Solar Energy markets in Denmark, Peter Ahm 24092015

Solar Energy in Denmark

Peter Ahm, DirectorPA Energy Ltd.

[email protected]

PV in Denmark, 24.09.15 2

Content

• PV & Solar Thermals Globally (brief)• PV & Solar Thermals in Denmark– History– Recent Market Trends & Support Instruments– EU regulations– National PV Strategy– Future Trends

• Concluding Remarks


PV Globally


Development of the globale PV market


PV Global Status and Trends

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Solar_cell.png



PV’s Share in Power Production


Trends (1/2)


Trends (2/2)


Recommendations


Price Trends – IEA Forecast


Recent Key Numbers for Utility Scale PV

• EU utility scale PV: > 5 MW @ $c 8-11/kWh (Germany)• RSA, Juwi: 558 kW (track.) @ $c 7,46/kWh• Dubai, ACWA Power: 200 MW @ $c 5,98/kWh• USA, First Solar: 100 MW (TF) @ $c 3,84/kWh (PTC!)• WE ARE ALREADY REACHING THE IEA 2050 TARGETS

• Why this trend? Not only falling cost of PV• Optimized EPC• Reduced soft cost• Cheaper financing


Future of PV• More than 50 countries globally has established

targets for PV - more than 350 GW by 2020.• Current top 6 countries (installed capacity)

Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, France and China had 76 % of installed capacity by 2012, but only 61 % of global target by 2020: new markets!

• Reaching 350 GW by 2020 will require ~ 40 GW/Y from 2013 (!) up to 2020; current production capacity is ~ 60 GW/Y so no problem.


Forecasting Volume and Price

Volume (c-Si) Price (USD2011):• 2013 100 GW 2013 0,90/W• 2022 300 GW 2022 0,55/W • 2030 1 TW 2030 0,35/W• 2050 10 TW 2050 0,28-0,32/W Source: PA Energy Ltd.


PV Driving Storage in the Grid


Global Grid Storage Market Overview


Solar Thermals Globally


Marketdevelopment


Contribution of Solar Thermals


Renewable Energy Growth RatesSolar Thermals Decreasing Growth


Main markets


Main TechnologiesWorld

Europe


Market Development in EU + Ch


PV History of Denmark (1/3)• Very first Danish

professional projects at Jydsk Telefon

1979

19901987


• Greenland 1980-95• The telecommunication backbone of 2,500 km on the west coast is PV powered • Most navigational aids PV powered• > 250 kW installed

PV History of Denmark (2/3)

http://de.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Datei:Gr%C3%B8nland+grid.png&filetimestamp=20071214025419


•UVE Programme in 1989• Integration of all public

solar energy activities under the Energy Authority• Solar Energy Committee for

all solar technologies• Many PV projects initiated;

Denmark in IEA PVPS 1993• Net-metering (pilot) 1989• National PV Strategy started

in 2001• New government in 2001 – stop!

PV History of Denmark (3/3)


A series of PV projects on residential houses: Sol-by (30 PV houses on same grid radial); Sol-300 (focus on end-user behaviour); Sol-1000 (focus on deployment aspects)

Initial National Projects – a Restart 2002


PV-OPT project – in 2007-8

• Purpose: optimized design under DK conditions• Base: about 3 MW installed – data available• Results:– Design tools OK if operated decently/professionally– Insolation data more uncertain – various sources –

best measured data from DMI (16 stations)– Little transparent operational data available inter-

nationally and nationally– Need to collect DK data continuosly


Stor skala PV anlæg i Danmarki 2011 - 12


Recent National Projects• Skive Municipality– Target 1 MW (revised target: 1,5 MW)

• PVIB (EU EcoGrid)– Target 5 MW on Bornholm


PV Market in Denmark

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

20102011

02,0004,0006,0008,000

10,00012,00014,00016,00018,000

kW

kW

20012002

20032004

20052006

20072008

20092010

20110.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

Growth rate[%]

Growth rate[%]


Technical Potential Wind

Electricity: 45 wind farms each 35 km2 (200 MW)Gross energy: 280 wind farms each 35 km2


Technical Potential Biomass

• With agriculture for food: about 40 % of energy• Only energy crops: about 65 % of energy


Technical potential PV

Electricity: 323 km2 (@ 360 TJ per km2)Gross Energy: 2260 km2

¼ of built up area =½ of electricity demand


PV in Denmark – Recent Market Trends (1/6)

• In 2012 was installed about 70.000 plants equalling 407 MW. “ the Boom year”!

• In 2013 was installed about 29.000 plants equalling 155 MW.

• I 2014 was installed 1.860 plants equalling 42 MW.


