Long Rains Food Security Assessment Findings

LONG RAINS FOOD SECURITY ASSESSMENT FINDINGS

Kenya Food Security Meeting

August 15th 2014

2

Presentation outline

• Assessment Coverage

• National Outlook

• Cluster Presentations

• Conclusion and Recommendations

• Discussions

3

Long Rains 2014 Food Security Assessment Coverage

National Outlook

Outline of the National Outlook

• Agro-climatic conditionso March to May 2014 Long rains performance.

• National crop production

• Commodity prices-Maize.o Wholesale maize price trends.o Terms of trade

• Nutrition status

• Food security phase classification.

• October to December 2014 long rains forecast

Mar – Jun 2014 Rainfall performance (% of normal)

• Onset: – Normally timed – 2nd – 3rd week of

March.

• Spatial distribution:– Generally uneven with

significant parts of pastoral and small parts of southeastern marginal receiving less than 50 percent of normal.

– Others received 90 – 150 percent of normal.

• Temporal distribution:– Poor

• Cessation: varied– 3rd – 4th week of April in SEM,

NEP– 3rd week of May in NWP – Mid-June in coastal

Maize production and prospects

• Total national maize output, for 2014 long rains production:– Projected LR 2014 output (2.2 Million MT) almost 20 -

30% below the five year average (2009-2013) of 2.7 Million MT.

• The below average output results from;– Poor rainfall distribution in the high potential areas

and other marginal agricultural areas– Effects of the MLND- Nandi, Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu,

Elgeyo Marakwet– Crop out seasons to avoid MLND- Bomet

• Other crops also below average.

National maize availability: Aug – Oct 2014

Maize Balance Sheet through October 2014 90 Kg bags

MT

Stocks as at 31st July 2014 in 90kg bags 9,844,558 886,010

a) Total East Africa Imports* (Private sector cross border trade) expected between August to October 2014

1,800,000 162,200

b) Imports outside EAC between August 2014 to 31st October 2014 0

c) Estimated harvest between August 2014 to October 2014 5,500,000 495,000

Total available stocks between August and October 2014

17,144,558

1,543,010

Post –harvest storage losses estimated at 10% 1,714,456 154,301Amount used for manufacture of feeds and other industrial products (2% of stocks)

342,891 30,860

Amount used as seed (1% of household stocks) 163,000 14,670Expected total exports to East Africa Community region 0

Expected exports outside the EAC region 0

Projected national availability as at 31st October 2014 ( 90kg Bags)

14,924,211

1,343,179

CONSUMPTION @3.84 million bags/Month for 43 million people for 3 months (August to 31st October , 2014)

11,520,000 1,036,800

Balance as at 31st October 2014 (surplus/deficit) 3,404,211 306,379

Surplus 3,404,211 306,379

No. of months the available maize stocks can last Less than a month

Trend of wholesale price of maize

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Nairobi Eldoret Kisumu Mombasa

Pri

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2009-2013 Average 2014 2013

Comparative Terms of Trade

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Jul-14 July Average (2009-2013)

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Trends of GAM by Surveys 2011 to 2014

National Nutrition TrendsNutrition Situation February

2014Nutrition Situation August -

October 2014

National Food Security Trends

Population in need of immediate assistance (1)

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500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

Population requiring immediate food assistance (2)

Livelihood zones

Population affected after the 2013 short rains

Population affected after the 2014 long rains

Pastoral 796,000 1,004,300

Marginal agriculture

490,600 502,100

Total 1,286,600 1,506, 400

Distribution of population affected by County

Affected population in February 2014 and August 2014

Factors affecting food security

• Below average total rainfall performance – Poor temporal and uneven spatial long rains distribution

• High food prices

• Tribal and clan conflicts and insecurity

• Poor infrastructure-roads and communication

• Livestock and crop diseases

• Low adoption of suitable crop and livestock production technologies.

• Human wildlife conflict

Conflicts, disease hotspots and livestock Migration patterns

Oct – Dec Short Rains Forecast

• ECMWF- Hotter than normal (>+1.0C) dry season (Aug – Oct) and increased likelihood for wetter-than-normal rainfall performance across parts of eastern and northern Kenya during the short rains (Oct – Dec) season, near normal for the rest of the country.

Cluster Presentations

Pastoral Northwest Cluster

Turkana, Samburu and Marsabit Counties

Introduction

Figure : Pastoral Northwest Cluster Livelihood Zones

69%

24%

7%

Population Proportion by Livelihood Zones

Pastoral

Agro-Pastoral

Others

Food security trend

February 2014 August 2014

• Area planted-maize 49%,cow peas 304%(270 to 1092 Ha) above LTA-sorghum 20% below LTA.

