South Africans unhappy with the economy, see slow progress since 1994

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South Africans unhappy with the

economy, see slow progress since

1994

Findings from Afrobarometer Round 6 surveys in South Africa

20 April 2016, Durban, South Africa


At a glance

• The economy: South Africans say the economy is headed in the

wrong direction and the government is failing to manage it.

• Socioeconomic changes since 1994: A majority of South Africans

believe there has been no change or there has been a

deterioration on a range of indicators.

• Discrimination: A significant proportion of minority race groups

believe the government discriminates against them.


What is Afrobarometer?

• A pan-African, non-partisan survey research project that measures

citizen attitudes on democracy and governance, the economy,

civil society, and other topics.

• Started in 12 countries in 1999, expanded to 35 African countries in

Round 5 (2011-2013). 36 countries covered in Round 6 (2014-2015)

• Goal: To give the public a voice in policymaking by providing

high-quality public opinion data to policymakers, policy

advocates, civil society organizations, academics, news media,

donors and investors, and ordinary Africans.

• National Partners in each country conduct the survey. In South

Africa, Afrobarometer Round 6 survey was conducted by the

Institute for Justice and Reconciliation and Plus 94 Research.


Where Afrobarometer works


Methodology

• Nationally representative sample of adult citizens

All respondents are randomly selected.

Sample is distributed across [regions/states/provinces] and urban/rural

areas in proportion to their share in the national population.

Every adult citizen has an equal chance of being selected.

• Face-to-face interviews In the language of the respondent’s

choice.

• Standard questionnaire allows comparisons across countries and

over time.

• Sample size in South Africa of 2,400 adult citizens yields a margin

of error of +/-2% at a 95% confidence level.

• Fieldwork for Round 6 in South Africa was conducted between

August and September 2015

Enumerator map


Survey demographics

7

Unweighted Weighted

Gender

Male 50% 50%

Female 50% 50%

Location

Urban 68% 66%

Rural 32% 34%

Province

Eastern Cape 13% 12%

Free State 5% 5%

Gauteng 24% 25%

KwaZulu-Natal 18% 20%

Limpopo 9% 10%

Mpumalanga 7% 8%

North West 6% 7%

Northern Cape 8% 2%

Western Cape 11% 12%

Education

No formal education 3% 3%

Primary 12% 13%

Secondary 59% 59%

Post-secondary 26% 25%


Survey demographics

8

Unweighted Weighted

Race

Black African 70% 75%

White 11% 9%

Coloured 14% 12%

Indian 6% 3%

Religion

Christian 82% 83%

Muslim 3% 2%

Other 15% 15%


Results


Perceptions of the economy


Key findings

A majority (54%) of South Africans rate their country’s economic

situation as “fairly bad” or “very bad,” an increase from 47% in

2011.

Almost two-thirds (64%) of citizens say the country is headed in the

wrong direction, an increase of 18 percentage points from 2011.

This is the third-highest level of disapproval among 11 countries in

southern Africa.

Lived poverty has decreased: The proportion of citizens deprived of five basic essentials (food, clean water, medical care, cooking

fuel and cash income) dropped by half (from 16% to 8%) between

2011 and 2015.

Indian and white South Africans experience less deprivation than

their black and Coloured compatriots.

Negative ratings of national and personal economic conditions |

South Africa | 2000-2015

(% reporting “fairly bad” or “very bad”)

68%

56%

28%

57%

47%

54%

46% 32% 43% 41%36%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2000 2002 2006 2008 2011 2015

Country´s economic condition Personal living conditions

Negative rating of economic conditions | South Africa | 2000-2015

(% reporting “fairly bad” or “very bad”)

50%

23%

26% 35%

29%29%

60%

37%

18%

42%

33%39%

44% 31%

9%

36%

21%

29%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2000 2002 2006 2008 2011 2015

Own living conditions vs. other South Africans

Country's economic conditions compared to 12 months ago

Country's economic conditions in 12 months' time

Direction of the country| South Africa | 2011-2015

Respondents were asked: Some people might think the country is going in the wrong direction. Others may

feel it is going in the right direction. So let me ask you about the overall direction of the county: Would you

say that the country is going in the wrong direction or in the right direction?