Energinet.dk (TSO) registers all grid-connected PV plants


PV in Denmark (2/6)week 32 2015


PV in Denmark 3/6)

Sum of ´0 - 1

Sum of ´1 - 2

Sum of ´2 - 3

Sum of ´3 - 4

Sum of ´4 - 5

Sum of ´5 -6

Sum of ´6 -10

Sum of ´10 -20

Sum of ´20 -100

Sum of >100

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

135 1074

5090

90816997

46854

544 215 201 30

Number of PV system per kW grouping installed in 2012


PV in Denmark (4/6)

Sum of ´0 - 1

Sum of ´1 - 2

Sum of ´2 - 3

Sum of ´3 - 4

Sum of ´4 - 5

Sum of ´5 -6

Sum of ´6 -10

Sum of ´10 -20

Sum of ´20 -100

Sum of >100

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

274828

21743262 2924

17228

586 5601114

420

Number of PV systems per kW grouping installed in 2013


PV in Denmark (5/6)

Sum of ´0

- 0,99

Sum of ´1

- 1,99

Sum of ´2

- 2,99

Sum of ´3

- 3,99

Sum of ´4

- 4,99

Sum of ´5

-5,99

Sum of ´6

-6,99

Sum of ´7

-7,99

Sum of ´8

-8,99

Sum of ´9

-9,99

Sum of ´1

0 -19,99

Sum of ´2

0 -29,99

Sum of ´3

0 -49,99

Sum of ´5

0 -99,99

Sum of ´1

00 -199,99

Sum of ´2

00 -499,99

Sum of ´5

00 -999

Sum of ´1

000 -1'999

Sum of >

20000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

53

128

202

359

139

93

310

34 3620

164

83102

5625

52

2 1 0

Number of PV systems per kW grouping installed in 2014


PV in Denmark (6/6)• Politically influenced market – rather unstable

– DK/EC conflict re. PSO.• Nett-metering scheme definitions set the

market. • Trend towards a new market (for private and

commercial) targeting self consumption.• Threats: taxation, price for grid-access.• Potentials: “grid defection” (w. storage),

reduced KVA max. payment.


Support Instruments in Denmark (1/3)

• Up to end of 2012 net-metering time window of 1 year. Value of a kWh: about €c 0,30.

• Transitory regulations in terms of “additional support” ranging €c 9 – 17 depending on time of contracting and plant size/application; basic support €c 8/kWh for 10 Y, next 10 Y €c 5,3 – then expected Nordpool market price

• Mid 2013 new law (no.: 900) – finally!


Support Instruments in Denmark (2/3)• Law 900 submitted to the EC for approval (state

support regulations) – refused and questions to the PSO system.

• Additional support instruments in freeze during DK-EC negotiations up to spring 2015.

• Interim solution found up to end of 2016; before DK to elaborate and get approval for a new PSO scheme.

• PV ”lots” (3 x 20 MW + 1 x 20 MW) offered for additional support ranging €c 10 to 15 kWh depending on ”lot” and time.


Support Instruments in Denmark (3/3)

• 01.07.14 new EC regulations on competition and state support – ”common sense” interpretation.

• Three new requirements to the Danish PSO:– PV plants < 500 kW: OK.– PV plants 05 – 1 MW: market price + ”adder”; balancing

obligatory; no support when prices negative.– PV plants > 1 MW: tendering – transparent!

• New procedures for applications: first permission!• New evaluation criteria: incentivise!


Business Models for PV

• Direct capital grants have in general not been successful and do not promote quality and performance.

• Feed-in-tariff (FIT) has been good at kick-starting markets but only for a limited time and does require often adjustments to reflect cost.

• Net-metering as FIT, but raise the question of payment fro grid access.

• P.t. the model in Europe is ”own consumption”


Danish National PV Strategy (1/2)• Aims at help co-ordination of the various

programmes in support research, development and demonstration (R,D&D) and at assisting applicants in focussing their applications for support. Deployment addressed as a ”catalogue of ideas” – no conflict with the political process.

• First Strategy in 2005 compiled by the Energy Agency and the power sector and involving a broad set of key stakholders in a dialogue.

• Strategies exist on various energy technologies.


Danish National PV Strategy (2/2)• Strategy last revised in 2009 – now in collaboration

with the Danish PV Association (DSF).• The Energy Agency decided mid 2015 there was a

need to revise the PV Strategy (this time without direct collaboration with the power sector) but in collaboration with DSF and again a broad set of stakeholders. Joint format for new strategies.

• The Strategy is expected completed by end of 2015• A similar strategy for solar thermals – last revised in

2007


Small scale solar thermals too expensiveLarge Scale Growing – District Heating


Solar Thermals for District Heating Set to Grow


Solar Thermals Best Use of Area


Solar Thermals in Denmark


The Sun May Rise Again for Solar Energy in Denmark

• Power from PV cheaper than from off-shore wind• New small and large PV with no additional support

(0,60 DKK/kWh 10 Y, 0,40 kr DKK/kWh next 10 Y) • A national PV strategy is under preparation• MoE launches call for large scale PV (< 2,4 MW)• Large scale solar thermals for district heating on

the rise, small scale suffers and for residential housing may be replaced by PV powered water heaters.


Thanks for your attention!

Peter AhmPA Energy Ltd.Snovdrupvej 16, DK-8340 Malling DenmarkTel. +45 86 93 33 33Email: [email protected]

Government & Nonprofit

Solar Energy markets in Denmark, Peter Ahm 24092015