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4/8/2016 The Day After: Preparing to Respond to National Cyber Crises http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/events/pastevents/thedayafterpreparingtorespondtonationalcybercrises 1/7 The Day After: Preparing to Respond to National Cyber Crises By J.L. Billingsley Given that all entities are susceptible to being hacked, how will (not would) a federal government like that of the United States respond to the potential compromise of a critical asset like the Global Positioning System (GPS)? For the fourth year in a row, the Atlantic Council has been at the forefront of proactively tackling such cyberrelated national security policy challenges by hosting the Cyber 9/12 Student Challenge . The Military Cyber Professionals Association (MCPA) and its members were honored to recently conclude its second year of direct support to the event. Having served as a reviewer, presenter, and judge at the event, here are some reasons why I look forward to the event’s continued growth. Influencing policy takes time. This event scenario charges each team of four to present policy response options to the National Security Council (NSC). Any national level crisis response requires a reallocation of available resources (money, personnel, intelligence assets, etc.), if not lengthy requests for more resources before Congress. Given the hierarchical nature of policy making and resource allocation within the US government, each echelon involved exacts a delay in responsiveness by applying their own decisionmaking processes. The result is what some in military circles refer to as an elongated “flash to bang time” that increases the risk of failing to achieve the desired response objectives. Simulations, tabletop exercises (TTX), and/or Rehearsal of Concept (ROC) Drills are well known and effective ways to help identify the actions, structures, or capabilities needed to be better poised to respond to the realities of operating in an increasingly dangerous cyberspace environment. While the building of entities like US Cyber Command (USCC) and the National Cybersecurity Center of Excellence (NCCoE) are good examples of national efforts to optimize responses to anticipated challenges, one must consider the dimension of time. While USCC was officially established about seven years ago (not counting a probably lengthy staffing process preceding the final decision and public announcement), its subordinate Cyber Mission Force (CMF) is still years away from being fully built out and ready to effectively serve in its intended role. Anybody who has ever built a team of any type, be it in little league baseball or in Silicon Valley startups, understands that assembling the pieces (personnel, real,

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4/8/2016 The Day After: Preparing to Respond to National Cyber Crises

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The Day After: Preparing to Respond to National CyberCrises

By J.L. Billingsley

Given that all entities are susceptible to being hacked, how will (not would) a federal government like thatof the United States respond to the potential compromise of a critical asset like the Global PositioningSystem (GPS)? For the fourth year in a row, the Atlantic Council has been at the forefront of proactivelytackling such cyber­related national security policy challenges by hosting the Cyber 9/12 StudentChallenge. The Military Cyber Professionals Association (MCPA) and its members were honored torecently conclude its second year of direct support to the event. Having served as a reviewer, presenter,and judge at the event, here are some reasons why I look forward to the event’s continued growth. 

Influencing policy takes time. 

This event scenario charges each team of four to present policy response options to the National SecurityCouncil (NSC). Any national level crisis response requires a reallocation of available resources (money,personnel, intelligence assets, etc.), if not lengthy requests for more resources before Congress. Given thehierarchical nature of policy making and resource allocation within the US government, each echeloninvolved exacts a delay in responsiveness by applying their own decision­making processes. The result iswhat some in military circles refer to as an elongated “flash to bang time” that increases the risk of failingto achieve the desired response objectives. Simulations, table­top exercises (TTX), and/or Rehearsal ofConcept (ROC) Drills are well known and effective ways to help identify the actions, structures, orcapabilities needed to be better poised to respond to the realities of operating in an increasingly dangerouscyberspace environment.

While the building of entities like US Cyber Command (USCC) and the National Cybersecurity Center ofExcellence (NCCoE) are good examples of national efforts to optimize responses to anticipatedchallenges, one must consider the dimension of time. While USCC was officially established about sevenyears ago (not counting a probably lengthy staffing process preceding the final decision and publicannouncement), its subordinate Cyber Mission Force (CMF) is still years away from being fully built outand ready to effectively serve in its intended role. Anybody who has ever built a team of any type, be it inlittle league baseball or in Silicon Valley startups, understands that assembling the pieces (personnel, real,

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estate, equipment, etc.) is only the first step in a long process of making that team effective. The Cyber9/12 Student Challenge serves as just the type of exercise that gets policy wonks, technologists, and theelusive cyber­wonk hybrid to think seriously about such issues and produce innovative solutions wellbefore they are needed.  

Presentation by team from the US Military Academy at West PointDiversity really matters. 

This event is exceptionally inclusive, welcoming teams from the Ivy League, completely online schools,military academies, historically black universities, Middle America, and the coasts. The sharpundergraduate competitors, sometimes including teenagers, gave many mid­career graduate studentssome serious competition. While this article focuses on the American branch of the competition, theAtlantic Council’s European­based competition includes teams from places such as the United ArabEmirates. Such diversity of perspective is not only a good idea, but it is necessary to harvest the bestconcepts from a greater pool of brainpower. Leveraging insights from science, like the Strength of WeakTies argument, we can better understand how inclusive events like this draw upon the ideas of groups thatmay have otherwise never come into contact with one another. Ideas then emerge that can help betterinform policy, since there is such a thirst for fresh approaches within the hallowed halls of Congress, theWhite House, and beyond.