46% 46%

8%

64%

31%

5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Going in the wrong direction Going in the right direction Don`t know

2011 2015

Direction of the country | Southern Africa | 2014/15

Respondents were asked: Some people might think the country is going in the wrong direction. Others may

feel it is going in the right direction. So let me ask you about the overall direction of the county: Would you

say that the country is going in the wrong direction or in the right direction?

52%

24%

24%

38%

46%

51%

52%

61%

63%

64%

75%

78%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

Average

Namibia

Mozambique

Botswana

Swaziland

Mauritius

Lesotho

Zambia

Zimbabwe

South Africa

Madagascar

Malawi

Deprivation from basic necessities | South Africa | 2002-2015

37%40% 42%

30%28%

36%

40%

31%

33%

41% 43%39%

29%

27%

34%

44%

38%

26%

48%50%

53%56%

53%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

2002 2006 2008 2011 2015Food Water Medical care Cooking fuel Cash income

Respondents were asked: Over the past year, how often, if ever, have you or anyone in your family gone

without: Enough food to eat? Enough clean water for home use? Medicines or medical treatment? Enough

fuel to cook your food? A cash income?

(% who say “just once or twice,” “several times,” “many times,” or “always”)

Basic necessities: never going without vs. going without all five|

South Africa | 2002-2015

Respondents were asked: Over the past year, how often, if ever, have you or anyone in your family gone

without: Enough food to eat? Enough clean water for home use? Medicines or medical treatment? Enough

fuel to cook your food? A cash income?

(% who say “never”, “just once or twice,” “several times,” “many times,” or “always”)

40%38%

33%31%

37%

12%

16% 16% 16%

8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2002 2006 2008 2011 2015

Never went without Went without all five necessities at least once

Basic necessities: Never going without | by social indicators |

South Africa |2015

37%

35%39%

25%43%

40%36%35%

54%34%

21%13%

13%21%

24%30%

36%36%

43%45%

55%

28%47%

79%81%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

Average

FemaleMale

RuralUrban

51+ years31-50 years18-30 years

Post-secondary…Secondary education

Primary educationNo formal education

North WestNorthern Cape

Eastern CapeKwaZulu-Natal

Free StateMpumalanga

LimpopoGauteng

Western Cape

Black/AfricanColoured

WhiteIndian

Figure shows % of respondents who say they “never” went

without any of these five basic necessities)

Basic necessities: Never going without | by infrastructure | South Africa |2015

37%

35%

41%

12%

38%

15%

40%

21%

44%

10%

38%

34%

47%

23%

44%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Average

No post office

Post office

No electric grid

Electric grid

No piped-water system

Piped-water system

No sewage system

Sewage system

No cell-phone service

Cell-phone service

No banking facilities

Banking facilities

No tarred/paved road

Tarred/paved road

(Figure shows % of respondents who say they “never” went

without any of these five basic necessities)

Government Performance in economic management |

South Africa| 2002-2015

56%

29%

47%

53%

66%

38%

65%

50%

45%

33%

6% 7%

2% 2% 1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2002 2006 2008 2012 2015

Fairly/very badly Fairly/very well Don`t know

Respondents were asked: How well or badly would you say the current government is handling the following

matters, or haven’t you heard enough to say: Managing the economy?


Evaluations of Post-1994 South Africa


Key findings

South Africans’ ratings of current and past political systems remain

largely unchanged since 2011, but optimism about the political

system in 10 years’ time has declined significantly (from an average

of 8.2 points out of 10 in 2011 to 6.8). As of 2015, white and Indian

citizens give apartheid a higher rating than both the current political

system and their expectations for the future.

