Future Cities Africa (FCA)GAMA Technical Group (GTG) Meeting

12th May 2016

1. Welcomeandintroductions- Ghana&London2. Updateonresilience.ioprogrammeandforwardplans

forJune- StephenPassmore3. AimsandnextstepsfortheGAMATechnicalGroup–

CatherineAllinson,FutureEarthLtd4. Earlyuse-casefindingsandprototypedevelopment–

RembrandtKoppelaar ICL&IIER5. Financingresilientinfrastructure(WASH)– Christoph

vonWaldersee6. Guestspeakers7. AOB8. NextstepsandClose

http://ecosequestrust.org/GAMA

Agenda

resilience.ioprogrammeà July● DFID Annual Review process – the funders. Beginning to

discuss next steps which could include a graphical userinterface, another sector, more WASH use cases

● Engagementwithministries, assemblies, TV and Radio

• June 13th – 22nd Debut events - Objectives• Evidence prototype is functional and benefits• Municipal interest in using WASH findings to inform

decision making• Interest to continue to develop resilience.io - WASH,

other sectors• Positive news stories on resilient city innovation

resilience.ioprogrammeà July● June 2016

• 13th – 22nd June interactive modelworkshops• Ministries – MLGRD &MWRWH, NDPC &MESTI• Academia – ILGS, UoG, KNUST• MMDAs, Cities, Community• Private sector

• Agendas – for discussion• Welcome and introductions – host• Introduction to resilience.io prototype• Host presentation on value of resilience.io• Introduction to the 3 Use Cases

• Findings and discussions• Interactive model run sessions (alter scenarios,

parameters, assumptions)• Summarise findings• Discuss next steps and identify expert user(s)

resilience.io platform

GAMA Technical Group

WASH SECTOR

Multiple Collaboratories

Aims and next steps

1. Collaboratory grows to cover all sectors with user friendly access points and nominated lead for each. It takes responsibility for M&E, reporting and dissemination of results from the resilience.io model.

2. Links to and between academic institutions are strengthened to build and share collaborative intelligence.

3. Professional networks are engaged especially with regard to project financing, apps and sustainable technologies which can be brought to GAMA

4. Use of data and information for vertical and horizontal engagement with communities and decision-makers and for creating business cases is achieved

Collaboratory is seen as forum for collaborative intelligence for planning and investment decisions

SUPPORT THE DEBUT WITH YOUR VOICE AND FEET15TH – 24TH JUNE 2016

Resilience.IO Results for meeting Water Demand in Ghana

Harry Triantafyllidis, Xiaonan Wang, Rembrandt Koppelaar and Koen H. van Dam

Department of Chemical Engineering, Imperial College London, UKIIER – Institute for Integrated Economic Research

12 May 2016

Resilience.IO platform

Results – Use Case 1 “On-going projects”

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Simulated Values 2010 2025Population 3,882,567 5,678,121Water Demand (no leaks) 346,938 m3/day 518,000 m3/dayWater Losses (leaks)* 153,438 m3/day 260,983 m3/day

*Assumed 27% leakage in pipe transport in 2010 & 2025

2015 : Existing potable water pipe connections

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2025 : New infrastructure to meet 100% improved water demands

12

n On-going / completed projects 2010 - 2025:¨ Kpong China Gezhouba (186,000 m3/day)¨ Kpong Tahal (28,000 m3/day)¨ Teshie Desalination plant (60,000 m3/day)¨ GAMA additional boreholes (21,000 m3/day)

n Model outcome à suggested:¨ Expansion source water treatment Lake Weija (175,000 m3/day)

n Potential alternative – already planned:¨ Asutuare project at Volta River (200,000 m3/day)

2025 : New pipes suggested to meet 100%improved water demands

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2025 : Water flows simulated with newinfrastructure in m3 per day (excludes leaks)

14

Results – Use Case 1 “On-going projects”

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Simulated Values 2010 2025Investment cost (USD)* / 954 millionOperational cost (USD) 42.6 million 81.3 millionOf which simulated:

- Electricity cost (USD) 1.86 million 8.7 million- Labour cost (USD) 12.8 million 17.0 million

*on top of current investments in on-going projects

To be continued…..

