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How to think about the next
5-10 years of the Federal
presence in Hampton Roads
Craig Quigley
Rear Admiral, U.S. Navy (Ret.)
Executive Director
BACKGROUND
History of HRMFFA
Views/predictions are mine alone
Sequester/FY2016 budget/BRAC
Trend lines
Shift to the Pacific (slowly)
Smaller force (Army and Marine Corps)
Navy and Air Force dominant?
NAVY
2/3 of all regional Federal spending!
Aircraft carriers – recent change
Oceana/Fentress Now and F-35
Special Ops
Riverine
Ships Number & type
BRAC?
Long-term Less/older hardware, less people
AIR FORCE
BRAC?
LOTS of investment in Langley!
ACC staff drawdown
Encroachment being addressed
What can we attract? Cyber win!
ARMY
BRAC?
Minor uniformed effect from drawdown (94);
civil servants TBD
Various tenant commands
Tied to ultimate decision on Army end
strength
NASA LANGLEY
Work in all areas, but ½ in aeronautics
Budget surprisingly strong
Measurement Systems Lab ($94M)
Advanced composites
Unmanned Systems
COAST GUARD
Slight growth
Largest presence anywhere except DC
Turning the corner on modernization
Budget pressure (DHS)
OTHER
Fort Monroe redevelopment
Ship repair & modernization
Ship building
Unmanned Systems
Sea level rise – BRAC connection
SEQUESTER
Budget Hawks vs Defense Hawks
Politically painless (sort of)
Sequester put off for two years
OCO safety valve; temporary
By early 2016, elections in full swing
What will be the near-term effect?◦ Real property maintenance
◦ Readiness (ship repair, flight hours)
NOW WHAT?
Play to Hampton Roads attributes
Growth areas: Cyber
Unmanned Systems
Renewable energy
Play offense & defense if BRAC
Challenges Busier port
Wind energy?
Oil & gas drilling
BOTTOM LINE
Sector will shrink,
but we’ll still be standing!
QUESTIONS?