On average, only 37% of citizens believe that life has improved since

1994 on a range of socioeconomic indicators, while 24% believe that

conditions have remained the same and 38% that they have

deteriorated. Among racial groups, Indian citizens are the most

critical of post-1994 developments.

Despite their dissatisfaction with the rate of change, South Africans

remain committed to their national identity and to nation-building

efforts. More than eight in 10 “agree” or “strongly agree” that

creating a united country is desirable (87%) and possible (83%).

Average ratings of political systems | South Africa | 2000-2015

Respondents were asked: We are now going to discuss how you rate different forms of government. I would

like you to give marks out of 10. The best form of governing a country gets 10 out of 10, and the worst form of

governing a country gets no marks at all. What grade would you give to:

1. The way the country was governed under apartheid?

2. Our current system of government with regular elections where everyone can vote and there are at least

two political parties?

3. The political system of this country as you expect it to be in 10 years’ time?

3.43.9

2.8 2.93.5 3.3 3.4

6.1

5.9

7.16.5

6.3

6.0 6.15.9

6.87.4 7.6

5.9

8.2

6.8

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2011 2015

Apartheid system Current system of govt Future system (in 10 yrs)

Average ratings of political systems | by race | South Africa | 2015

2.9

4.3

5.85.4

6.35.8

5.14.7

7.2

6.4

5.3

4.5

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Black/African Coloured White Indian

Apartheid system Current system of govt Future system (in 10 yrs)

Changes in socioeconomic conditions since 1994 | South Africa | 2015

Respondents were asked: How would you say the following has changed since the transition in 1994:

1) Your personal safety and that of your family? 2) Economic circumstances for you and your family?

3) Employment opportunities for you and your family? 4) Relations between members of different race

groups? 5) The gap between the rich and poor?

37%

17%

30%

41%

42%

52%

24%

28%

19%

23%

23%

26%

38%

52%

51%

36%

34%

20%

1%

3%

0%

1%

1%

3%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Average

Inequality

Employment

Econ. circumstances

Safety

Race relations

Better/Much better Same Worse/Much worse Don't know

Improvement in socioeconomic conditions since 1994 | by social

indicators| South Africa | 2015

(Figure shows average % of “better” or “much better” responses across the questions regarding personal

safety, economic circumstances, employment opportunities, race relations, and inequality between rich and

poor)

37%

37%35%

37%36%

40%35%

33%

33%33%

35%42%

39%33%

29%16%

36%30%

38%26%

41%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%

Average

UrbanRural

MaleFemale

18-29 years30-49 years

50 and older

No formal educationPrimary

SecondaryPost-secondary


WhiteIndian

No affiliationOther party

EFF supporterDA supporter

ANC supporter

Attachment to national identity | by race | South Africa | 2015

Respondents were asked: Here are some things people say about the way they feel about South Africa. There

are no right or wrong answers. We are simply interested in your opinions. Please tell me whether you disagree or

agree with these statements.

1. Being South African is a very important part of how you see yourself.

2. You would want your children to think of themselves as South African.

3. People should realise we are South Africans first, and stop thinking of themselves in terms of the group they

belong to.

(% “agree” or “strongly agree”)

91%87% 88%

99%92% 90% 87%99%

88%82% 82%

96%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Black/African White Coloured Indian

Being South African is important part of identity

Want children to think of themselves as South African

South Africans should prioritise national identity

National unity | by race | South Africa | 2015

Respondents were asked: Please tell me whether you disagree or agree with these statements.

1. It is desirable to create one united South African nation out of all the different groups who live in this

country.

2. It is possible to create such a united South African nation.

(% “agree” or “strongly agree”)

88%83% 82%

98%

84%

73%80%

83%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


Creating a united SA is desirable Creating a united SA is possible


Discrimination by institutions and

society


Key findings

Although consistently low since 2006, the proportion of South Africans

who believe that the government “always” or “often” discriminates

against members of their ethnic community increased by 15

percentage points, on average, among citizens of minority race

groups between 2011 and 2015.