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• Use Case Report in the works – detailed results• June Demonstration Workshops in Accra• Prototype executable

UrbanResilienceAndTheNeedOfFinance

FinancingResilientInfrastructureAndRiskManagement

WebinarforGhana,May12th,2016

By:Christoph Waldersee,TheEcologicalSequestrationTrust

christoph.waldersee@ecosequestrust.org

Pleasefollowmeonmyjourneytoabetterwayofstrengtheningclimateresiliencewithafocusonhowtofinanceit:

1. Tacklechangingdisasterrisks&uncertainties2. Enhanceadaptivecapacity3. Addresspoverty&vulnerabilityandtheirstructuralcauses

1.0.

1.1 Infrastructure as the growth engine of the near future?

Bloomberg,27February2016:“G-20SeeksInfrastructurePushtoHelpBoostGlobalEconomy”http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-27/g-20-seeks-infrastructure-push-to-help-shore -up-global-economy

o “GlobalfinancechiefsaresteppinguptheircallfordevelopmentlenderssuchastheWorldBanktohelpsupporteconomicgrowthbyfurtheropeningtheinfrastructuretaps”

o “G-20financeministersandcentralbankersalsosaidinthedraftobtainedbyBloombergNewsthatthey’recommittedtoadvancinginvestmentbyfocusing"oninfrastructurebothintermsofquantityandqualityaspects“.”

1.2 Infrastructure is a “Public Good”

Safewater,cleanair,goodhealth,basiceducation,greenspaceetc.cannotbereplaced.Makingitstable,disasterproof&resilient,whilestill running&financingitfollowsthe

patternofanyotherhumanactivity:Incentiveswillreachmore!

Urbaninfrastructuremustberesilient &sustainableaspublicserviceisapublicgood.Buthowtofinanceit?

Thepolitical levelissettingtherules Theservice level

supplies, runs,maintainsit,andhastofinance it.Supply canbeeitherapublic,aprivate&oracommunity task

Citizensaredependingonthesupplyofsuchservicesandtheyarereadytopaybutonly inatransparentsystemallowingthemtoseeiftheycanafforditWearetalkingaboutastandard ofSustainablePublic&SocialWell-Being

Citizensneedto&wanttobesuppliedaccordingtoagreedstandards

ThefinancesectorneedtobeinvolvedwhensettingRESILIENT standardstofinancethisIncentivizing thefinancesectorthroughbankableprojectstotakethisup isessentialItneedstobecomepartofasystemthatisputting RESILIENT as its benchmark

Whoeverrunstheutilityhasprincipally agreedtothispublic&socialwell-beingstandardthecosts&potentialgainsbalancingoverall social wellbeing &economic profit (corporateornot)regardingtheinclusiveness, theresilient quality &affordable price ofthepublicservice

Thisisthepractical&legalbaseforanycostbenefitanalysis aswellasanintegralduediligenceallowinganyonetocalculatetherelatedfinancialcostInotherwords:Thisisthewaytomobilisefinance& investmentturning itinto bankableprojectsThose canbeofferedtothefinancialmarkets

Whicheverownership,publicorprivatesector,whicheversourceoffinance,theutilitysupplieristobejudgedby:KPIs madeevidentthrough dataread&interpretedbyalocal“Collaboratory” e.g.DataCloud

2.1 Infrastructure & Risk Management (2)

Infrastructureisunique andhastofollowitsspecificsetofrules.Todotherespectiveriskmanagementitneedstoincludeotherfactorsthanwhatacorporateriskanalysisassesses:

Ø Infrastructure fundamentallydealswithsocialwellbeingandinclusiveness

Ø Atthesametimeitstillbindslikeanyotherinvestmentamounts ofmonetarymeansturnedintofixed or hard-to-moveassets

2.2 Infrastructure & Risk Management (3)

Identifying,analyzingandeitheracceptingormitigatinguncertaintyintheinvestmentdecision-makingprocessalways directly dealswiththeriskofsocialwellbeing,ofinclusiveness anditsconsequencesforhumanbeings