• Irrigated area increased by 20%.

• Production-Maize 11% of LTA, Cow peas 107%,sorghum 293% (II28 TO 2975 bags) above.

• Forage condition: Poor (last 1-2months).

• Body condition: fair to poor camel – good.

• Milk availability-decrease by 80% to 1/4 to 1 lt per day.

Current Food Security Situation

Current Food Security Situation• Open water sources recharge -

55 to 60 % of capacity.

• Distance to water sources -normal 1-2 kms. pockets of Samburu and Marsabit at 12kms.

• Water consumption-normal 10-15l ,Parts of Marsabit and Turkana - 5-10l compared to 10 l.

• Dropout rates - between 10-20%.

• FCS -Marsabit and Samburu -100% HH – poor, Turkana - 42% and 34% in poor and borderline


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Turkana Marsabit Samburu

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July, 2014 July Average (2009-2013)

Nutrition Situation


Pastoral Northeast Cluster

(Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, Isiolo, Tana River Counties)

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Introduction

52%

19%

8%

21%

Livelihood Proportions

PastoralAgro pastoralMixed farmingOthers

Food security trend


Current Food Security Situation• Area planted for Maize and Cowpeas

declined to 85% and 79% of the LTA respectively while Green grams area increased to 110%.

• Production for Maize, Cowpeas and Green grams declined to 79%, 78% and 96% of the LTA respectively.

• Return Trekking distances range between 15 and 30 Km – above normal of 10-20 Km.

• Body condition: fair across all the livelihood zones except for cattle in some pockets of the cluster which were poor.

• Milk availability per HH: between 1.5 and 3 litres compared to normal 4 to 7 litres).


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Mandera Wajir Garissa Isiolo Tana River

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Current Food Security Situation• Recharge to open water sources was

55-60%.

• Distances to water sources within the normal 1-5kms and above 10kms for pockets in Tana River under water trucking.

• General increase in enrollment across the cluster with Garissa recording the highest [28%].

• Dropout rate was minimal across the cluster except Garissa with 23% drop out.

• Transition: ECD – primary >85%

• FIC below national target of 80%

• Vitamin A supplementation below national target of 80% for children aged 12-59 months (once & twice).

Nutrition Situation


Agro-pastoral Cluster(Kajiado, Narok, Nyeri(Kieni) West Pokot,

Baringo, and Laikipia

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Introduction

Food security trend

February

2014August 2014

• Area planted: maize 94%, beans-92% and Irish potatoes 98% of LTA.

• Rain fed Production: • Maize - 41%, Beans - 36% and

Irish Potatoes -67% of LTA across the cluster.

• Stocks -Households 28%, Traders 50%, Millers 39% of LTA to last 1.5 months.

• Livestock Productivity-Forage: Fair to poor; Body condition: Fair to poor(cattle and sheep) and good for goats.

• Markets: Market operations normal, except in Baringo,& Laikipia (FMD Quarantine).



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Baringo West Pokot Laikipia Kajiado Nyeri Narok

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Current Food Security Situation• CDR and U5DR below the alert

thresholds.

• Immunization coverage is below national target of 80% except Nyeri (Kieni) (87%).

• Vitamin A -below national targets of 80%.

• Nutrition - stable except East Pokot in Baringo ( GAM: 21%) and Northern part of West Pokot (11.8%).

• FCS - borderline (34%), poor(19%) and acceptable(47%).

• Coping strategy index: 38 in May 2014 compared to 27 in May 2013 (Baringo, W.Pokot ,Kieni) and 9 in Kajiado and Narok compared to 4.

Children at Risk of Malnutrition (MUAC<135mm)

Trends July 2014 vs LTA

• Education: Increased enrolment and retention.


• Water consumption: 10-20 litres per person per day except the Mixed Farming Livelihood zone of Kieni and Pastoral Livelihood zone of Baringo (7-10 litres per person per day).

Introduction

Food security trend


Trends of maize prices in the cluster


• Maize production- 67% of LTA.

• Other crops-32% of LTA.

• Stocks-Households 23%,traders 70% ,millers 48% of LTA.

• Forage condition: fair to poor, body condition: good to fair .

• Milk production is 0.5 - 1 litre per household.

• Market operations normal; Except in parts of Meru and Makueni.


• Water consumption is 12-20 lpppd compared to 15-30 normally.

• Latrine coverage is 67-92%.

• FIC below national target of 80% except Mbeere (82%).

• % of U-5 at risk of malnutrition (MUAC <135mm) trends ; stable and below the LTA apart from Tharaka and Meru North.

