MOVING THE SOUTH FORWARD IN THE NEW REALITY: A POST-ELECTION FUNDER BRIEFING

Welcome!

LaTosha BrownProject DirectorGrantmakers for Southern Progress Neighborhood Funders Group

Chantelle Fisher-BorneProject DirectorOut in the South Initiative Funders for LGBTQ Issues

The Southern Context: Perspectives from a long-time Southern social justice funder

Justin MaxsonExecutive DirectorMary Reynolds Babcock Foundation

Today’s Moderator

Page GleasonExecutive DirectorPro-Georgia

Chris Kromm Executive DirectorInstitute for Southern Studies

Erin ByrdExecutive Director Blueprint NC

Paulina Helm-HernandezCo-DirectorSoutherners on New Ground (SONG)

Monica HernandezExecutive DirectorSoutheast Immigrant Rights Network

Today’s Panelists

Multi-state analysis of election results in the South

Chris Kromm Executive DirectorInstitute for Southern Studies

THE SOUTH & 2016 ELECTIONS

Chris KrommDecember 2016

 

Share of Electoral College vote 2016

SOUTHERN32%

NON-SOUTHERN

68%

Source: Census Bureau

Expected gains in Congressional seats and Electoral College, 2020 Census

Source: UNC Population Center/Carolina Demography

+2

+1

+1

+1

Voting in Southern States: 2012 vs. 2016Source: U.S. Elections Project/CNN/State Election Websites

2016 elections in North CarolinaSource: NC State Board of Elections

PRESIDENTTrump 49.8%

U.S. SENATEBurr 51.1%

GOVERNORCooper

49.0%

ATTY GENERALStein

50.3%

NC SUPREME CRTMorgan54.5%

LT. GOVERNORForest51.8%

2012 vs. 2016 electorate and race: Georgia

Source: GA Secretary of State

RACE 2012 2016

White 61.4% 61%

Black 29.9% 27.6%

“Hispanic/ 3.2% 4.8%Asian/Other”

Unknown 5.5% 6.6%

Share of population born outside the South

Source: Census Bureau/The New York Times

North Carolina exit pollsSource: Exit polls/CNN

2016 vote: metros, small cities, rural areas

Source: Exit polls/Daily Yonder

2016 Elections: Size of victorySource: New York Times

The Trump voteSource: New York Times

Shift in legislative balance of powerSource: State legislature websites

FL +4GA +2TX +6

NC – no net change

AR +7KY +18SC +3TN +2

Balance of power in legislaturesSource: State legislature websites

WV Senate

VA Senate

TX Senate

TN Senate

SC Senate

NC Senate

MS Senate

LA Senate

KY Senate

GA Senate

FL Senate

AR Senate

AL Senate

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

DEMGOPIND/VAC

2016 Trifectas: GOP control of state government

Source: State government websites

Cities as a base of progressive power

Source: Census Bureau 2015 estimates, Ballotpedia

Partisan affiliation by state, 2015Source: Gallup

Most gerrymandered Congressional districts (2013)

Source: The Washington Post

Gerrymandering 2016: Partisan voter mismatch

Source: The Washington Post

Poll closures since 2013 Source: Leadership Conference Education Fund

Ex-felon voter disenfranchisement rates

Source: Sentencing Project

Source: Ballotpedia/Facing South, 2016

Alabama “Right to Work” Amendment Passed

Arkansas Medical Marijuana Passed

Florida Utility-Backed Solar Power Defeated

Medical Marijuana Passed

Georgia ”Opportunity School Districts”/Charters Defeated

Virginia “Right to Work” Amendment Defeated

2016 Southern Ballot Initiatives

Questions or more information

CHRIS KROMM ALLIE YEEExecutive Director/Publisher Associate Directorchris@southernstudies.org allie@southernstudies.org@chriskromm @allieyee_nc

INSTITUTE FOR SOUTHERN STUDIESwww.southernstudies.org

FACING SOUTH WEEKLY UPDATEfacingsouth@southernstudies.orgput “subscribe” in subject line

Key learnings and insights from civic engagement efforts in North Carolina and Georgia

Erin ByrdExecutive Director Blueprint NC

Page GleasonExecutive DirectorPro-Georgia

Collective Impact = Coordination

• Coordination: • Largest Voter Registration Program in our history – collected over 200,000

cards• Largest GOTV program (over 1 million contacts) • Largest Election Protection program in the country (over 1300 volunteers in

40 counties)