A majority of citizens believe that employers (56%) and the courts

(54%) “always” or “often” treat people differently based on their

race, while 36% say the same about landlords.

Perceptions of frequent racial discrimination by employers, the courts,

and landlords are far higher among Indian respondents (73% on

average) than among other race groups. They are also above

average among urban residents, citizens with high levels of

education, and residents of North West, Gauteng, and Western Cape

provinces.

Government discrimination | South Africa | 2015

Respondents were asked: How often, if ever, are [members of respondent’s ethnic group] treated unfairly by the government?

43%

26%

50% 52%

26%

28%

21%25%

18%

24%

16%

18%5%

14%

9%

2%8% 9% 2% 2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2006 2008 2011 2015

Never Sometimes Always/Often Not applicable Don't know

Government discrimination|by race|South Africa |2006-2015

16%

22%

14%12%

27%

17%

31%32%34%

25%

40%

7%

38%

33%

49%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2006 2008 2011 2015


Perceptions of racial discrimination | South Africa | 2015

Respondents were asked: In your opinion, how often in this country are people treated unequally because of their race by: Their current or prospective employers? The courts? Potential landlords?

56% 54%

36%

39% 42%

51%

5% 4%13%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Employers Courts Landlords

Always/Often Never/Rarely Don't know

Racial discrimination by employers | by social indicators| South Africa |

2015

56%

59%50%

57%55%

55%57%

54%

54%49%

57%59%

57%51%51%

73%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Average

UrbanRural

MaleFemale


50 and older




WhiteIndian

Respondents were asked: In your opinion, how often in this country are people treated unequally because of

their race by their current or prospective employers? (% “often” or “always”)

Racial discrimination in the courts | by social indicators| South Africa |

2015

54%

59%45%

55%54%

55%55%

52%

39%51%

53%60%

51%59%

62%83%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Average

UrbanRural

MaleFemale


50 and older




WhiteIndian

Respondents were asked: In your opinion, how often in this country are people treated unequally because of their race by the courts? (% “often” or “always”)

Racial discrimination by potential landlords | by social indicators| South

Africa | 2015

Respondents were asked: In your opinion, how often in this country are people treated unequally because of their race by potential landlords? (% “often” or “always”)

36%

40%29%

37%35%

36%36%

35%

31%30%

36%40%

34%32%

43%63%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Average

UrbanRural

MaleFemale


50 and older




WhiteIndian

Province Employers Courts Landlords Average

North West 70% 54% 54% 59%

Gauteng 64% 69% 35% 56%

Western Cape 51% 61% 52% 55%

KwaZulu-Natal 57% 59% 40% 52%

Free State 65% 54% 32% 50%

Eastern Cape 48% 51% 41% 47%

Northern Cape 43% 48% 35% 42%

Limpopo 37% 37% 18% 31%

Mpumalanga 56% 16% 4% 25%

(% “often” or “always”)

Racial discrimination by employers, courts and landlords | by province |

South Africa | 2015


Conclusion


South Africans are increasingly pessimistic about the national economy, saying it is headed in the wrong direction and the government has done a poor job of managing it.

Optimism about the future has decreased significantly with white and Indian citizens giving apartheid a higher rating than both the current political system and their expectations for the future.

Perceptions of frequent government discrimination have increased among minority race groups and a majority of South Africans believe that employers and courts “always” or “often” treat people differently based on race, while more than one-third say the same about landlord


For more information on these

topics, please consult:

• Dispatch No. 82: Post-1994 South Africa better

than apartheid, but few gains in

socioeconomic conditions

• Dispatch No. 83: Despite decline in lived

poverty, South Africans increasingly pessimistic

about the economy

• Dispatch No. 84: South Africans generally

tolerant but report racial discrimination by

employers and courts


Thank you

Siyabonga

Rea leboha

Dankie

Inkomu

Gangans

Government & Nonprofit

South Africans unhappy with the economy, see slow progress since 1994