• Transition rate from Primary-secondary at 70-86%

Children at Risk of Malnutrition (MUAC<135mm

July 2014 vs LTA Trends

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Coast Marginal Agricultural Cluster(Lamu, Kilifi, Kwale, Taita Taveta)

04/13/2023

Introduction

Mixed Farming 60%

Marginal Mixed

Farming 20%

Livestock 15%

Others 5%

Food Security trend

04/13/2023 51

February

2014August 2014


• Crop production:• Maize: 85% above LTA.• Cowpeas and green

grams was 36,40% respectively above LTA.

• Livestock productivity: Stable.

• Water consumption: 15- 30 lt/person/day: normal.

• Markets: Normal across the cluster except in some parts of Lamu.

04/13/2023 52

Trends of maize prices in the cluster

• Mortality: Below emergency threshold.

• Coping Strategy Index: Stable at 18, from 16 in May 2013.

• FCS ; 20% poor, 26% border line an 54% acceptable

• Education: Enrolment stable, drop out minimal.

• Nutrition status: Stable & below LTA.


Children at Risk of Malnutrition (MUAC<135mm

July 2014 vs LTA Trends

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Conclusions and Recommendations

Conclusions• The 2014 long rains were below normal in most parts of

the country except parts of the coastal marginal areas.

• Below average harvest of 20-30 % is expected in the from the long rains crop harvest.

• Rangeland conditions in the pastoral areas are generally fair but deteriorating .

• Livestock Diseases especially FMD and LSD reported in few counties however livestock body condition reported to be fair.

• Endemic diseases currently managed by both national and county governments and other actors.

Conclusions• Water availability is fair following off season rains but

condition likely to worsen if October rains underperform

• Expected increase in maize prices due to dwindled stocks and expected below average long rains harvest

• Continued nutrition deterioration in the pastoral areas to critical levels generally and to emergency levels in some counties.

• Generally the schools in the pastoral areas recording improvements except in parts of Baringo and Turkana .

• Food security in the pastoral areas likely to continue deteriorating through October, with improvements expected after onset of the short rains.

Food Security Projection

Next steps……

• Support programmes; Livestock resilience projects, disease surveillance, small scale irrigation, livestock feed conservation in the ASALs to be strengthened.

• Soil and Water conservation activities need to be intensified with emphasis on water harnessing/harvesting programmes in the short rains season.

• Strengthen nutrition interventions in the areas with high malnutrition outcomes.

• Activation of contingency plans in the counties.

• Early preparedness for the October – December short rains likely to be normal to above normal, with potential for El Nino occurrence.

Proposed InterventionsSECTOR PROPOSED INTERVENTIONS COST

Ksh.COST IN U.S.

DOLLAR

AGRICULTURE Upscaling of input subsidy programmes and post harvest technologies to improve access to inputs and reduce post harvest losses, management of Maize Lethal Necrosis disease, sensitization of farmers on management and promotion of drought tolerant crop varieties, water harvesting for crop production, enhancement of agricultural mechanization, upscaling of irrigation initiatives.

1,305M 15M

WATER Fuel subsidy, purchases of fast moving spares, repair of storage facilities, water trucking to institutions and communities, hygiene and sanitation promotion, building capacity for water management commitees, Survey, drilling and equipping of boreholes, excavations and de-silting of pans and dams, pipelines extension provision of water storage structures

1,131M 13M

LIVESTOCK Destocking of cattle and supplementary feeding, Livestock disease surveillance/vaccination, breeding improvement, fodder production, conservation, and rehabilitation of rangeland, grazing management, Livestock marketing infrastructure-slaughter houses, sale yards, and capacity on livelihood diversifications.

1,479M 17M

Proposed InterventionsSECTOR PROPOSED INTERVENTIONS COST

Ksh.COST IN U.S.

DOLLAREDUCATION Up-scaling of School Meal Programme [SMP], to include

detached ECD centers, Dugsi and Madrasahs, Provision of Water tanks Peace Education campaigns, Construction of kitchens, expand support of field schools, construction of latrines, advocacy on girl child education, construction of ECD centers.

365M 4.2M

HEALTH AND NUTRITION

Scale up of High Impact Nutrition Interventions (HINI) including integrated management of acute malnutrition, procurement of equipment, active case finding, nutrition surveillance, nutrition surveys/assessments, integrated health and nutrition outreaches, medical screening, procurement of water treatment tablets,, promotion of proper hygiene and sanitation practices, deworming

1,496M 17.2M

FOOD ASSISTANCE Building resilience to future shocks through FFA and CFA. Food commodities and cash for 1.5 million food insecure people in need of assistance for the next six months (September - February 2015). An estimated 66,900 MT of food or cash equivalent (CFA) will be required.

6,612M 76M

Total 12,388M 142M

Thank You

04/13/2023 63

Government & Nonprofit

Long Rains Food Security Assessment Findings