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Economy of Kazakhstan:Myths, Reality,
New Economic policy
Introduction
Part I. Terms and terminology
Part II. Economic reality
Part III. New economic policy
Part IV. Infomedia and National Idea
Conclusions.
Appendixes
Part I
Import substitution and export orientation;
Market Models;
Financial terminology;
Book «Kazakhstan Economy: Myths and reality. New economic policy»Aidarkhan Kussainov, Almaty 2016
Part II
Intro; Resource curse; Investment attractiveness; Oil illusions; Oligopoly in economy; Consumer goods market: structure, import share, inflation; Processing (non-oil) Industry; Dollarization; Evolution of economic policy;
Book «Kazakhstan Economy: Myths and reality. New economic policy»Aidarkhan Kussainov, Almaty 2016
Part III
Introduction; Principles of new policy; Weak tenge, high savings rate; Tax&custom policy , state financing; Priorities in state investments; Export promotion; Changes in state governance;
Book «Kazakhstan Economy: Myths and reality. New economic policy»Aidarkhan Kussainov, Almaty 2016
Part IV
Introduction; Menthal de-dollarization; Changes in discussions on economic issues; Changes in public (social) contract; Thoughts on society changes; National Idea. How it works; Social fair state;
Book «Kazakhstan Economy: Myths and reality. New economic policy»Aidarkhan Kussainov, Almaty 2016
Appendixes
Papers written in jan-march 2007 Real Estate market research;
The role of real estate in economy of Kazakhstan;
Currency market analysis.;
Scenarios of financial market development
Book «Kazakhstan Economy: Myths and reality. New economic policy»Aidarkhan Kussainov, Almaty 2016
Terms and Terminology
Import substitution
Export orientation
Market models and specifics
Financial definitionBook «Kazakhstan Economy: Myths and reality. New economic policy»
Aidarkhan Kussainov, Almaty 2016
Import substitution. Outcomes
Example: villageOutcomes:Corruption;The blur of the role of state;Bet on internal market;Oligopolization.
Book «Kazakhstan Economy: Myths and reality. New economic policy»Aidarkhan Kussainov, Almaty 2016
Export orientation
Example: villageOutcomesCompetitionOligopoly – competitive advantage.IdeologyPatriotism
Book «Kazakhstan Economy: Myths and reality. New economic policy»Aidarkhan Kussainov, Almaty 2016
Market models
Perfect competition: polipoly. Monopoly.Oligopoly.Monopsony.
Each market requires its own regulation.
Book «Kazakhstan Economy: Myths and reality. New economic policy»Aidarkhan Kussainov, Almaty 2016
Financial terminology
Nominal exchange rate. Purchasing power parity Real effective rate index.National Fund and resourse curse.
Book «Kazakhstan Economy: Myths and reality. New economic policy»Aidarkhan Kussainov, Almaty 2016
Nominal rate and PPP.
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
ЗП USD (ППП)
ЗП USD (номинал)
Salary (USD PPP)
Salary (USD nominal)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Курс по ППП
Среднегодовой курс
PPP exchange rate
Average nominal rate
Book «Kazakhstan Economy: Myths and reality. New economic policy»Aidarkhan Kussainov, Almaty 2016
PPP coefficient
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Kazakhstan China Russian Federation
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7Kazakhstan China
Book «Kazakhstan Economy: Myths and reality. New economic policy»Aidarkhan Kussainov, Almaty 2016
Import tariffs (WB)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
RUS KAZ CHN
Book «Kazakhstan Economy: Myths and reality. New economic policy»Aidarkhan Kussainov, Almaty 2016
REER index
RF KZNom
. Rate
Import
proce.
Real.
Rate
Index REEER
Base yearprice
100 RR
500 TNG
5 500 TNG
5 100
Inflation 20% 10%
Next year price
120 RR
550 TNG
5 600 TNG
4,6 92
Price RF
Price KZ
Nom.
Rate
Import
proce.
Real.
Rate
Index REEE
R
Base yearprice
100 руб
500 тг 5 500
тнг 5 100
Inflation 10% 20%
Next year price
110 руб
600 тг 5
550 тг 5,45 109
Import price goes up. Domestic production and export increase.
Import cheaper – decline in domestic production
Book «Kazakhstan Economy: Myths and reality. New economic policy»Aidarkhan Kussainov, Almaty 2016
National Fund and Resourse Curse
Inflow of «unearned money» – currency appreciation – increase in internal income- inflation – decline in domestic industry
Example. Countries «Happy» vs «Ozz»National fund is to keep economy now.