• Built infrastructure in Black, Latino and Asian Pacific Islander Communities

Early Voting TurnoutBlueprint Universe

(Statewide POC and MOM’s)Our overall GOTV universe (phone, mail, and door

combined)1,101,851 voters

423,712 voted early38.5% percent

Our MOM's (only registered MOM's)337,822 voters

211,635 voted early62.6% percent

c

North Carolina Performance and Vote Share by Race

Race Obama 2008

Hagan 2008

Perdue 2008

Obama 2012

Dalton 2012

Hagan 2014

Clinton 2016

Ross 2016

Cooper 2016

Performance by Race (Exit Polls)

White 35% 39% 36% 31% 29% 33% 33% 32% 36%

Black 95% 96% 95% 96% 85% 96% 91% 89% 87%

Latino N/A N/A N/A 68% 52% N/A 58% 47% 63%

Asian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Other N/A N/A N/A 52% 44% N/A 59% 60% 60%

Vote Share by Race (Exit Polls)

White 72% 75% 75% 70% 71% 74% 71% 71% 71%

Black 23% 19% 19% 23% 22% 21% 20% 20% 20%

Latino 3% 3% 4% 4% 3% 3% 5% 5% 5%

Asian 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

Other 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 3% 3% 3%Sources: North Carolina Exit Polls, Edison Research, 2008-2016.

North Carolina Performance and Vote Share by Age

Age Obama 2008

Hagan 2008

Perdue 2008

Obama 2012

Dalton 2012

Hagan 2014

Clinton 2016

Ross 2016

Cooper 2016

Performance by Age (Exit Polls)

18–29 74% 71% 71% 67% 56% 53% 60% 56% 63%

30–44 48% 51% 50% 51% 46% 54% 49% 48% 52%

45–64 43% 46% 45% 47% 41% 46% 44% 41% 45%

65+ 43% 45% 40% 35% 34% 42% 37% 37% 39%

Vote Share by Age (Exit Polls)

18–29 18% 17% 17% 16% 14% 12% 18% 18% 19%

30–44 27% 27% 28% 25% 24% 25% 26% 26% 26%

45–64 39% 39% 39% 39% 40% 41% 38% 38% 38%

65+ 16% 16% 16% 21% 21% 23% 18% 18% 18%

Sources: North Carolina Exit Polls, Edison Research, 2008-2016.

In the 58 counties that have been plagued by neither flooding nor locked polling place doors (Unimpaired Counties) African Americans are voting at 91% of their 2012 rate – not great,

but a definite improvement over the statewide rate of just 82%. By contrast, among the 32 counties for which federal disaster declarations are in effect, that rate drops substantially to just 79%.

http://www.insight-us.org/blog/african-american-early-voting-is-way-down-in-north-carolina-why-is-that

http://www.insight-us.org/blog/african-american-early-voting-is-way-down-in-north-carolina-why-is-that

ProGeorgia

ProGeorgia’s Collective Impact Top Lines• 58% of voters cast their votes Early. Up from 50% in 2012• 57% of the 83,306 voters we registered turned out to vote• ProGeorgia collective GOTV universe was over 550,000 new & low-

propensity voters• 70% of the voters contacted by partner organizations turned out to

vote• Election Protection: over 150 volunteers covered over 300 precincts• OSD Amendment FAILED with 60% of the vote

Georgia Statewide Voter Turnout Comparison By Year

2016 2016% 2014 2014% 2012 2012%TOTALtotal registered voters 5,418,893 5,170,388 5,428,980 total votes cast 4,132,508 76% 2,593,555 50% 3,919,355 72%

Statewide Turnout Comparison

Turnout By Demographics – year by year comparison

DEMOGRAPHICS2016 Registered 2016 Voted %

2012 Registered 2012 Voted % Change

Black Female 1048889 778851 74% 949,498 734,014 77% -3%Black Male 721448 445613 62% 660,486 434,273 66% -4%White Female 1780403 1449190 81% 1,685,309 1,280,058 76% 5%White Male 1588296 1272261 80% 1,485,658 1,119,278 75% 5%AAPI Female 60313 40784 68% 37,957 21,182 56% 12%AAPI Male 55685 36542 66% 34,523 18,517 54% 12%Latina 82840 58237 70% 50,049 29,772 59% 11%Latino 67993 43061 63% 41,790 22,057 53% 10%

Single Women 1,759,357 996703 57% 1,166,886 659,499 57% 0%Youth 1519385 904323 60% 1,011,402 475,188 47% 13%

The impact of the election on social justice efforts that aim to support LGBTQ, people of color and immigrant communities in the South

Monica HernandezExecutive DirectorSoutheast Immigrant Rights Network

Paulina Helm-HernandezCo-DirectorSoutherners on New Ground (SONG)

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