Ø Allthisneedstobecountedinwhenquantifyingpotentiallossandweighingitwiththeintendedinvestmentobjectivesanditsoverallcost,thenassessingtheresultinginherentrisktolerance

Ø Inadequateriskmanagementwillcauseconsequencesforhumanbeings,forsocietyingeneral,fornatureorevenfortheplanetaryhealth

Givethecitizenawordinit,notonlyasavoter

3.2 Financing “Resilient” Infrastructure (3)

Moody’sstated&estimates:o “GreenBonds”worthUS$50billionareexpectedtobe

issuedin2016o In2015 greenbondsworthUS$42.4billionwereissuedo India &China were expectedtoleadgreenbondsissuanceso 105issuersraisedUS$42.4billionin197transactionsin

2015,average fundspertransactionaroundUS$215million,largestissuerraisingUS$17billion

4.0 Action Plan (1)

Whatweneedtodonow:

o Startanintegrated planningprocessbetweencity &potentialinvestor

o WorkingontheDevelopmentFinanceInstitutionstointegratetheagreedKPIsintotheirprojectfinanceandmakethemcompulsorywiththeaddressees (municipalities,regions,nations)

o Turntheagreed KPIs into“Green” and“Resilient”standardsfortheduediligenceforany privatesectorfinance,inparticularinfrastructure

o Workingoninstitutionalinvestorsand privateequityproviderswhoareconstantlyseekingnewinvestments astheyallovertheworldstartdisinvestingfromfossilfuelsandotherunsustainableventures

Municipalityand/orUrbanDevelopment

Agency

Policies

Thosearethesocietalneedsforhard&softinfrastructureineachdistrict,

municipality, citye.g. Goal:Integratedstrategicassessment,planning

&evidence

Privateinvestmente.g.loans, equity, etc.

Thosearetheinvestmentneeds

UrbanDevelopment

andInvestmentFund (UDIF)

Backed bye.g.GCF,AfDB,and/orbyinstitutionalinvestors&

otherinvestors

Projectpipeline (couldbeaPPP, orapublic,oraprivateproject,plus anyinnovative

finance)

Public investmente.g.fiscal,land,

bondsInvestmentincashandkind

Greenspaces

Culture

Infrastructure

• Oneprimeloantypetokeepcostslow• Coversfull andincrementalcostsofprojects• Longorshorttermfinancepossible• Assessments, data,modelling andM&Eare

bundledwithfunds

Results:Governance&technicalcapacitywillbemuchincreased!

Eligibility:• “Transformationalchange”

(e.g.accordingtoGCFrequirements)

• Carboncyclemanagement&overallGHGreduction

• Overallutility reductionunderanyaspectofresourceefficiency

• Innovation, adaptation&mitigationaccordingtoresilience.io standards

Thetool:UrbanDevelopment&Investment

Fund(UDIF)

4.2 Action Plan, Toolkit “Urban Development & Investment Fund”

1. Fund structure[amountspaid-in&management]canbepublic,privateormixed[noneedtoprescribeastructure]

2. Fundrevolves foranunlimitedtimeperiod3. [2-3%]Administrationfee,fromwhichmanagementcost,royalties/fees,etc.arepaid4. Oneprimaryloantype[advisable,butnotnecessarilyso],eitheratpreferentialinterestrateor

marketconditions5. Loancoversfullorincrementalcost[“LifeCycleCostingCalculator”acc.to“Harvardmodel”]6. Softcost/feasibility,enhanceddatamapping,modeling&meteringresultsbundledwithloan7. Primarycategoriesdeterminingeligibilityforaloan:

i. TransformationalchangeinregardtoGCFrequirementsii. Carboncyclemanagement/GHGreductioniii. Overallutility reductionunderaspectsofresourceefficiencyiv. Innovation, adaptation&mitigationaccordingtoTEST/resilience.io standards

8. Loans&structuredfinance[possibly includingequity]upto[xx]US$Millionwillbeconsidered9. Projectsrequirefullfeasibilitystudy,preferablyincludingacasestudyandawebstory10. FundReviewCommitteemeetsregularly[quarterlyorsimilar]11. Fundpolicy&governancereviewedregularly[everyXth year]

Thank you