. Promoting good choices – (e.g. default settings)
3. Setting policy parameters – (e.g. incentive structures)
SBST Project Areas(sbst.gov)
Promoting Retirement Security Responding to Climate Change
Advancing Economic Opportunity Assisting Job Seekers
Improving College Access Supporting Criminal Justice Reform
Improving Access to Health Care Improving Gov’t Efficiency
What are we trying
to achieve?
How does behavior
play a role in
outcomes?
How does Gov’t (or any org) interact
with people?
Any program or service has a direct connection with a citizen
• Focus on a key touchpoint (e.g., form or text message)
• Ideally, randomize treatment in order to test (to evaluate impact)
The outcome of interest is reliant upon individual action
• Ability to observe (and measure) the behavior of interest (e.g., program uptake)
The objective is already clearly defined
• Try to find a rigorous way to measure effectiveness and achievement towards an agency-defined outcome
Technical supplement to 2014 BIAS report.
http://www.acf.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/opre/bias_2014_report_technical_supplement.pdf