We need to remember that the population of personnel within our national security apparatus that are

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read­in to a wide range of national­level capabilities (which may have been developed over years ofsubstantial taxpayer investments) is necessarily small, since risk of disclosure (intended or not) increaseswith each individual. That small population is made further miniscule when considering how many of themactually understand those existing capabilities from a technical grounding and from what is sometimesreferred to as “the art of the possible” (requiring years of prior education and experience). Short of actuallybeing read­in to such capabilities and knowing the ins and outs of the NSC, this competition incentivizes abroad array of students to consider such scenarios before they find themselves in a position to offer realworld solutions. This competition gamifies the process of learning about what may otherwise be seen assomewhat intimidating material.

I, and many others, can attest to the real world returns on previous investments made in academia. Thebeauty of this being a competition for students is that it gives the competitors a level of freedom and timeto think about what the correct response should be, instead of being forced to make a quickrecommendation in a more operationally­focused environment surrounded by personnel that valuedecisiveness and who may have little understanding of technology. Efforts such as the Cyber 9/12 StudentChallenge ultimately grow the currently finite pool of personnel that are fluent in the ways of cyberspace,as well as national security policy.  

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Retired Major General John Davis (left) and J. L. Billingsley (right) recognize the “best military team”

We are among friends. 

The widespread support for this event by members of the MCPA is a point of pride in the American militarycyber community, as well as clear evidence that the event is consistent with the noble ideals of the MCPA.A sense of great comfort came over me as I took the podium at American University’s School ofInternational Service to congratulate the competition’s “Best Military Team,” since I was surrounded bysupportive colleagues, new and old.

For example, Major General John Davis (Ret.) not only served as a VIP judge in the final rounds of theevent and awarded the “Best Military Team” the Order of Thor medal, he is also a member of the MCPABoard of Advisors and has played a critical role in the organization’s ongoing success. Jay Healey, also anMCPA Advisor, this year served as coach of the team from Columbia University’s School of Internationaland Public Affairs. It was under his leadership as Director of the Atlantic Council’s Cyber StatecraftInitiative that the Cyber 9/12 Student Challenge was first developed. 

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Spectators and judges, including MCPA Chief of Staff Sana Saleh, listen to a presentationOther team coaches included very active MCPA members. For example, the coaches from Air University(Dr. Pano Yannakogeorgos) and Harvard University (Dr. Michael Sulmeyer) have been involved in theproduction of the MCPA’s peer­reviewed journal, Military Cyber Affairs. Two coaches from NationalDefense University (Dr. Carl Horn and Dr. Alex Crowther) have both played active roles in MCPA outreachactivities in our nation’s capital. Compounding the honor of serving as a judge alongside the biggestnames in the cyber policy world, other MCPA members served as fellow judges, including Sana Saleh(MCPA Chief of Staff) and Dr. Aaron Brantly (Army Cyber Institute Policy Fellow). 

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Presentation by team from the US Naval Academy at Annapolis       

With the increased participation of teams from military affiliated schools (including the academies at WestPoint and Annapolis), this was the first year that the event organizers invited the MCPA to recognize thebest military team. True to MCPA traditions, the winners (from Air University) were awarded the covetedOrder of Thor medal. This medal is used to recognize excellence in the American military cybercommunity. The mythological warrior Thor, who adorns the medal, wields the hammer – a tool with thepower to both build and destroy, which are characteristics shared by cyberspace. 

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The winning team from Air University wearing the Order of Thor medal, joined by Jay Healey, retiredGeneral Norton Schwartz, and other colleagues      Through the Cyber 9/12 Student Challenge, the Atlantic Council has made a true contribution to raising thelevel of the discussions surrounding cyber conflict. It is increasing the pool of those who have invested realeffort in understanding both the relevant technological and policy environments. When considering theancient truism that people fear what they do not understand, and (as Yoda teaches) fear ultimately leads tosuffering, this event may actually lower the risk of unnecessary conflicts. For all the reasons discussedabove and more, I look forward to the continued growth of this important effort.J. L. Billingsley is Founder of the MCPA, Advisor of the Cyber Security Forum Initiative, Fellow at theCenter for Network Innovation and Experimentation, PhD student at the Naval Postgraduate SchoolInformation Sciences Department, a graduate of programs at both the Army and Naval War Colleges, andserves as an officer in the US Army. The views and opinions expressed above are those of the author andare not those of the USG, US Army, or any other organization. All images are courtesy of the AtlanticCouncil photographer, Nuri Jeon.

COUNCIL IN THE NEWS

April 7, 2016