Book «Kazakhstan Economy: Myths and reality. New economic policy»Aidarkhan Kussainov, Almaty 2016
Economy: Myths and reality.
Resource curse; Investment attractiveness; Oil illusions; Oligopoly in economy; Consumer goods market: structure, import
share, inflation; Processing (non-oil) Industry; Dollarization; Evolution of economic policy;
Book «Kazakhstan Economy: Myths and reality. New economic policy»Aidarkhan Kussainov, Almaty 2016
Dutch didease
-10000
-5000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
2001
2002
2003 20
420
0520
0620
0720
0820
0920
1020
1120
1220
1320
14
Прирост внешнего долга (искл. межфирменный долг)Прирост Национального Фонда
National Fund increase
85,0
90,0
95,0
100,0
105,0
110,0
115,0
-20 000,0
-15 000,0
-10 000,0
-5 000,0
0,0
5 000,0
10 000,0
15 000,0
20 000,0 Торговый баланс без экспорта нефти (индикатив)
РЭОК (правая ось)REEF (right axis)
Trade balance excl oil (ind)
Book «Kazakhstan Economy: Myths and reality. New economic policy»Aidarkhan Kussainov, Almaty 2016
External debts increase (excl interfirm and state)
NBRK changed the base year of REER
70,075,080,085,090,095,0
100,0105,0110,0115,0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Q1
2016
РЭОК 2000
РЭОК 2013REER 2013
REER 2000
Investment attractiventess
Foreign investments are Kazakhstani export.
Investments are sign and result of economic success. By their own they are not drivers.
Ratings and investment climate are secondary attribute
Book «Kazakhstan Economy: Myths and reality. New economic policy»Aidarkhan Kussainov, Almaty 2016
Investment flow
-2 000,0
0,0
2 000,0
4 000,0
6 000,0
8 000,0
10 000,0
Участие в капитале без реинвестиций
Долговые инструменты
Реинвестиции
Loans
Re-investments
0,0
10 000,0
20 000,0
30 000,0
40 000,0
50 000,0
60 000,0
70 000,0
80 000,0
90 000,0
31.1
2.20
0531
.12.
2006
31.1
2.20
0731
.12.
2008
31.1
2.20
0931
.12.
2010
31.1
2.20
1131
.12.
2012
31.1
2.20
1331
.12.
2014
31.0
3.20
1530
.06.
2015
"Свободный" долг
межфирменная задолженностьInterfirm loans
“Free” loans
Book «Kazakhstan Economy: Myths and reality. New economic policy»Aidarkhan Kussainov, Almaty 2016
Share capital excl reinvestments
Tax burden (PWC)
Book «Kazakhstan Economy: Myths and reality. New economic policy»Aidarkhan Kussainov, Almaty 2016
State financing
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000 Трансферты из Нац Фонда
Ненефтяные доходы
Доля трансфертов в доходах бюджета (прав. Ось)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
дек.12 июн.13 дек.13 июн.14 дек.14 июн.15
доля кредитов НУХ Байтерек в общем корпоративном портфеле банков второго уровня
Book «Kazakhstan Economy: Myths and reality. New economic policy»Aidarkhan Kussainov, Almaty 2016
Oil illusions
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
(про
гноз
)20
17 п
редп
ол20
18 п
редп
ол20
19 п
редп
ол20
20 п
редп
ол
Экспорт (млн. тонн)
Добыча (млн. тонн)
010000200003000040000500006000070000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
(про
гноз
)20
17 п
редп
ол20
18 п
редп
ол20
19 п
редп
ол20
20 п
редп
ол
Номинальные доходы от экспорта нефти (млн. долл. США)
Book «Kazakhstan Economy: Myths and reality. New economic policy»Aidarkhan Kussainov, Almaty 2016
Oligopoly. Regionalization matters.
Republican stat RealityАлматы
А
Б
В
Астана
Г
Д
Е
Актобе
И
К
Шымкент
Ж
З
Казахстан
А
Б
В
Г
Д
Е
Ж
З
И
К
Book «Kazakhstan Economy: Myths and reality. New economic policy»Aidarkhan Kussainov, Almaty 2016
Oligopoly. Value chain.
BazaarsBoutiquesRetailDrugstores
WholesellersDistributors Middlemen
Brend holders
Book «Kazakhstan Economy: Myths and reality. New economic policy»Aidarkhan Kussainov, Almaty 2016
Oligopoly. Examples.
Banking Telecom Pharma Construction Warehouses, malls, cinema. Agriculture Wholesale: petroleum, brand holders,
«middlemen».
