The European Commission’s

science and knowledge service

Joint Research Centre

Future losses to critical

infrastructures due to

climate change

EC, OECD, PLACARD

Joint Expert meeting

on Disaster Loss Data

OECD, 26 October 2016

22

ann7Dalje

National Geographic

BY-SA3.0Travel

3

Methodological framework

(IPCC, AR5)

4

(IPCC, AR5)

Methodological framework

5

Damage to critical infrastructures

baseline 2020s 2050s 2080s

Windstorms

Coastal floods

River floods

Wildfires

Droughts

Cold waves

Heat waves

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

baseline 2020s 2050s 2080s

Ove

rall

clim

ate

risk

(bill

ion €/

year

)

Social

Industry

Energy

Transport

6

TIME

future

Change in the frequency and

intensity of hazards

Damage assessment

Climate hazards Exposed assets Reported Damages

Frequency and intensity of

hazards

Nuclear power plant in Spain

Port in Estonia

present

Damages to current infrastructure stock under future climate conditions

77

Damage information available

year 2010

dis_group Natural

dis_subgroup Hydrological

dis_type Flood

country_name Poland

location Cracovie, Vrasovie

origin Heavy rain

start_year 2010

start_month 5

start_day 17

end_year 2010

end_month 5

end_day 26

total_deaths 16

total_affected 100,000

total_dam ('000 US$) 3,080,000

What is the damage to critical infrastructures?

EM-DAT

88

total damage

per event

damage per critical

infrastructure type

Damage distribution over infrastructures

Expert survey +

literature review

Rail

waysRoads

Water

ways

Air

portsPorts

Heat

Cold

Drought

Fire

Flood

Coast

Wind

Sensitivity assets to hazards

national shares of the monetary value of sector-specific capital stock and gross value added

99

Understanding vulnerability is key

Understanding of vulnerability of infrastructures to different hazards is limited, and quantitative information on the sensitivity of critical infrastructures to weather-related hazards is largely absent

Priority 1. Understanding disaster risk

Objective 2: Promoting better

informed decision-making

Indicators to measureprogress

10

Fatalities from weather-related disasters

1111

Better data are crucial to properly assess current

and future disaster risk and to evaluate the cost-

effectiveness of risk reduction and adaptation

strategies

because our models are only as good as their input