Book «Kazakhstan Economy: Myths and reality. New economic policy»Aidarkhan Kussainov, Almaty 2016
Consumer goods market
0
50
100
150
200
250
Цена импорта
Маржа оптовика
Транспорт Маржа регионов
Розница Конечная цена
Import priceTransport
Wholesale margin
Region margin
Retail margin Final price
Book «Kazakhstan Economy: Myths and reality. New economic policy»Aidarkhan Kussainov, Almaty 2016
Import share in consumption
Book «Kazakhstan Economy: Myths and reality. New economic policy»Aidarkhan Kussainov, Almaty 2016
Import share in consumption
23
20
15
25
17
42
Services etc Domestic prod
"Import style" domesic goods Import trade margin
Import itself
Domestic goods Import
Book «Kazakhstan Economy: Myths and reality. New economic policy»Aidarkhan Kussainov, Almaty 2016
Inflation and devaluation
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
YtY devaluation Annual Inflation
Book «Kazakhstan Economy: Myths and reality. New economic policy»Aidarkhan Kussainov, Almaty 2016
Inflation drivers. Oligopoly and state monopsony (since 2009)
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Wholesale to retail ratio
Book «Kazakhstan Economy: Myths and reality. New economic policy»Aidarkhan Kussainov, Almaty 2016
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Import pricesProducers pricesWholesale prices
Processing (non oil) industry
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
Processing industry (excl. metallurgyand non-metal mineral production)
Consumer Import
Goals of state program (2011) «Productivity 2020»: «to 2015: …increase of
average capacity load of participants to 70 %;
to 2020 года:… average capacity load of participants to 80 %.»
Ready reserves for non-oil export are about 15 bln. USD– comparable with oil export volumes.
Book «Kazakhstan Economy: Myths and reality. New economic policy»Aidarkhan Kussainov, Almaty 2016
Importers vs Exporters
Distortion
Exporters – oil companies
Importers – domestic economy, SME
No domestic production.
Right
National production (exporters are part of it).
Import –supplemental, auxiliary purchases.
Book «Kazakhstan Economy: Myths and reality. New economic policy»Aidarkhan Kussainov, Almaty 2016
Dollarization (mentality)Weak in reality Strong in mentality
-10,00%-5,00%0,00%5,00%
10,00%15,00%20,00%25,00%30,00%35,00% External debt increase
(excl. state and interfirmdebts) to GDPBanks debt increase toGDP
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100% Share of USD-tied loans intotal loansShare of USD-tied mortgagesin all mortagages
250
300
350
400
450
Янва
рьАп
рель
Ию
льО
ктяб
рьЯн
варь
Апре
льИ
юль
Окт
ябрь
Янва
рьАп
рель
Ию
льО
ктяб
рьЯн
варь
Апре
льИ
юль
Окт
ябрь
2012 2013 2014 2015
thsd. Thg Model price
«Roof» index Almaty
Доходы от операций с недвижимостью (Алматы)
Book «Kazakhstan Economy: Myths and reality. New economic policy»Aidarkhan Kussainov, Almaty 2016
Income from real estate operations (Almaty mln tng)
Part III. New economic policy.Export orientation.
Weak tenge. High savings rate.
Market protection. Cheap and good non-tradeable sector
Active export marketing support
Social values change
Book «Kazakhstan Economy: Myths and reality. New economic policy»Aidarkhan Kussainov, Almaty 2016
Weak tenge. High savings
REER at 40-50 (relates to 6-7 tenge/rr.)
Expensive consumer loans and mortgages.
Stock market development conservation.
High inflation: 8-11% in 2016-2017, and 7-9% to 2018.
Book «Kazakhstan Economy: Myths and reality. New economic policy»Aidarkhan Kussainov, Almaty 2016
Houshold savings in banks
Book «Kazakhstan Economy: Myths and reality. New economic policy»Aidarkhan Kussainov, Almaty 2016
-2 500 000
-2 000 000
-1 500 000
-1 000 000
-500 000
0
500 000
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Net savings
Net savings (excl.mortgages)
Tax policy
Tax credits and restructuring.
Debt withdrowal
Moratorium on SME check
No change in VAT model
No sales tax
Progressive income tax
Book «Kazakhstan Economy: Myths and reality. New economic policy»Aidarkhan Kussainov, Almaty 2016
Custom policy
Import tariffs increase.
Non-tariff barriers development.
Tightening Kazakhstani position in EAEU being in.
Book «Kazakhstan Economy: Myths and reality. New economic policy»Aidarkhan Kussainov, Almaty 2016
State financing. National Fund.
Switch from investments and subsidies to loans for working capital. Decrease such exposure from 2018.
Financing of budget deficit in 2016-2018. Financing of priority sectors of economy
Book «Kazakhstan Economy: Myths and reality. New economic policy»Aidarkhan Kussainov, Almaty 2016
Priority sectors
Infrastructure: transportation, energy, communication.
Melioration and agriculture
Education
Health
Book «Kazakhstan Economy: Myths and reality. New economic policy»Aidarkhan Kussainov, Almaty 2016
Export promotion
Infrastructure
Export credits, guarantees and insurance
KazAid
Exporters Board
Information policy
Book «Kazakhstan Economy: Myths and reality. New economic policy»Aidarkhan Kussainov, Almaty 2016
Realization
Systematic, complex and macroeconomic approach
Government structure change. Reconsideration of state participation. Information media (space) management.
Ideas change.
Book «Kazakhstan Economy: Myths and reality. New economic policy»Aidarkhan Kussainov, Almaty 2016
Policy priciples
Systematic vs manual
Complex vs project or situation related
Macroeconomic vs “pactical”
Book «Kazakhstan Economy: Myths and reality. New economic policy»Aidarkhan Kussainov, Almaty 2016
Government structureCurrent Proposed
Integration Minister Energy National Economy Investmens and
development Culture&Sport Eduction&Science Health and social
development
TradeNatural resources Infrastructure IndustryRegional Development Information and CultureEducation, Science and
sport.Health and social
developmentBook «Kazakhstan Economy: Myths and reality. New economic policy»
Aidarkhan Kussainov, Almaty 2016
Quazi-state sector.
Liquidation of Samruk-Kazyna and other national holdings
Kaznex Invest capitalization and transfer of function from Damu.
Kazexportgarant capitalization.Changes in Development Bank of
Kazakhstan functions.Book «Kazakhstan Economy: Myths and reality. New economic policy»
Aidarkhan Kussainov, Almaty 2016
Part IV. Infomedia and national Idea.
De-dollarization
New information policy and media (space)
Changes in social contract. Thoughts on changes in society
Social fair stateBook «Kazakhstan Economy: Myths and reality. New economic policy»
Aidarkhan Kussainov, Almaty 2016
Part IV. Introduction
Book «Kazakhstan Economy: Myths and reality. New economic policy»Aidarkhan Kussainov, Almaty 2016
Information policy
Active policy
Board of Mass Media Governors
Focus on successes of businesses and people abroad
Promotion of kazakhstani goods
Book «Kazakhstan Economy: Myths and reality. New economic policy»Aidarkhan Kussainov, Almaty 2016
Social contract
From paternalism to partnership.Significant changes in society. (Separate research)
Support of public initiatives and financing NGO’s
New communication formats
Book «Kazakhstan Economy: Myths and reality. New economic policy»Aidarkhan Kussainov, Almaty 2016
Social specifics
15 – 25 world look formation. 25 – 35 realization. Carrier, family. 35 – 45 Thought about society. 45 – 60 surrounding improvement. 60+ Philosophy.
35-60 years – active social life
40-55 years – public opinion managementBook «Kazakhstan Economy: Myths and reality. New economic policy»
Aidarkhan Kussainov, Almaty 2016
Changes in society
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019
Доля в общем электорате
Доля в активной части
Доля во влияющей части
New generation in society
New generation in active part of society
New generation in managing part
Book «Kazakhstan Economy: Myths and reality. New economic policy»Aidarkhan Kussainov, Almaty 2016
Public mind evolution
We think Reality
Book «Kazakhstan Economy: Myths and reality. New economic policy»Aidarkhan Kussainov, Almaty 2016
StabilityAgreementPaternalism
DevelopmentCooperationPartnership
Value comparison
New Old
Practical care and local benefit.
Global care.
Family values. Close circle.
supporters, same-thinkers.
State – partner. State – feeder and protector.
Fair. Equality.
Real results. Programs and strategies.
Book «Kazakhstan Economy: Myths and reality. New economic policy»Aidarkhan Kussainov, Almaty 2016
National Idea
Characteristics. Light and pharos Simple and emotional Meet expectations 1-2 generationCreation and management. Stuffing Fine tuning Modification
Different mentality. Individual vs public
Competition Posession Time Expansion Attitude to the world Ethics
Book «Kazakhstan Economy: Myths and reality. New economic policy»Aidarkhan Kussainov, Almaty 2016
New senses of «Mangilik El»
New concept of social state in Kazakhstan.
Transformation to «society if mutual success» to 2025.
Book «Kazakhstan Economy: Myths and reality. New economic policy»Aidarkhan Kussainov, Almaty 2016